York Ebor Festival Day 4 Tips

Day 4 was a complete disaster with none of our horses getting their heads in front. Dance King ran a creditable race in the opener but he could only manage 6th. Dartmouth was in front before and after the line, but he lost out on the nod. Aeolus ran an absolute stinker and Profitable wasn’t much better in the big one.

Broken Force drifted like a barge but he did show a bit of promise and he could be one to back next time out. Syphax was backed off the boards and sent off at 6/1 but he ran a very poor race and he looks to be money poorly spent by Godolphin. The only way is up after that day so hopefully the final day sees us back in the winner’s enclosure.

Cohesion could go well for David Bridgwater.

RACE 1, RACE 2 AND RACE 3

I have covered the first three races for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 4-THE EBOR

This is my favourite flat handicap of the year, mostly because I managed to find Litigant a couple of years ago at a massive price. Big priced winners are a regular occurrence in this 14f Heritage Handicap and hopefully there is another one in 2017. With 20 horses going to post it makes sense to back a couple for small stakes at massive odds in this race and I think Maleficent Queen could outrun her odds for Scottish handler Keith Dalgleish. This 5yo daughter of Mount Nelson has won 5 of her 16 starts on turf, including a win at Listed level at Ayr back in May.

She has been highly tried at times and she ran a blinder in a Group 3 at Ascot (16f) earlier this season when beaten just over 5L by Sweet Selection on quick ground. She handles any type of ground and she has won on good to soft, good and good to firm. She has yet to win beyond 12f but she clearly stays well and a fast run race over 14f could bring out the best in her. She admittedly wasn’t at her best last time in a class 2 conditions race at Musselburgh but she has been given a nice break and if the cheekpieces bring about a bit of improvement she could outrun her odds of 50/1.

Another one that could go well at a tasty price is Cohesion, a 4yo son of Champs Elysees who is trained by David Bridgwater. This gelding has looked a serious horse on his first four stats for Bridgwater after moving from France and he had the likes of Fabricate and Mistiroc in behind when winning a class 2 12f handicap at Wolverhampton back in March. He followed that up with an excellent run behind Winning Story on All Weather Championships day at Lingfield over 16f and with a clearer run he would have gone very close.

That run proved he has no shortage of stamina and he probably did too much too soon when running poorly in a Group 3 at Chantilly on his last outing in April. He has been dropped a pound to 104 for that run so he is just 3lb above his last winning mark. He has a 4lb swing in the weights with Winning Story on their Lingfield meeting and George Wood claims another 3lb off his back. Bridgwater is a trainer best known for his exploits with star chaser The Giant Bolster, but Cohesion could be the horse to help him make his mark on the level. At odds of 40/1 he is worth chancing e/w.

STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: MALEFICENT QUEEN E/W 50/1 COHESION E/W 40/1

RACE 5

The final pattern race of the Ebor Festival is the Listed Roses Stakes over 5f and I think the Richard Hannon trained filly Out Of The Flames looks overpriced at odds of 10/1. This daughter of Showcasing has been running well at a higher level than this and bar a poor run on easy ground at Newbury last time she has been very consistent. She will appreciate the drying ground at York and her trainer has already had a good 2yo winner here this week.

She won her maiden in fine style on her second start at Windsor back in May and she was pitched straight into Group 2 company at Royal Ascot next time (5f gd/fm). She ran a massive race in 3rd, 3L behind the winner Heartache and just half a length behind Happy Like A Fool. She gets a nice weight allowance from her male rivals and as Oisin Murphy is engaged in a Group 2 at Goodwood Martin Lane will come in for the ride. Her official rating of 96 leaves her with a bit to find, but I think there could be more to come from Out Of The Flames and at odds of 10/1 she is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: OUT OF THE FLAMES E/W @ 10/1

RACE 6

One horse looks criminally overpriced to me in this race and that is First Flight. Heather Main is a trainer that I have a huge amount of time for and she does exceptionally well with a small string. This 6yo son of Invincible Spirt is an ex Godolphin horse and he evidently had some issues as he was off the track for two years. He has since changed hands and his reappearance run at Newmarket was a cracking effort last month. He was beaten just a length off a mark of 95 and it showed that plenty of the old ability remained.

He wasn’t quite as good last time at Yarmouth but that came only 9 days after his Newmarket run so perhaps it came too soon. He was still only beaten 3L though so it wasn’t a complete disaster. He has been given a nice break since that run. He had strong form at York when trained by Bin Suroor, including a good 3rd beaten less than a length off 98. He is a pound lower now, quality claimer David Egan takes off another 5lb and at odds of 40/1 he has to be worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FIRST FLIGHT E/W @ 40/1

RACE 7

The one I like at a nice price here is Tahoo for Karl Burke and young apprentice Jack Duern. This 3yo former course and distance winner races off a mark of 84, just 3lb above the mark off which she won last season. Her last win came at Windsor last month off a mark of 80 and she has been off for over a month since a rare below par effort at Sandown.

I am hoping that break has sweetened her up as she is more than capable of making an impact here off  a mark of 84. Jack Duern is a jockey that has won plenty of races and from 5 rides at York he has a win and 3 top 4 finishes. Tahoo is a filly that likes to get on with things out in front and she has a decent enough draw in stall 9. If she pings the gates she is capable of making a bold bid and at odds of 22/1 hopefully she can hit the frame.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TAHOO E/W @ 22/1

York Ebor Festival Day 3 Tips

We had an up and down Day 2 at the Ebor Festival and we were just pipped for a place with Special Purpose. The Haggas filly just took too long to get going and she had to settle for 4th. A step up in trip to 7f will help this filly get her head in front. Enable ran out a facile winner of the Lowther, but Coronet did us proud by staying on late for 2nd, advised e/w at 25/1.

Fleur Forsyte was undoubtedly the highlight, staying on strongly to land the Galtres advised at 16/1. I was cursing Danny Muscutt a furlong out as I thought he had gotten there far too soon, but the daughter of Teofilo kept on dourly all the way to the line. Poet’s Princess was given a very strange ride by PJ McDonald in the last and I am not sure what he was doing. He went off way too quick and it was no surprise to see her fading badly. Still, a 16/1 winner and 25/1 place is not to be sniffed at and hopefully I can find another couple of winners on Friday.

Kevin Ryan's horses are flying.

RACE 1

Near the head of the market I think Red Galileo looks to have an excellent chance for Godolphin and Saeed Bin Suroor, but I don’t like backing horses at single figure odds in races of this nature. Tim Easterby did us a big favour on Day 1 with Wells Farhh Go in the Acomb Stakes and I think he has another fine chance here with Dance King. Stable jockey David Allan seemingly prefers the chances of Mukhayyam but the reason he is riding that horse instead of Dance King is probably because 8st 7lbs is a struggle for him to make these days.

