2000 Guineas Preview

The first big flat race of the year on this side of the pond, and unusually  there is no real stand out contender. Aidan O'Brien saddles the favourite, Gleneagles, and having had four of the last ten winners any runner from his yard deserves the utmost of respect. Below is a summary of the runners and riders and a quick outline of what I believe to be their prospects.

1. BOSSY GUEST   Mick Channon/Charles Bishop
Outsider, currently available to back at 100/1. Probably aiming a bit high here. Did his winning at       6f last year and  reappeared this year over that trip and won again. Yet to conclusively prove he gets a mile. There is a decent chance he will, as there are bits and pieces of stamina in his pedigree. Even if he does stay though it is difficult to see him troubling the very best of  these.

2. CAPELLA SANSEVERO  Ger Lyons/Oisin Murphy 
Irish raider who won four last year at up to 6f, including a listed race and a group 3. Came up short though with ground conditions in his favour in the Middle Park behind Charming Thought. Also found wanting behind Kool Kompany on fast ground at the Curragh. By exciting young sire Showcasing, who's first crop have made a big impression so far. The dam line suggests that a mile should not be a problem, but I think this horse would perhaps have had a better chance if there was some give underfoot. Odds of 66/1 an accurate reflection of his chances, unless the heavens open overnight.

3. CELESTIAL PATH   Mark Prescott/Luke Morris 
An intriguing contender, who finished third behind today's adversary Elm Park over a mile on soft ground  in the Racing Post Trophy. Had previously won a maiden (7f) and a listed race (8f) in taking fashion on a sound surface. By Footstepsinthesand, a previous winner of this race, and closely related to  group 1 winner Chachamaidee (8f) and group 3 winner J Wonder (7f). Bred for the job, has the perfect draw in 1 and ground conditions in his favour. Everything points toward a big run from this fella and looks overpriced at 25/1.

4. CODE RED  William Muir/Martin Dwyer
Outsider currently priced up at 150/1. Listed winner (6f, soft) last season, but looks out of his depth here.

5. DUTCH CONNECTION  Charles Hills/William Buick
Maiden and group 3 winner (both 7f fast ground) who came up short on his final 2yo start behind today''s opponent Gleneagles when stepped up to group 1 company at the Curragh. His full sister Dutch Romance had a similar 2yo season but didn't progress as a 3yo, and that has to be the worry with this horse. Should have no problem getting a mile on pedigree (dam half sister to useful hurdler Baltimore Rock) but I think the 20/1 available is too short and he will struggle to reverse that form with Gleneagles, even over this extra furlong.

6. ELM PARK  Andrew Balding/Andrea Atzeni 
Four time winner last year, including the group 1 Racing Post trophy on rain sodden ground at Doncaster. However, had shown that fast ground holds no fears with victory in the Royal Lodge over this course and distance on fast ground on his previous start. Students of pedigree will be scratching their heads with this one, as black type is difficult to find. His form can't be faulted, and he is the choice of stable jockey Andrea Atzeni over Qatar bloodstock's other runner Capello Sansavero. Should stay further than a mile, but still respected none the less as his form is among the strongest on offer. 12/1 a fair price.

7. ESTIDHKAAR  Richard Hannon/Paul Hanagan 
Dual group 2 winner (7f good, good to soft) who made a very encouraging reappearance in the Greenham a couple of weeks ago behind Muhaarar, beaten half a length and keeping on strongly giving the impression that he would come on for the run, and also that a mile would be no problem. Half brother to the stable's Toormoore, who was well fancied in this last year and was beaten less than 5 lengths by the stable outsider Night Of Thunder. The choice of Paul Hanagan of the Maktoum pair. Respected and at 8/1 will be the pick of many. Decent draw too in 6.

8. GLENALMOND  Karl Burke/Kieran Fallon
Full brother to fellow Northern hero Wootton Bassett, a group 1 winner at 2. Doesn't look to possess the same ability though, and with stamina doubts and holes aplenty to pick in his form his current price of 66/1 looks justified. The potential fly in the ointment is the booking of Kieran Fallon, who has an excellent record in this race, but he will have to pull something special out of the bag if he is to get this horse home in front.

9. GLENEAGLES Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore
From a yard that always has to be respected in this race, and that has been showing signs of a revival after their characteristically slow start to the season. Unsurprisingly this horse is regally bred, being a full brother to 1000 guineas winner Marvellous out of a full sister to Giants Causeway. On the track he has been unbeaten since his first run, bar a harsh disqualification on his last run of the season in the grand criterium when he was first past the post. This race has been the target, the inimitable Ryan Moore rides and the 11/4 currently available won't last. I can see punters latching onto this one and he is a worthy favourite. One possible negative could be the draw as he is out wide, but usually if the horse is good enough it'll win anyway, and he won't lack for assistance from the saddle.

10. HAIL THE HERO  David O'Meara/Danny Tudhope
Ballydoyle cast off, who wasn't disgraced behind Kool Kompany in the Craven here after winning a weak Doncaster maiden (7f) on his previous start. An awful lot to like about his pedigree, as he is by Galileo and out of Mauralakana, an absolute superstar of a mare (multiple group and listed winner from 6-10f  on ground varying from heavy to firm) he is certainly bred to be useful, but on form he has an awful lot to find with the principals here. Might prove to be a shrewd purchase in the future, as his dam did nothing but progress throughout her career, and could be one to outrun his odds of 125/1 for his up and coming trainer. Drawn in stall 9.

