1. CEASELESS James Tate/David Probert
Ifraaj filly who was beaten twice in maidens last year before reappearing this year with a victory over 7f at Newmarket, winning in the manner of a horse that will appreciate the step up to a mile. Extremely well bred on the dam side, being out of a half sister to Group 1 winners Oath (Epsom Derby 12f) and Pelder (Prix Ganay 10.5f) which suggests that she will get the mile no problem, and probably a bit further in time too . On her second start last year she finished 2nd, a neck ahead of Lady Of Dubai, who was a neck behind Irish Rookie on her next start, form that has been well advertised since with Irish Rookie running well in the 1000 Guineas and a close second in the French equivalent beaten 3/4 of a length. Harvre De Paix, who she beat in her maiden, also ran with credit in a listed event in France on her next start. On breeding this filly should turn out to be very smart, her form stands up to scrutiny, and her current odds of 20/1 look way too big to me. Drawn in Stall 6.
2. JELLY MONGER Dominic Ffrench Davis/Graham Lee
A winner of her maiden at 66/1 on debut, and instantly upped in class to Group 3 level, she hasn't been disgraced. On her last run, in The Fred Darling, she finished a creditable 4th, a couple of lengths behind Tiggy Wiggy, gaining an official rating of 96, the second best in the field. She is by Strategic Prince, so a mile should be fine, and her dam is a half sister to the group placed Aleutian. However, her pedigree does not appeal as much as some of her rivals, and while she should run her race I'm not sure if she is good enough to win, even though today is a drop in class. Her current price of 20/1 seems fair, and if some of her rivals fail to live up to their reputations this filly could run into a place. Should give each way backers a run for their money. Drawn widest in Stall 12.
3. MEHRONISSA Ed Vaughan/Danny Tudhope
This filly won her maiden in good style, and had a couple of subsequent maiden winners in behind. Another by Ifraaj, she is a half sister to the useful Three Degrees, a group 3 winner and group 1 placed (both 9f) horse in America.On pedigree a mile should be fine, as should good ground, but the worry has to be her reappearance run in a handicap at Lingfield off 77, where she finished well beaten. Will need to step up on that in a big way to figure here, and whilst it is not impossible she can improve I think she is best left alone and watched today at odds of 66/1. Drawn in stall 5.
4. MOTHERS FINEST Karl Burke/Silvestre De Sousa
Unraced as a 2yo, this filly made her debut last month, finishing a close second to Udododontu, who advertised the form here earlier this week. She went on to win her next start, again over a mile at Haydock, and steps up in class today having earned an official rating of 84. By Tamayuz, a big speed influence, and out of a half sister to listed (6f) and group 3 (9f) winner Coney Kitty. She holds an entry for the Irish Guineas so Mr Burke obviously holds her in some regard, but I think her odds of 7/1 are a bit on the skinny side, as she still has to prove she belongs at this level, and her form is not as strong as some of the other contenders here. Too many doubts for me and I'll be leaving this one alone for today.
5. PACK TOGETHER Richard Hannon/Ryan Moore
Won a decent maiden in good style on her first start, and ran a cracker stepped up to listed company (7f) on her next outing, behind Alonsoa, who subsequently ran well in a group 3. By Paco Boy, and out of a dual listed (9f) and group 1 (9f) winner, so a mile should be well within her capabilities. Her trainer is well capable of readying one first time out so the lack of a recent run is not a huge worry. However, Richard Hughes, who rode on her first two starts, has opted to go elsewhere today and whilst Ryan Moore is a more than capable deputy, this has to be seen as a slight negative. Her current price of 10/1 suggests that there is not a huge amount of confidence behind her today, and as a result I think she is best watched. Drawn in stall 8.
6. REALTRA Richard Fahey/Tony Hamilton
Dark Angel filly who looks exposed in relation to some of her rivals. Out of a useful mare who was difficult to win with (one win and seven 2nds from 18 starts) and a half sister to group 2 winner (12f) Supreme Rabbit. Has had nine runs already, and had to drop back into handicap company to get her head in front last time out, looking suited by the step up to 7f. That was off a mark of 93, so it was an impressive display, and judging by her pedigree a mile should be well within her compass. Is officially the highest rated horse in the race at 98, and sets a high standard for the others to aim at. Has a lot more experience than her rivals, and should run her race. Her price of 7/1 looks fair enough to me, but she might well have to improve again as there looks to be a few potentially useful ones lurking in the shadows. A good each way chance from her draw in stall 4.
7, RIVE GAUCHE William Hagags/Graham Gibbons
Fastnet Rock filly, who started off with an eyecatching run on rain softened ground over 7f at the tail end of last season at Newmarket, staying on late in the day. Half brother to four time Italian listed winner Ryan (13-15f) and plenty of stamina in her pedigree. The step up to a mile should suit and Graham Gibbons has a 33% strike rate when riding for William Haggas in the last 5 years. However, probably best watched today at odds of 20/1, and one to look out for when stepped up further in trip later this season. Drawn in stall 2.
9. SPERRY John Gosden/James Doyle
Shamardal filly, who is currently priced up at 4/1 second favourite. Won a weak maiden as she liked on her 3rd run last year at Wolverhampton (7f), and reappeared with an impressive victory over a mile in a conditions race at Ascot. Has obviously improved over the winter, and is a half sister to the useful Dunelight and Interception. This is a marked step up in class though, and the form of her last win has yet to be tested. I think her price of 4/1 is way too skinny for what she has actually achieved, and it maybe a case of the bookies pricing up on reputation of connections rather than form. On her debut she was 12l behind Lady Of Dubai, whereas Ceaseless, today's rival, was a neck in front of her when they locked horns. This piece of form alone is enough to convince me that her odds are cramped, and whilst she may well prove me wrong I think others have stronger form claims. Drawn in stall 3.
11. VOLUNTEER Mick Channon/Charles Bishop
Outsider, by Footstepsinthesand, who won a handicap last time out off 74. Has heaps to find with her rivals today and 40/1 an accurate reflection of her chances. Plenty of black type in her pedigree though, and her dam was useful over a mile, but has too much to prove to be a betting proposition. Drawn in stall 1.
12. YASMEEN John Gosden/Paul Hanagan
Sea The Stars filly likely to go off favourite and currently priced up at 9/4. Created a big impression on her first start last month in a maiden that has produced a couple of easy winners since. Out of an unraced half sister to the outstanding Bahri, and half sister to a string of black type animals. Lacks nothing on the pedigree front, and every chance she is good enough for this sort of race. However, at the end of the day this is a big step up in class, and the owners had a similar type supplemented for the 1000 Guineas and that didn't work out too well. The current price looks a bit too skinny for my liking given that she is not yet proven at this level. Drawn in stall 7.
CONCLUSION
A very interesting heat, where one must weigh up whether to go on potential/reputations or to go on form in the book. The one that has both potential and form in the book is CEASELESS. She has form in the book with horses that have gone on to run well at group one level, she has a pedigree to rival any of her opponents today, and I am struggling to understand how the bookies can have her priced up at 20/1, and she looks worth supporting each way in a race that the favourite Yasmeen has it all to prove.
No comments:
Post a Comment