I think Mukhayyam is handicapped to the hilt, but Dance King is very interesting off a mark of 87, just 3lb higher than for his last win. That win came back in June at Carlisle (11f gd/sft) and he was given a nice little 6 week break after that race. He made a satisfactory comeback at Haydock a couple of weeks ago and that race was likely used as a prep for a crack at this contest. He ran a cracker over this course and distance earlier this season when beaten 1.25L by Theydon Grey, who he was conceding 5lb to, and that horse has advertised that form since. His form figures at York read 22643 and I think this son of Danehill Dancer could outrun his odds for a trainer that targets races at this meeting.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DANCE KING E/W @ 25/1

RACE 2, RACE 3 AND RACE 4

I have covered these three races for Mybettingbonus and you can see my fancies by clicking here.

RACE 5

Carl Burke has had a fantastic season with his 2yo runners and he has landed quite a few touches with his juveniles. He runs a very interesting colt in Broken Force here and 7f looks the perfect trip for this son of Broken Vow to start over. His half brother Diaz went close over this trip on debut before following up next time out and this fella is sure to be primed for a big run with Martin Harley booked for the ride. Burke has fired in 17 2yo winners from 82 runners for a level stakes profit of over £50 this season.

Broken Vow is not a sire that I am overly familiar with as most of his progeny run in the USA but his stats suggest he is capable of siring very precocious 2yos. 4 of his 11 juvenile runners on these shores have won (36% strike rate) and he is 5/16 with runners from 7f to 9f (31%). Broken Force’s Diesis dam was a Listed and Group 2 winner as a 2yo, and her own dam won as a 2yo too, so Broken Force is bred to be a useful juvenile. There are few better trainers at readying one first time up, Burke has had 6 winners in the past fortnight and at odds of 25/1 a small each way interest is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BROKEN FORCE E/W @ 25/1

RACE 6

A tricky looking mile handicap closes the card on Day 3 of the Ebor Festival and a case can be made for the majority of the 15 runner field. I think last year’s Acomb winner Syphax could outrun his odds for Kevin Ryan and James Doyle, though he does have to bounce back from a couple of below par efforts on his last two starts. He was never sighted when trailing in paddy last at Newmarket in a Listed heat last time (8f gd) and he was never going well in the Dante here (10f) on his penultimate start.

However, he shaped well enough on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle in a class 2 conditions contest and a repeat of that run would see him go very close here off a mark of 100. Kevin Ryan has his string in great form at the moment, sending out 10 winners in the past fortnight. Flaming Spear won well here on Thursday and Hey Jonesy also ran a cracker from a bad draw. Syphax stayed on strongly over 7f to land the Acomb here last year, the drying ground should suit and from a decent draw in stall 10 he could reward each way support at odds of 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SYPHAX E/W @ 20/1

All Ireland Semi Final Previews

KERRY VS MAYO

Kerry made a mug out of me last weekend against Mayo and they are lucky to be getting another chance. They didn’t play to anywhere near their potential, whereas Mayo picked up where they left off against Roscommon. The deployment of Aidan O’Shea at full back was the biggest surprise of the match and while Kerry decided not to launch high balls into Donaghy he still managed to be very influential and he was directly involved in 2-4 of their total score of 2-14. It will be interesting to see if O’Shea is deployed in the same role on Saturday.

Andy Moran caused Kerry all sorts of problems last week.

Andy Moran was the star man for Mayo and he looked more like a 21 year old than a man approaching his mid 30s last Sunday. Kerry just couldn’t get out in front of him and he made hay, bagging a total of 1-5. Cillian O’Connor played an important part for Mayo too and he got a couple of crucial scores when they needed them most. It is almost unbelievable that Mayo found themselves a point down as the game entered injury time, but a last gasp point from Paddy Durcan got them out of jail.

They will do it all over again on Saturday and surely Eamonn Fitzmaurice will change Kerry’s set up defensively. Mayo seemed to be able to cut through them almost at will, and they could have been out of sight had they converted all of their chances. Mark Griffin was given the curly finger at half time but he wasn’t the only member of the Kerry full back line to underperform and any one of the three could have been hauled off.

Kerry simply can’t afford to go man to man again and if they do it could be easy pickings again for Andy Moran and co. The likes of McLoughlin and Boyle caused them all sorts of problems with their direct running from deep, and even though Kerry tried to block them off in midfield it proved an ineffective approach. I think Kerry could opt to use a sweeper on Saturday as their full back line is incapable of coping with Mayo’s full forwards in a man to man system.

There is no doubt that Kerry massively underperformed last Sunday, but that could be the kick up the arse they needed. It has to be a huge disappointment for Mayo that they couldn’t put the below par Kingdom to the sword, and we can see them rueing that missed chance. Kerry are unlikely to be as bad again on Saturday and Eamonn Fitzmaurice will take action to fix the problems that they had in the drawn game. This could be one match too far for Mayo and I think Kerry (-3 points) at odds of 11/8 is the bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KERRY -3 POINTS @ 11/8

DUBLIN VS TYRONE

There was a time when Dublin supporters would be dreading an All Ireland semi-final date with Tyrone, but those days are gone. Mickey Harte’s men gave the Boys In Blue some awful hammerings back in the day, but in recent times Dublin have had the upper hand. In 2005 and 2008, when Tyrone were at the peak of their powers, they quietened the Hill with 7 point and 12 point wins respectively, the first win coming in a replay after a 1-14 to 1-14 draw. However, Dublin won handily when they met in the Championship in 2010, and most recently in 2011, and a similar outcome could be on the cards on Sunday.

Jack McCaffrey and James McCarthy are key men for Dublin.

This version of Dublin is even better than the team that triumphed in 2011 and it is a squad with serious strength in depth. The likes of Cluxton, James McCarthy, Cian O’Sullivan, Bernard Brogan and Diarmuid Connolly played for the Dubs that day and they are still doing the business 6 years later. The emergence of new talent like Eric Lowndes, Paul Mannion, Dean Rock and Brian Fenton sees Dublin coming into this match as red hot favourites, and rightly so in my opinion.

Mickey Harte is still going strong as the manager of Tyrone and they too have a few survivors from that heavy defeat 6 years ago. Peter Harte, the Cavanagh brothers and Mattie Donnelly all played that day and they will be central figures for this team again on Sunday. Harte is bringing new blood through too with the likes of Cathal McCarron, Mark Bradley and Niall Sludden all making their marks for Tyrone in recent times. They don’t have the same strength on the bench as this Dublin team though, and that could prove to be the difference.

This will be a fascinating game from a tactical point of view, and this Tyrone team will likely opt to pack their defence. There is no secret to the modus operandi favoured by Mickey Harte at this stage of his career and Tyrone will first and foremost go out to try and stop the opposition from playing. Yes, they have clocked up big scores against the likes of Armagh, Donegal and Down this season but they were by far the superior team in those matches and it will be a different story against the free scoring Dubs.

This Dublin team is said to struggle against blanket defences but this is an area Jim Gavin has worked on and they have improved markedly when faced with a wall of tough tackling backs. They don’t get frustrated like they used to and they have the shooting ability to put the ball over the bar from distance. In any case, Tyrone will have to attack at some stage if they want to win this game and when they do Dublin have the pace, skill and accuracy to exploit any gaps left at the back and get the scores they need.

The return of Diarmuid Connolly will be a big boost to Dublin but he will have to be disciplined as you can be sure that Tyrone will target him if he starts. Dean Rock’s accuracy from placed balls could be another key factor as Tyrone may well be forced into making fouls in scorable positions. The pace of Jack McCaffrey and James McCarthy could also trouble Tyrone and with the likes of Brogan, McManamon and McCauley waiting in the wings this Dublin team has serious strength and experience to call upon if required.