11. HOME OF THE BRAVE  Hugo Palmer/James Doyle
Very impressive winner on his seasonal return, but it must be remembered it was a only a listed handicap and off a mark of 102. Had run respectably behind Burnt Sugar in a group 3 on the all weather previously.This will be a very different test, and he will have a lot more on his plate, as is reflected in his odds of 33/1. By Starspangledbanner, so stamina could be an issue, but on the upside there is plenty of it in the dam line. Has a fair few pounds to find with the principals here and needs to improve a lot if he is to figure. Probably one for another day. Drawn out in the car park too in 17.

12. INTILAAQ  Roger Varian/Dane O'Neill
The unknown quantity of the race and the Maktoum "second string". Beaten as a 2yo in a maiden at the tail end of the year, that form would give him no chance in a race like this. However, one couldn't fail to be impressed by the manner of his maiden win on his return, making all and quickening away in the manner of a very smart horse. His dam was also beaten as a 2yo, before going on to taste victory at the highest level as a 3yo (8f Good to Firm). Paul Hanagan chooses the owners other runner, but that could turn out to be a blessing for Dane O'Neill, who gets the leg up on this one and  is a more than capable replacement. It wouldn't be the first time that a jockey has chosen the wrong one, and it certainly won't be the last. Drawn in stall 11.

13. IVAWOOD  Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes 
Represents last years winning stable, which has four bullets to fire this time around. Gauging their best hope through jockey bookings is impossible, as both Moheet and Estidkhaar will be ridden by retained jockeys. You would imagine Hughes had the pick of the other two, and he has plumped for this one. I would imagine it wasn't an easy decision after seeing what Kool Komapny did on his seasonal return, but this horse was one of the best 2yos of 2014 and i'm not surprised Hughes has kept the faith. A mile should be fine on pedigree, if not guaranteed, but I'm not sure if he has the class to win this race. Odds look a little cramped to me at 12/1 and there is better value to be found elsewhere.

14. KOOL KOMPANY  Richard Hannon/Pat Dobbs
Another Hannon inmate, this horse caused a surprise  in the Craven on his seasonal return when lowering the colours of his well touted stablemate Moheet, who re-opposes today. Disregarded by Hughes, Pat Dobbs takes the ride, and this horse needs to improve again if he is to take a hand. He is unexposed at the trip though, and is a tough customer who won't shirk a battle. Hannon won this with a 40/1 shot last year so at odds of 28/1 Kool Kompany could ruffle a few feathers from his decent draw in 7, and give each way value seekers a run for their money.

15. MOHEET  Richard Hannon/Frankie Dettori
There was some amount of talk about this horse in the run up to his reappearance in the Craven. He could only manage third behind his unfancied stablemate Kool Kompany, but looking back at the race again he didn't run too badly, and Frankie wasn't exactly over aggressive with him either when he realised he couldn't win. He stayed on nicely enough,after missing the break, and you would think if he starts better he has every chance of reversing the form with Kool Komapny. His dam is very well related, while not being overly talented herself, and this son of High Chapparal should not be discounted lightly at a big price. Drawn out in stall 15.

16. OL MAN RIVER  Aidan O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien
The second of the two O'Brien entries, with his son Joseph taking the reins. Bred to be good, being by Montjeu and out of Jim Bolgers 100 Guineas winner Finsceal Beo. Dotted up in what looked at the time a weak group 2 on paper, but the form was at least given a boost with Convergance  subsequently winning a listed race on his reappearance this year at Dundalk. At the prices he would look to be the stable second string, but on paper they are very hard to split. On the bare figures he only has a couple of pound to find with his stablemate, so at the current price of 15/2 he definitely represents value. Great draw in stall 2.

17. RIDE LIKE THE WIND  Freddie Head/Maxime Guyon
I am no expert on French form, so i'm not going to pretend that I am. I do know that Freddie Head is no mug, and he wouldn't be travelling over here unless he believed he had a realistic chance. Beautifully bred, with plenty of black type in his pedigree, but worryingly a lot of the best form on offer in it is on easy ground. He won't get those conditions tomorrow and it would be a surprise if he had the speed for this sort of test on fast ground. Currently priced up at 33/1 looks to have only an outside chance. Well drawn in 3.

18. ROOM KEY Eve Johnson Houghton/Jimmy Fortune
Only rated 103, and on all known form should be set for a struggle here. Will probably be of more interest later in the season stepped up in trip.

19. TERRITORIES Andre Fabre/Mikael Barzalona
Last but not least we have French raider Territories, the sole representative for the boys in blue Godolphin and trained by the French master Andre Fabre. Impressive on his return in a group 3 at Longchamp, after a near miss at the highest level on his final run last year. The big worry for me with this one is the ground, as both his form and his pedigree say that he would be best with a bit of cut in the ground. The current price of 6/1 looks way too short to me, as he is drawn widest of all too.


CONCLUSION
As can be seen from the above, picking a winner in this is no easy feat. The two O'Brien runners make the shortlist, as does Moheet from the Hannon yard from an each way perspective. The two Maktoum horses both have solid claims too, particularly Intilaaq. However, the one I like at the prices and that looks a solid each way bet is CELESTIAL PATH for the Prescott/Morris combination. Unbeaten on fast ground, bred for the job and the plum draw, this horse has plenty in his favour and will hopefully run a big race tomorrow.

Selection: Celestial Path each way 20/1.-
Daithi MacStiofain