Royal Ascot Day 3

Well finally the blog got a place today after a very slow start on Day 1. Battle Of Marathon lived up to his name and fought on to finish a gallant 5th in the Hunt Cup (adv 33/1). The less said about the rest of the selections the better, and Scrutineer in particular was a bitter disappointment. Unfortunately Barroche paid the price for trying to keep up with Wesley Ward's freak of a filly and she faded into 6th. Great Page was never sighted in the finale and it is back to the drawing board for her I am afraid. Below are my selections for Day 3 and please God there is a winner or two in there.

RACE 1

This is a really tricky 2yo 5f Group 2 to get proceedings underway and soft ground form is very thin on the ground. Global Applause is the market leader at 9/4 and he has by far the strongest form in the book. He beat Mehmas earlier this season and that horse went on to frank the form by chasing home the impressive Caravaggio earlier this week. However, caution is advised as his form is all on a sound surface and his dam's best form came on good ground too. However, his sire Mayson loved to get his toe in so there is a chance he will take to the ground. 9/4 doesn't appeal to me though and at the current prices I think Peace Envoy is worth chancing.

This son of Power is trained by Aidan O'Brien and his pedigree doesn't scream speed. However, he has shown plenty of it in his three race career, winning two of them including a listed heat at Naas (6f gd) when he led and made all. He still looked very green though, and it was a similar story on his debut at Naas. There is no doubt that he has progressed with every outing, and he will have learned lots from that last run. He will definitely get further in time judging by his dam line and if stamina comes into play on the easy ground it could well play to his strengths. He is an each way price at 8/1 and it is worth chancing that he can follow in his sire's hoofsteps and win a race at Royal Ascot.

STEVOS' SELECTION: PEACE ENVOY E/W 8/1

RACE 2

This 1m 2f Group 3 doesn't really jump off the card and it is difficult to find a horse that might be overpriced. My idea of the winner is probably the O'Callaghan horse, Blue De Vega, as this son of Lope De Vega is bred to appreciate the step up in trip he gets here. There is plenty of stamina on the dam side of his family and his sire was a Group 1 winner over 10.5f on soft.

He also has some of the strongest form on offer, his stand out performance a 2L defeat to Awtaad in a listed heat at the Curragh (7f soft) on his seasonal return. Awtaad increased the gap to almost 7L when they met again in the Irish Guineas (8f yld) but it was still an excellent effort by Blue De Vega, who was only 4L behind the second Galileo Gold.  Those two horses filled two of the first three places in the Group 1 St James' Palace Stakes earlier this week so if he can reproduce that effort and improve for the longer trip he could be hard to beat, with top pilot Kieran Fallon booked for the ride.

STEVOS' SELECTION: BLUE DE VEGA WIN 5/1

RACE 3

The one that I think looks a bit overpriced here is the Ralph Beckett filly Rocaverde. There was no show from this daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar in her one race 2yo career but she looked a different animal on her seasonal comeback at Sandown (10f gd/sft). Fran Berry bounced out in front and led from pillar to post, holding off the late challenge of Shall We by half a length. That filly went on to score by 3L on her next start and she re-opposes here.

That filly is a 16/1 shot, while Rocaverde, who has presumably been held back for this by her shrewd trainer, is chalked up at 33s. Berry abandons ship to ride the more fancied Chicadoro for Beckett but he wouldn't be the first jockey to make a wrong choice. In fact, when Talent won the Oaks at 20/1 for Beckett Jim Crowley overlooked her for Secret Gesture, who was the 3/1 2nd fav. Richard Hughes was the beneficiary, landing a Classic and leaving Crowley with egg on his face. Smullen was 2/4 when riding for Beckett in 2015 and he was placed on one of those that didn't win.

Rocaverde should love the ground at Ascot as her In The Wings dam was a listed winner on heavy. Now, Rocaverde has a rating of just 86, so she needs to improve massively to take a hand here. However, Beckett doesn't usually tilt at windmills with these fillies and he wouldn't be racing here if he didn't feel she had a chance of picking up some valuable black type. If she can get away quickly there are few better jockeys from the front than Smullen and, at odds of 33/1, she should give each way players a run for their money.

STEVOS' SELECTION: ROCAVERDE E/W 33/1

RACE 4 

I have written an in depth preview for this Group 1 grueller and you can read it by clicking here.

RACE 5

The one I like here is a huge price but I think he could run a massive race and possibly reward each way support. Sheila Lavery's colt Sevenleft is by top class sire Manduro and he is bred to be better than a handicapper. He took a few races to get the hang of things as a 2yo but he found his form with a vengeance on his last two runs of the season. He travelled strongly throughout  in a 6.5f soft ground maiden at Limerick and made all, forging clear in the closing stages.

He repeated the dose in a 34k auction race on his next start on quicker ground at Naas, again getting on with it out in front and never giving his rivals a chance to land a blow. He made his seasonal return in a listed race at Dundalk and he was far from disgraced when just over 5L behind former Group 1 2nd Washington DC, who is rated 113.

His last outing was an even better effort back on the turf, 3rd behind Anamba in another listed heat at Naas. He was conceding 5lb to that filly and she was an excellent 6th in the Sandringham off a mark of 104 this week. That would suggest that this fella is actually pretty well treated off 98 and he is bred to be better than that mark too.

His dam is a full sister to a horse called Proud Citizen, a top class performer as a 3yo in the States. He was a Group 2 winner (8.5f) and then was placed in Group 1s (including 2nd in the Kentucky Derby) on his next two starts, all on the dirt. However, Manduro is a  sire that has produced plenty of classy sorts on the turf and Sevenleft looks to have followed in his father's footseps. I think his price of 50/1 is crazy and though it is an ultra competitive race I think this promising colt could run a lot better than his odds suggest for his Summerhill based handler Sheila Lavery.

STEVOS' SELECTION: SEVENLEFT E/W 50/1 (5 PLACES STAN JAMES) OR 33/1 (6 PLACES PADDY POWER)

RACE 6

No selection yet. I will update on Twitter if I do find an overpriced one. Good luck today everyone. I think we are going to need it....