Peter Harte is Tyrone’s most influential player by a long way and I love how he plays the game. He runs himself into the ground, is sound defensively and he has the vision and technique to pry open any defence with his accurate passing. Sean Cavanagh is the elder statesman on this team and his talent is well known. He is capable of putting the ball over the bar from any angle but Dublin’s backs are good enough to nullify both their threats.

The last few league meetings between these two teams have been very close contests and the last two clashes finished level. However, Jim Gavin trains this Dublin team to peak in late August and September and they will be a different proposition to the side that Tyrone drew with here in February. Jim Gavin’s men can’t afford to be complacent against a hungry Tyrone team, but The Dubs have a wealth of experience of dealing with the pressure of semi final day and we can see them pulling away late on with their subs making a big impact. Dublin -4 points in the handicap market is the recommendation.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DUBLIN (-4 POINTS) @ 6/4

York Ebor Festival Day 2 Selections

Unexpected rain scuppered the chances of Robot Boy in the opener for us yesterday and he was eased when well beaten by Jamie Spencer. Pricewise also put him up so that explains our bad luck with the weather. Wells Farhh Go more than made up for it in the Acomb, getting up in the dying strides under a perfectly timed ride by David Allan. The ‘experts’ on ITV seemed fairly dismissive of the performance, but I was quite impressed as he still looked a shade green and he showed a gritty attitude to get his head in front where it mattered.

The ground also went against Mirage Dancer, but whether he would have got anywhere near Cracksman is debateable. The Gosden horse has improved massively and he looked an absolute machine. Ulysses sluiced up in the Juddmonte, stamping his authority on the race in the final furlong. There could be even more to come from him and he is an exciting horse. Edge Of Sanity travelled well but faded badly late in the day, and Ghayadh hated the ground. Winners at 16/1 and 4/1 on Day 1 wasn’t a bad return and hopefully I can find another winner or two on Thursday.

One Word More is due a bit of luck.

RACE 1

A maximum field of 20 horses go to post in this valuable class 2 2yo race and it looks a very tricky puzzle to solve. The rain complicates matters even further and I am going to sit this one out.

RACE 2

This is a race I have covered for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 3

19 horses are due to go to post for this mile handicap and it looks a very competitive race. Tim Easterby did us a big favour with Wells Farhh Go in the Acomb yesterday and I think One Word More could be set to get back to winning ways in this mile contest. I put him up at a huge price at Goodwood (8f soft) and he just missed out on a place after encountering plenty of traffic problems. He would have won with a clear run in my opinion and he should find it easier to find the gaps at York.

He has been dropped a pound to a mark of 92 after that unlucky effort and that is the same mark off which he last won at Thirsk over two years ago. This 7yo son of Thousand Words has yet to win at York but he has run huge races here in the last couple of seasons. He went close here off 99 on two occasions last season and he was beaten just 4L in this very race off 103 a couple of years back. He handles an ease in the ground, he hails from a yard in red hot form and granted luck in running he could go very close at odds of 12/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ONE WORD MORE E/W @ 12/1

RACE 4

This is a race I have covered for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 5

This is another race I have covered for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 6

A tricky looking 7f fillies’ handicap closes the card on Day 2 of the Ebor Festival and 15 horses are due to go to post. A low draw is advantageous on the straight course at York, especially on soft ground, and from a decent starting position in stall 6 I think Poet’s Princess looks overpriced for in form handler Hughie Morrison and PJ McDonald. Morrison has had 3 winners and a 2nd from his last 8 runners and PJ McDonald has won on 2 of his 12 rides for the yard. The key to this 3yo daughter of Poet’s Voice seems to be the ground and her form on good to soft puts her right in the mix here.

Her form figures on good to soft read 9221 with the poor run coming in a Listed contest. Her sole win from 9 starts came in a Novices’ race at Newbury last June (6f gd/sft) and her best run this season came on her 2nd start back when beaten a head at Newmarket in a handicap off 84. The form of that race has worked out very well, with Ekhityaar, Quench Dolly and Holmeswood all winning since. She was well beaten on heavy in a Group 3 at the Curragh next time and the ground was a valid excuse for her below par run last time. Back on good to soft we think she is impossible to rule out and at odds of 20/1 she looks well worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: POET’S PRINCESS E/W @ 20/1 

York Ebor Festival Day 1 Tips

Passing Star finished in a frustrating 4th for us last week, and I couldn’t believe he got done for a place. He was travelling all over them 2f out and I was already counting my winnings as the race entered the closing stages. However, rather than hold on to him George Downing went for everything 1.5f from home and Passing Star emptied 50 yards from the line and ended up missing out on 3rd by a measly head. If he was ridden with a bit more patience I have no doubt he would have won, but unfortunately it goes down as a loser.

Tomorrow sees the start of one of my favourite meetings, the Ebor Festival at York, and I will be posting tips for nearly every race either here or for Mybettingbonus. The big one on Day 1 is the Juddmonte International Stakes and though only 7 horses go to post it is a very high quality renewal. There is only light rain forecast so the ground should be perfect (currently good to firm) and there will be no excuses on that front. Hopefully we get a few winners, and you can find out what I fancy on Day 1 below.

Roboy Boy looks well overpriced at York.

RACE 1

A maximum field of 20 horses go to post in the opening 5.5f handicap sprint and a case can be made for quite a few of them. A low draw is usually advantageous on the straight course at York and I think Robot Boy could be ready to bounce back to form from stall 4 with Jamie Spencer taking over in the plate. David Barron has his string in stupendous form and Spencer has rode this son of Shamardal to victory twice before.

Robot Boy hasn’t performed well on his last couple of starts but the ground wasn’t quick enough for him on either occasion. He was only beaten 3L off a mark of 99 on his last start on good to firm at Musselburgh and he is 6lb lower off 93 now. He won over course and distance off the same mark last October, Barron has had 6 winners in the last fortnight and Spencer has two wins and a 2nd from 7 rides on Robot Boy. At odds of 25/1 he is worth chancing each way in a wide open sprint.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ROBOT BOY E/W @ 33/1 (5 PLACES BETFRED)

RACE 2

I have posted a selection for this race for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what it is by clicking here after 6pm.

RACE 3

Another race I have covered for Mybettingbonus. Click here for my selection.

RACE 4

Again, I have covered this contest for Mybettingbonus so check what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 5

With a maximum field of 17 horses taking their chance in this 16.5f handicap it looks a fiercely competitive contest. The draw won’t be massively important over this distance, but if you are backing a front runner a low draw would be preferable. Ian Jardine is a trainer that I rate very highly and he is flying at the moment, sending out 2 winners from his last 3 runners. He looks to have a great chance here with Edge Of Sanity. This 8yo son of Invincible Spirit looks feasibly handicapped off 93 and his course form puts him right in the mix.

He has evidently had some problems as he was off for over two years after leaving Brian Ellison for Jardine. He made his return to action over today’s course and distance back in July and he ran an absolute blinder to be 3rd, beaten 1.5L by Theydon Grey. He is now 3lb better off with that rival, yet he is almost three times the price, and as he is likely to strip fitter with that run behind him he has to have a serious chance of reversing the form. Paul Hanagan rides and he has hit the frame on 4 of 6 rides for Jardine. Edge Of Sanity won here off 96 back in 2014, so off 3lb lower with his trainer flying and with a top jockey booked I think he is worth chancing each way at 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: EDGE OF SANITY E/W @ 20/1

RACE 6

Another race where a full quota of 20 horses will be lining up at the start for this 6f nursery handicap and it looks a wide open heat. One that could go well at a price is Ghayadh for Hugo Palmer and Josephine Gordon, a team that has been going really well in recent weeks. This son of Kyllachy won easily on debut at Beverley (5f gd/fm) and though he has been well beaten on both runs over 6f since, I think it has been the ground rather than the distance that is to blame for his defeats (soft and good).

There is no shortage of stamina in his pedigree and his half brother Raaghib won over 7.5f. His dam also won over 7f so there is no reason why he shouldn’t get 6f. He seemed to relish the rattling quick ground on his debut and this will be his first chance on similar ground since. Palmer is in great form, sending out 6 winners in the past fortnight and Josephine Gordon has 2 wins and 5 top 4 finishes from 11 rides for Al Shaqab Racing. As long as it doesn’t rain we think Ghayadh could run big, and at odds of 25/1 he is the each way selection.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: GHAYADH E/W @ 25/1 (5 PLACES PADDY POWER)

Kerry vs Mayo All Ireland Semi Final Preview

The vast majority of my posts are on horse racing these days, but now that the All Ireland football championship has reached a stage where there might actually be some competitive games I have decided to preview both semi finals. First up this weekend perennial bridesmaids Mayo, who are fortunate to be still involved, take on Kerry at Croke Park and I think their luck will run out against The Kingdom on Sunday. I will post my thoughts on Dublin vs Tyrone next week.

 

Star will cause havoc on Sunday.

Mayo have been on a downward spiral ever since Stephen Rochford (or was it the Breaffy contingent) decided to drop David Clarke in favour of Robbie Hennelly in last year’s All Ireland Final replay vs Dublin, a move that backfired spectacularly. Clarke has kept Mayo in this year’s Championship almost single handedly at times and the way he has reacted to that awful decision is testament to his character.

If Mayo had more players with the character shown by their goalkeeper they would have won at least two All Irelands in the last few years, but as the record books show they haven’t. They have somehow found ways to lose matches that they should have won handily, and they have been close to disaster against bang average teams on two occasions this summer. They were also beaten by a Galway team that was dispatched with the minimum of fuss by Kerry.

Mayo were shocking against a poor Derry team in the qualifiers and that was a match they could easily have lost. It was a similar story in the drawn game against Roscommon and though they demolished them in the replay, that was what should have happened in the first meeting. The fact that they struggled to put away those teams, and also lost to Galway in Connacht, does not bode well for their chances against a Kerry team that is on the up.

Kerry have been ticking over nicely since they beat Dublin in the League final earlier this season and while they haven’t been spectacular they have looked assured and confident. A scare against Clare is the only blot on their copybook and the way they clinically disposed of Cork and Galway was very impressive. It looked as though they didn’t need to come out of third gear to beat Galway and I got the sense there is a lot more to come from this Kerry team.

Most counties would struggle to replace a talent like the retired Colm Cooper, but Kerry have great strength in depth. James O’Donoghue has been hampered by injury for some time but he has had a good run this summer and, worryingly for the other teams left in the Championship, he will be hitting top form in the coming weeks. If he can get back to the level of 2014 when he was named footballer of the year he will be a handful for any defence and Eamon Fitzmaurice will be looking for a big performance from him on Sunday.

While Mayo lack forwards who can put the ball over the bar consistently, Kerry have a wealth of options in that area. Paul Geaney is a lethal finisher, as is O'Donoghue, and while Kieran ‘Star’ Donaghy isn’t getting any younger, he has the aerial ability to cause havoc in a Mayo full back line that has struggled all season. Mayo have to rely on the likes of Andy Moran and Cillian O’Connor for scores and while they turned on the style against a porous Roscommon defence they will find life a lot tougher against Kerry’s rearguard.

The most interesting battle in this game will be in midfield and I am a huge fan of David Moran. He has the size, but most importantly he is a fine footballer too, and he has more than enough about him to handle whatever the inconsistent Aidan O’Shea throws at him. He has developed a great partnership with the hugely talented Jack Barry in the engine room and those two are arguably the best midfield pairing in the country at the moment.

I can see Kerry launching the ball high into Donaghy often and early in this contest and if he is in the same form as in previous matches he could have a field day. Mayo’s full back line is a real weak link and the best chance they have is to try and stop the supply. Donaghy’s prowess under a high ball is unparalleled and the Mayo full back line will be having some sleepless nights in the run up to this semi final.

It would be no surprise to see Rochford employ a sweeper in front of the big man, but Donaghy’s handling means he will catch the high balls rather than break them. He has the speed of hand and mind to lay the ball off to on-running team mates and that could mean lots of goal chances for The Kingdom. I can only see one outcome in this match and that is a comfortable win for Kerry. Odds of 15/8 on Kerry (-5) look good to me, and that is the recommendation.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KERRY VS MAYO-KERRY (-5 POINTS) @ 15/8

Kubler's Star Could Shine At Salisbury

I was bitterly disappointed by the run of Debutante’s Ball in France at the weekend as I was sure she was going to run a big race. She was away well but Hamelin dropped her out the back and unfortunately, that was where she stayed. I do think she is capable of picking up some black type and perhaps she will be more competitive returned to slightly better ground.

 

Daniel Kubler has his string in super shape. 

Tomorrow I like the look of one off top weight in a class 6 handicap at Salisbury, and I reckon Passing Star is an interesting contender stepped back up to a mile and dropped in class. Daniel Kubler’s 6yo son of Royal Applause remains a maiden on grass after 12 runs, but one of his best turf runs came here over an inadequate 6f back in June when he was a never nearer 5th off a mark of 73.

He was beaten just under 4L in that class 5 contest for the win and a 6lb drop in the weights combined with the extra couple of furlongs should allow him to get even closer. He is a 4 time winner on the all weather, with two of those triumphs coming over a mile, and though he did win a claimer back in May over 6f I believe that 8f is his optimum trip, especially on turf.

He is trained by Berkshire handler Dan Kubler and he has his string in sparkling form. Mutineer is looking to complete a hat trick earlier on this card, and his form figures for his last 5 runners are 10112. George Downing, on board for Passing Star’s last win, has been booked for the ride and he has a fine record for Kubler. He has 4 wins and 11 top 4 finishes from just 37 rides for the yard, a frame hitting strike rate of 41%.

Hopefully he travels a bit better in the early stages tomorrow and doesn’t leave himself with too much to do. However, he will be staying on when others have cried enough, and he should find life easier at this lower level. Kubler is flying, it is his first start in a class 6 handicap off a career low mark, he stayed on well here over shorter back in June and over a mile I think he has every chance of hitting the frame. 16/1 looks too big and at that price Passing Star has to be worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.50 SALISBURY-PASSING STAR E/W @ 16/1

Moore’s Filly Could Have A Ball At Deauville

Sappho ran a cracking race for us on Thursday at Leopardstown to finish 2nd and as they hit the furlong pole I thought she was going to win. Colin Keane hit the front half a furlong out but unfortunately the expensive Harrington horse showed a smart turn of foot and got up for a half length win. Henry De Bromhead will be delighted with that run and she looks well capable of winning a maiden before going on to bigger and better things.

Stan Moore does well on his French raids. 

Today is a big day at the Curragh and I really like the chances of Mr Scarlet in the Group 3, while I also think Romanised is overpriced in the big one. I have tipped both horses up for Mybettingbonus and you can read why by clicking here. However, for the first time I am going to tip up a horse in France and I think Stan Moore’s filly Debutante’s Ball is a ridiculous price in the Prix Francis Boutin, a 7f  2yo Listed race. This daughter of Society Rock only cost six grand as a yearling and she was sent off an unconsidered 25/1 shot on debut at Chepstow.

She belied her cheap price tag and her massive odds in that 5f contest on good to soft, staying on strongly to score by just over a length from May Remain. That colt has gone on to win two races since and had the benefit of a previous run, while the 5th and 6th have also won so there is substance to the form. She was stepped markedly up in class next time in the Group 2 Queen Mary but she found the going a bit too tough and the good to firm ground wouldn’t have been to her liking either.

She was then entered in a Group 3 at Deauville on soft (5f) and she ran a nice enough race in 5th. She got badly outpaced early doors before staying on strongly late in the day and she ended up in 5th, only beaten just over 3L. She struggled in the Super Sprint at Newbury on her penultimate start but she ran a much better race last time in another Group 3 at Deauville, this time on good ground over 6f.

Again she was a shade outpaced and as they entered the final couple of furlongs she looked to be in big trouble out the back. However, once Tonty Piccone gave her the office she made up ground hoof over fist and she stayed on strongly for 4th, 5L behind the impressive winner but only half a length off 3rd. She was a 1.5L behind the runner up Darkanna and that filly is rated 97, so by my reckoning she should be well up to earning some black type.

The way she has finished her two races at Deauville over 5f and 6f suggest that she is crying out for 7f and she gets the step up in trip today. She is up against some unexposed types in this field, but Debutante’s Ball has the strongest form of any of them in the book and she gets a handy 3lb allowance from the boys. 

She is dropping in class, she is proven on easy ground and her trainer is in good form. With only 7 horses going to post she is probably nailed on to finish 3rd, however, I think she is criminally overpriced upped in trip and hopefully she can sneak into the first two and reward each way support at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.55 DEAUVILLE-DEBUTANTE’S BALL E/W @ 25/1

Sappho Can Outrun Odds At Leopardstown

Duke Of North was scratched earlier at Brighton after the forecast rain failed to materialise. Unbelievably, there was torrential rain everywhere in the South of the UK except down by the seaside and that just about sums up my luck in the last few days. My two tips for Mybettingbonus were also pulled out and as frustrating days go this one has been up there with the best (or worst!) of them. Hopefully my fancy for Thursday at least makes it to the track, and if she does I think Sappho looks well overpriced if she can build on a very promising debut at the Curragh.

Henry de Bromhead has a well bred filly in Sappho.

This 2yo daughter of Teofilo was sent off at a big price on debut at the Curragh (6f gd/fm) but Henry de Bromhead must have been massively encouraged by what he saw. Colin Keane settled her in rear of mid division and as the front two made their move she was stuck behind a wall of horses on the inner. She had to be switched a couple of times by Keane to get a clear run, and while the leaders had flown by the time she got, out she stayed on eye-catchingly under hands and heels for 4th.

This filly is exceedingly well bred and anyone who is a regular reader of this blog will know how highly I regard Teofilo as a sire. She is out of a very useful mare called Katla and I think her price tag of 30k euros could turn out to be an absolute snip. Katla was a dual Listed winner at 6f and she herself is out of a half sister to 2yo Group 1 winner Wootton Basset. Teofilo was also a winner at the highest level as a juvenile so Sappho is bred to be a fast filly as a 2yo.

It is encouraging that Keane has kept the faith with Sappho and he is a pilot of the highest quality. Her trainer, Henry de Bromhead, is better known for his exploits with his jumpers but he has shown he is more than able to train them for the level too. He has trained 7 winners and has had 23 places from 107 runners on the flat and the war office, who owns her, will be putting the pressure on him to get a win out of this filly.

Sappho faces the same ground and distance as she did on debut and she faces some potentially useful types here. On paper, the Michael O’Callaghan trained favourite Man Power looks the one to beat but his debut run came on yielding and the son of Dandy Man isn’t guaranteed to handle the quicker conditions at Leopardstown. Jim Bolger drops his filly New To Town in trip and she should go well, while Jessie Harrington’s expensive debutant Landshark is another potential fly in the ointment.

However, I saw enough from Sappho on debut to suggest she is well up to winning a maiden and I think she would have definitely got 3rd with a clearer passage at the Curragh. She has the pedigree, her draw in stall 6 shouldn’t be an issue and she has a top class pilot on board. I think this filly looks well overpriced at odds of 18/1 and if she gets more luck in running than last time she could go very close.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 17.15-SAPPHO E/W @ 18/1

North Could Rule Down South If Rain Arrives

Afatcat looked to be travelling ominously well into the race up the inner at Galway as they approached the turn for home, but Stephen Mahon’s charge got chopped off at the worst moment possible and any chance he had was gone. Conor Brassil went for the brave man’s route, but there is a thin line between bravery and stupidity. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out for him (or us) on Sunday, but I still rate him as a good jockey and the ride he gave Back Before Dawn for us earlier this season means he is still in the good books.

 

Jim Boyle is likely to have trained Duke Of North for this race.

Tomorrow I like the look of one at a massive price in the feature race at Brighton, and I think Duke Of North looks well overpriced for Jim Boyle with Jack Mitchell taking over in the plate. This 5yo son of Danehill Dancer was an extremely unlucky 5th in this race last season for Rhiain Ingram and with a clearer run he would have gone very close to winning. There isn't many 20k races for horses of this quality to run in, and I think it is very likely that he has been trained with a repeat bid firmly in mind.

The worry would be that the ground is currently described as good to firm at Brighton, but there is lots of rain forecast to fall before this race at 15.20. Jim Boyle has probably been performing a rain dance for the last couple of days, and hopefully his wish is granted. This gelding has shown his best turf form on good or good to soft so it makes sense to wait and see if the rain materialises before having a flutter.

Duke Of North races off a mark of 69 today, just 3lb above his last winning mark. He last emerged victorious in a class 4 handicap at Lingfield back in May off 66 and he has been lightly raced since. He ran over an inadequate 6f here 11 days later and was well beaten off 70 and he was given a nice break after that run. He made a pleasing enough return to action at Sandown a couple of weeks ago when beaten 4L after a slow start and racing wide (7f gd/sft) and that should have sharpened him up nicely for this contest.

Jack Mitchell takes over in the saddle and he has 9 wins and 7 places from 51 rides for Jim Boyle. Mitchell has ridden 7 winners and had 17 places from 74 rides at Brighton so he usually enjoys his trips to the seaside and he knows how to get the job done at this tricky track. Duke Of North has also shown an affinity for the track with a course and distance win, a 2nd, a 3rd and an unlucky 5th in this race last year from just 5 visits to the track.

He is drawn out wide but he is a hold up type so that shouldn’t inconvenience him. He is 5lb better off with last year’s winner Cricklewood Green for a 1.5L defeat so he is handicapped to turn that form around. The unexposed 3yos are obvious dangers, and given his hold up style he is likely to require luck in running and he also needs the rain to arrive. If the heavens do open I can see Duke Of North going off a lot shorter than his current odds of 25/1, and at that price he has to be worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.20 BRIGHTON-DUKE OF NORTH E/W @ 25/1 

Mahon Can Finish The Festival On A High

It was a very tough day today and only Shanghai Glory managed to hit the frame for us at 16/1. He was an unlucky 5th having been hampered around 3f out and he did well to finish as close as he did. Lucky Beggar was carried right across the track in the opener and only for that he might have challenged for a place. Across Dubai looked to be travelling well at one stage but his effort petered out in the closing stages. There was a bit of money for Jufn but he never got to the front and he is one to keep a close eye on next time out.

Stephen Mahon will be desperate to get a winner at Galway.

Jarob was probably my biggest fancy of the day but unfortunately he was scratched. Spirit Of Dreams ran a promising enough race to finish 5th in the nursery and I think another furlong would be a big help to him as he stayed on after getting outpaced. Fastidious did too much too soon and he is one to watch out for at Dundalk later in the season. Total Demolition didn’t disgrace himself but he had to challenge widest of all and at Galway that rarely ends well. Tomorrow I will be backing just one horse at Galway, and I think Afatcat can outrun his odds for local trainer Stephen Mahon.

A Galway Festival without a Mahon winner is a rare occurrence but unless he gets one tomorrow it will be a reality. He has had a few horses run well, USA and Stormey for example, but I think Afatcat represents one of his best chances of the week in the opening handicap hurdle at 14.15. This former course and distance winner is burdened with top weight off a mark of 114, but Conor Brassil eases the burden with his 4lb claim and that could make a big difference for this 9yo son of Araafa.

This fella is at his very best on decent ground, but he has plenty of placed form in the book on soft, including around here. He has had four runs since the start of May and he has been ultra consistent without getting his head in front. He is likely to have been campaigned with this race firmly in mind and he ran a lovely last prep race at Limerick (16f gd) a month ago. He was a good 5th under Robbie Dunne and he should be in peak condition tomorrow.

He is a pound lower than when runner up at this festival on good ground last season and that was a race he should have won. Chris Timmons lost his irons after the last and he ended up being beaten just half a length by Camlann. He was also a good 2nd here in July 2015 on soft off a mark of 93, beaten just a couple of lengths by the exceedingly well handicapped Dollar And A Dream.

The booking of Conor Brassil is a plus in my view and he is a jockey with a big future. He is worth every ounce of his 4lb claim and he has 2 wins and 4 top 4 finishes from 18 rides for Mahon. It is an interesting stat that Afatcat has been claimer ridden for 3 of his 4 career wins and he has been at least 10/1 for 3 out of the 4 wins also. Mahon will be desperate to get a winner on the board so you can be sure this lad will be doing his best and once the ground doesn’t turn heavy I think he is well worth backing each way at 20/1 with 5 places on offer from a number of bookies.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.15 GALWAY-AFATCAT E/W @ 20/1 (5 places)

Galway Festival Day 6 Selections

The action continues at Ballybrit on Saturday and stamina reserves will need to be tapped into if punters are to survive the last couple of days. We got off to a decent start on Day 5 with Stormey running into a place in the opener. The Gatechecker was also placed, but only for Jody McGarvey inexplicably going wide after the last I think he would have won. Tara Dylan was given way too much to do by Ronan Whelan and though she stormed up the hill it was too late.

 

Jarob could go well for Andy Lynch.

Cosy Club, Delegating and Wild Shot got racing far too early in the 8f handicap at 19.55 and it was no surprise that all three faded in the closing stages. I am not sure Cosy Club appreciated the testing conditions either and he is a hard horse to catch right. Tomorrow is a day where quantity takes precedence over quality and it looks a very tricky card. I have had a look though, and you can read my thoughts below.

RACE 1

A nice easy race to get the action started on Saturday with a 20 runner maiden hurdle. No bet in this for me.

RACE 2

20 horses are due to go to post in this 2m 7f handicap hurdle and one that looks well overpriced is the Andy Lynch trained 10yo Jarob. This son of Beat All has been a great servant to connections, winning five races under rules, including four hurdles. His last win came in a handicap hurdle at Punchestown back in 2015 off 130 and he gets to race off the same mark here.

He was last sighted at the beginning of last month returning from a break with a very respectable run at Bellewstown over an inadequate trip of 2 miles. That run should have blown away the cobwebs and it should leave him spot on for a repeat bid in this race. He was 5th in this last season off 132 and with Shane Shortall’s claim he is effectively 5lb lower here. Shortall won on his only previous ride for this trainer/owner combination and at odds of 33/1 I think a big run could be forthcoming.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JAROB E/W @ 33/1

RACE 3  

No bet in this race for me.

RACE 4

8 juveniles go to post in this 7f nursery and Joseph Murphy’s filly Deep Breath is a warm order to get off the mark in handicap company off the same mark off which he ran so well last time at the Curragh. However, she will be racing on very different ground here and at a much bigger price perhaps Spirit Of Dreams can run well on her first handicap start off a mark of 69 returned to soft ground. This daughter of Dream Ahead is yet to hit the frame after four runs in maidens, and she was well beaten on her debut on soft at Navan (5f).

However, Denis Hogan is not a trainer associated with first time out 2yo winners so I wouldn’t read too much into that run. She showed she had at least some ability when a promising 5th on quick ground at Leopardstown (7f) and though she disappointed last time I think the combination of first time cheekpieces, soft ground and the 7lb claim of Sean Davis could spark an improved performance and at odds of 20/1 she is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SPIRIT OF DREAMS E/W @ 20/1

RACE 5

Yet another big field with 16 going to post for this 7f handicap and I am sticking with Sean Davis who rides for his boss Michael O’Callaghan. These connections had a winner earlier in the week with Perfect Soldier and I think Fastidious could run a big race for them here. This prominent racer has been handed a lovely draw in stall 3 and he will have no problems with the easy surface.

He races off a mark of 69 with Davis taking off another 7lb, so he is effectively 16lb below the mark off which he last won on turf at Leopardstown (7f sft off 78). It has been quite a while since he showed his best form on grass and he was reported to be coughing after he ran here last year. He was only beaten 3L off 83 here back in 2015 in a much better race (7f sft) and with his yard in good from and from an ideal draw I think he could outrun his odds of 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FASTIDIOUS E/W @ 20/1

RACE 6

Another massive field with a maximum field of 16 horses due to line up and the one that looks a bit overpriced to me is the Jimmy Larkin trained habitual slow starter Total Demolition. This deeply frustrating sort had no chance here a couple of days ago after falling out of the stalls but he will hopefully get away a bit better here if a first time hood sharpens up his ideas. His last win came here at the festival over a mile a year ago off a mark of 69 and he remains 7lb above that rating.

However, Conor McGovern takes off 5lb so he is effectively racing off 71 and that should allow him to be competitive. This trip of 12f is no problem as he has run well over it before and he was a good 2nd to Roconga over 12f on bad ground at Fairyhouse back in September. He isn’t a horse for maximum faith, but if he doesn’t blow the start he has the ability to be involved at the finish and at odds of 25/1 he could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TOTAL DEMOLITION E/W @ 25/1

RACE 7

No bet for me in this bumper.

Glorious Goodwood Day 5 Selections

Well, what a frustrating day that was…Second Step found just one too good in the opener, keeping on well but not well enough for the win. Make Time ran a cracking race in the Thoroughbred Stakes but he had to play second fiddle to the favourite. I had a nice ante-post bet on him at 16/1 so although I was happy to take a place I was a bit disappointed that he didn’t win it. I still firmly believe that Make Time is capable of winning stakes races and a different style of track might be the answer.

David Griffiths does well at Goodwood.

One Word More ran a cracker to grab 5th but yet again he was short of room and it could have been so much better (and to rub salt into my wounds he cost me the placepot). Profitable bumped into a high class sprinter in Battaash and the Charlie Hills horse looks top notch. Gift In Time ran a nice enough race to finish 3rd and Shymkent got no luck in running in the unlucky last, staying on well when the gaps came for 4th. We are due a change of luck so hopefully we get a winner or two on the final day.

RACE 1

The opener on the final day of Glorious Goodwood is the consolation race for the Stewards’ Cup and it looks a very tricky puzzle to solve with 20 horses due to go to post. As we saw yesterday an inside draw has proved to be a huge positive and I think Lucky Beggar can go well here from a decent pitch in stall 7. David Griffiths is a trainer that has his string in good form and this 7yo son of Verglas can bounce back from a couple of below par efforts on quick ground.

Lucky Beggar was once rated as high as 107 when trained by Charlie Hills but he had a long spell in the doldrums and in the summer of 2016 he was sold and moved to the David Griffiths yard. It didn’t take the promising trainer long to turn his fortunes around and he has already won two races with him this season, handicaps at Wetherby (5.5f gd off 76) and Catterick (6f gd/fm off 83).

He ran really well at Chester on two occasions off 87 and 86 on easy ground in June and he won’t mind the conditions at Goodwood. He ran a cracking race on his only previous visit to the track in July 2015 off a mark of 99, beaten 5L from a very wide draw in stall 15. He is better drawn here and he has plenty of early speed so if he gets a good start I think he can make a bold bid for Silvestre de Sousa, who has won on one of his two previous rides for Griffiths.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: LUCKY BEGGAR E/W @ 22/1

RACE 2

Another big field with 14 horses going to post but over a trip of 1m 6f the draw might not be massively important. Felix Mendelssohn hasn’t been handed the best of starting positions in stall 7 but Joseph O’Brien’s 6yo son of Galileo looks ready for the step up to 14f after a fast finish over 12f on yielding ground at the Curragh last time. That was just his 2nd run for O’Brien since leaving David Simcock and it was a big step up from his poor first run over timber.

His only win from 11 starts came on his second run at Navan when scoring in a 12f maiden on yielding ground. Felix Mendelssohn races off the same mark of 93 as at the Curragh last time and with that run under his belt he should fit and ready to rock. Fran Berry looks a good jockey booking and at odds of 12/1 Felix Mendelssohn looks well worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FELIX MENDELSSOHN E/W @ 12/1

RACE 3

Few jockeys are riding with more confidence than Ryan Moore at the moment and he looks to have outstanding claims on the favourite Crystal Ocean. However, I think it might be worth chancing one at a bigger price and Across Dubai looks an interesting runner for William Haggas and Pat Cosgrave. This 3yo son of Cape Cross is totally unexposed and he looked a talented horse when winning a 10f handicap at Haydock last time out off a mark of 85 on good to firm.

He will be encountering very different ground today and he is markedly up in class, but his dam’s half sisters Laaheb and Ruwaiyan (both by Cape Cross) were effective on soft ground so there is every chance he will handle it. It is a big step up in grade to Group 3 company, but his shrewd trainer Mr Haggas isn’t usually one to tilt at windmills and I think Across Dubai can outrun his generous odds of 12/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ACROSS DUBAI E/W @ 12/1

RACE 4

This is a race I have covered for Mybettingbonus and you can find out what I fancy by clicking here.

RACE 5

Not a race I will be having a bet in and one to watch with a view to the future.

RACE 6

With only 7 horses going to post I won’t be going big on this 7f handicap. If I was forced to have a bet I would probably chance the bottom weight Colonel Frank. He is a course and distance winner, he is by Dutch Art so he should handle the ground and Ed Walker has had three winners in the past fortnight. He is a tentative each way selection for very small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COLONEL FRANK E/W @ 14/1

RACE 7

A devilishly difficult handicap to close the card on the final day of Glorious Goodwood and a good draw will be pivotal in this 9f handicap. Jufn is well drawn in stall 3 and he could be set for a big run for John Butler and Tim Clark. He needs to bounce back from a poor effort last time but he got racing far too soon that day and he will hopefully get to dictate from front in this contest.

He won a shade comfortably on his penultimate start off 75 and he is racing off just 4lb higher here. This is admittedly a much tougher contest but this 4yo son of Nayef is lightly raced for his age and there could be more to come. He ran a nice race on soft in a first time hood at Leicester three runs back and if Clark can get his fractions right he could outrun his odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: JUFN E/W @ 33/1

Galway Festival Day 5 Selections

Tribal Path was the only selection to hit the frame for us at Galway on Day 4 and Damian English’s stable star ran a cracking race. Only for Cardiuil pestering him Foley might have been able to get a breather into him, but even though he got tired he kept on well for 3rd at 11/1. Don’t Touch it ran a bitterly disappointing race and died a death once they turned for home. Smoulder got no sort of run and was hampered a couple of times in the listed race won by her stablemate Music Box.

Adrian Keatley is flying.

Project Bluebook wasn’t given the best of rides by Brian Hughes but he ran a nice enough race to finish 6th. He was trapped wide the whole way and was given far too much to do, but he stayed on well up the hill and there are nice races to be won with the promising 4yo in the future. The biggest disappointment was Bog War, who I advised at 22/1. He was heavily backed and sent off at just 6/1, but he went out like a light under an aggressive ride by Leigh Roche and he obviously wasn’t race fit. As the old song goes, things can only get better, and below are my thoughts on Day 5.

RACE 1

As the week progresses in Galway the quality of race declines and finding winners becomes very difficult. You often get horses reappearing that raced earlier in the week and knowing what sort of shape they are in adds to the difficulty of finding those elusive winners. Heavy showers on Thursday will likely have gotten into the ground and conditions could be testing on Friday.

I have tipped up a couple of Stephen Mahon horses this week with no joy, but I think his luck could change with Stormey in this 2 mile handicap hurdle. I am not usually one for tipping up horses that have won their last couple, especially handicappers, but this lad was very impressive last time when hacking up at Bellewstown. He is only a 7yo so he could be still on the improve and I think he can cope with a 10lb rise for that win. He won his maiden on soft, he has been targeted at this race and I think he looks overpriced at odds of 12/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: STORMEY E/W @ 12/1

RACE 2

No bet for me in this 2yo maiden.

RACE 3

At a nice price, I think The Gatechecker looks an interesting contender here for Michael Hourigan and Jody McGarvey in this 2m 6f handicap chase. The JP McManus owned 7yo son of Classic Cliché has hit the frame on 3 of his 9 starts since going chasing. He gained his sole win over fences off 109 at Naas (19.5f sft) and he has run well off higher marks since that win.

He ran a cracker behind the well handicapped Killaro Boy at Gowran back in February when beaten 2L off 117 (20f hvy) and he ran a lovely race behind Eiri Na Casca last time over 20f at Tipperary on good to yielding. He is a former p2p winner so he should have no issues up in trip and he was narrowly beaten over timber at today’s trip of 2m 6f. He won’t mind a drop of rain, his trainer does well at Galway (4 wins 13 top 4 finishes from 38 runners) and at odds of 16/1 he is the each way selection in a wide open race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: THE GATECHECKER E/W @ 16/1

RACE 4

Tara Dylan is the one I like here for the in form Tom Mullins yard. This daughter of Dylan Thomas has risen a fair way in the handicap since winning here last season (12f soft) off a mark of 61 and she is now rated 20lb higher. However, she showed at Leopardstown two runs back that she is capable of getting involved off this mark, beaten just over a length on ground plenty quick enough for her (13f gd/fm).

She should appreciate the return to softer ground at Galway and as she showed last year she will relish the stiff uphill finish. She has had just the two outings so far this season and Mullins is likely to have trained her with this meeting firmly in mind. She wasn’t disgraced in Listed company last time, she has a decent enough draw in stall 6 and at odds of 12/1 she is the each way suggestion in an open looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TARA DYLAN E/W @ 12/1

RACE 5

No bet for me in this tricky looking maiden.

RACE 6

Delegating is the fav for this tricky looking handicap but Michael O’Callaghan’s daughter of Delegator is poorly drawn in stall 14 and she can’t afford to be tardy from the gate like she was here earlier in the week. Adrian Keatley is a trainer that has his string in superb form and I think Cosy Club can build on his excellent run at Ayr last time out.

This very well bred son of So You Think has been a deeply frustrating sort but Keatley seems to have found the key to him based on his battling win at Ayr on ground plenty quick enough for him. He should be suited by the easier surface at Ballybrit on Friday and the step up to a mile should be no problem. Danny Sheehy is on the way to becoming one of the best pilots around and his 7lb claim could prove to be invaluable. Cosy Club is only 4lb higher than for his Ayr win, he is drawn to attack in stall 4 and at odds of 10/1 he is the each way selection in an open looking race.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: COSY CLUB E/W @ 10/1

RACE 8

No bet for me in this race. 

Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Selections

It was one of those days at Goodwood today with none of my selections hitting the frame. Morning Suit was never travelling and while at one stage he looked like challenging he finished well beaten. Diamonds Pour Moi travelled strongly but the tank emptied a furlong out and she was beaten a long way. It was a similar story with Green Power, though he did show a fair amount of promise and could benefit from a drop back in trip.

Tim Easterby has been in superb form in recent weeks.

Sobetsu ran a cracker in the Nassau, attempting to make most and finishing a creditable 3rd behind the impressive winner Winter. The O’Brien filly is a classy operator and she ploughed through the mud without any problems. Jedi Master also ran a cracking race, just missing out on a place by a head and the win by less than a length. If he didn’t get trapped wide he may have got up. Poet’s Society ran a stinking race in the unlucky last, so hopefully we can get some of our money back on Day 4.

RACE 1

Day 4 gets under way with the Group 3 Glorious Stakes and the one to be on here is Second Step. Soft ground form is at a premium in this race and Roger Charlton’s 6yo son of Dalakhani has shown he can handle an ease on a few occasions. His last three wins have come on good or better, but he was a listed winner on yielding at the Curragh back in 2014 and he won his maiden on good to soft. He has run well on all three outings this season, 3rd in a Group 3 on his reappearance at Newbury and scoring in a listed race over today’s course and distance on his next start.

He found only Lord Yeats, who re-opposes here, too good at Newmarket last time in another listed event (12f gd/sft) and a 2lb pull in the weights should enable him to reverse that form. Charlton has his string in good form (2 wins 4 places last 13 runners) and Jamie Spencer has been on board for his last two wins. He has strong course form, he should handle the ground and at odds of 6/1 Second Step is capable of going very close.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SECOND STEP WIN @ 6/1

RACE 2

Another Group 3 and I am very sweet on the chances of Make Time in this contest. David Menuisier’s son of Makfi is a horse I have followed since his debut and I have always seen him as Group class. He was narrowly beaten on debut but he made no mistake on his next start at Salisbury, demolishing a decent field over 7f on soft ground.

I backed him and tipped him ante-post for the Greenham but he ran a very disappointing race. However, Menuisier’s horses were sick at the time and he is better judged on his last run when hosing up in a handicap at Sandown off a mark of 91. His rating of 103 leaves him with a bit to find on the figures, but he is proven on soft unlike the majority of his rivals and I think he can win this before going on to bigger and better things in the future.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MAKE TIME WIN @ 7/2

RACE 3

With 19 runners going to post luck will be required in this race, and one horse that deserves a break is the Tim Easterby trained One Word More. Easterby has been firing in the winners in recent weeks and this fella was only beaten 4L in this race last year off a mark of 99 and with a clear run he may well have won. He is running off a 6lb lower mark today and he will handle the soft ground.

This quirky customer isn’t the easiest of rides and he tends to race lazily at times before coming to life in the closing stages and finishing fast. His last win came all the way back in April 2015 (off 92), but he has plenty of placed efforts off much higher marks. He seems to be best suited by big fields, and if he gets a bit of luck in running he is capable of going very close at odds of 33/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: ONE WORD MORE E/W @ 33/1

RACE 4, 5 AND 6

I have covered these three races for Mybettingbonus and you can check my fancies by clicking here.

RACE 7

The one I like at a big price here is the David O’Meara trained 3yo son of Pivotal Shymkent. It is no secret that Pivotal’s offspring are usually effective on a softer surface and this gelding has already shown he relishes a bit of cut. He prevailed by the narrowest of margins at Carlisle the only time he has encountered soft ground (11f soft) and his maiden win came on good so he won’t mind if it dries out a touch.

Shymkent was last sighted in a red hot handicap at Royal Ascot and he was far from disgraced in 10th behind Atty Perse. The good to firm ground was likely too quick for him that day and he has been eased in the handicap to a mark of 90. His win at Carlisle came off just 4lb lower so he should be able to get competitive and the 3rd and 4th from that race have both won since. With trip and ground to suit and a decent draw in stall 4, Shymkent is the each way suggestion at odds of 20/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SHYMKENT E/W @ 20/1