Infinity Stakes Preview

Today I am going to do a quick preview of the runners and riders in the Infinity Tyres Stakes Grade 2 handicap at York. It is a big field, and angles can be found for many of the runners. Northern trainers have an excellent record in this race, and Mick Easterby has won it twice since 2010. No winner has been priced bigger than 14/1 since 2005 and the last three winners have been drawn in stalls 20, 18 and 15 so while a low draw is seen to be advantageous, it is not the be all and end all. As I have said before on this blog, usually if a horse is good enough it will win regardless of the draw-(unless it's Chester of course where the best horse rarely wins! I'm not bitter I swear...)

2.40 YORK GRADE 2 HANDICAP 

1. OUT DO         David O Meara
     Non-Runner today.

2. BLAINE         Kevin Ryan/Amy Ryan

A family affair here, with Amy Ryan riding for her Dad Kevin on a horse that really has an exceptional record at this track. He has three wins from four attempts, with his only defeat coming in this race last year on ground that was way too soft (all wins on good or better). He produced a career best later in the season, again at York, when getting up in the final strides in another high class handicap back on decent ground. Today he races off a mark of 103, only 3lbs above what he won off here last year. The ground is drying out all the time, Amy Ryan gets on well with him, and if he can deal with his wide draw out in stall 18 he must have a great chance. His first two runs this year haven't been the best, but the return of Amy Ryan and going back to York are two huge causes for optimism. Capable of a bold show off top weight. 20/1.

3.  PIPERS NOTE  Richard Whitaker/George Chaloner

Superb so far this year, with a 100% record from two starts. His last run was a career best, and he had a few of today's rivals behind him too. He has been raised 4lbs for that win, and races off a mark of 103 this afternoon. All his six wins have come at either Beverley or Ripon, and this will be his first start at York.  Good ground or better will be fine for him, and he has a decent draw in stall 3. There is no doubting the fact that he will need to improve again though, and it would be no surprise to see Algar Lad reversing the form from last time out, as he looked slightly unlucky beaten less than 2 lengths, and is 4lb better off  now. Enough doubt there for me to leave him alone today. Best price of 20/1 at the moment and drawn in stall 3.

4 POLYBIUS  David Lanigan/Ted Durcan

One of only three four year olds in todays race, which is a positive in itself given that they have won  6 of the last 10 runnings, Won his maiden and a handicap off 83 at Windsor last year, on fast ground, before signing off with a superb effort behind Intransigent in a listed contest at Lingfield on his final start, earning today's mark of 102. His dam showed her best form as a 4yo, winning a group 2, so on pedigree he should have improved over the winter. However, he has yet to race in a field with more than 10 runners, so he might lack a bit of experience of the rough and tumble that goes on in these sort of handicaps in comparison to some of his rivals. It is also a tough ask on his first run of the season. Could turn out to be a group horse in disguise, but at the skinny enough odds of 10/1 I think he is best watched today. Drawn in stall 17.

5. ANOTHER WISE KID  Paul Midgely/Graham Lee

7yo, who has eight wins to his name, but seven of those have come over 5f, which is a worry for today. Ran a lovely race on his only second visit to the track last October, beaten 3l off a mark off 99 into 3rd. That was over 6f, as was his stellar effort behind Pipers Note in 2nd last time at Ripon. However, has crept up the handicap without winning, and faces a tough task today off his new mark of 101. Should run his race, and has the considerable assistance of Graham Lee in the saddle so might sneak a place, but I find it hard to see him getting his head in front. Current price of 20/1 looks fair enough. Small e/w chance from a good draw in stall 5.

6. HOOF IT Mick Easterby/Kieren Fallon

8yo now, from a yard that has an excellent record in this race, and this horse won it  in 2011 as a 4yo. Has not shown his true colours for quite some time, and hasn't won since Goodwood in 2011 (Fallon rode that day too). His mark has dropped accordingly though, and he is now 10lb below his last win, and 4lb lower than when winning this in 2011 off 105. Has run well fresh in the past, has the assistance of Fallon in the saddle and at the current odds of 20/1 he looks to be a lively outsider if Easterby has him fully wound up for today. Drawn out in stall 16.

7. BADDILINI

Non Runner.

8. BALMONT MAST Eddie Lynam/Adam Kirby

Irish raider who has been highly tried in recent times, running mainly in group company over the past year or so. Dual listed winner, at Dundalk and The Curragh, the latter on good ground. Was a poor enough 8th on his previous run, but that can be excused due to soft ground, and is probably best judged on his comeback run at Dundalk, where he was a good 2nd to Russian Soul. The return to good ground will suit, but has to get back to something like the form he showed when winning at The Curragh to have an impact here off a mark of 101. Drawn out in stall 19 he is probably best watched today, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see him run well. Lynam's UK runners always need to be respected, as his 34% strike rate with his raiders shows. 22/1 at  the moment and could outrun those odds.

9. KICKBOXER Saeed Bin Suroor/James Doyle

Trained by Mick Channon last year and picked up by the boys in blue over the winter. The second 4yo in the race, his best form has been on good or softer. Won a class 2 handicap at Haydock off 93 last summer, before running with credit upped in class to listed comapny with a decent 2nd behind Justice Day. Ran well enough on his sole visit to York at this meeting last year, finishing 3rd over 5f staying on well. The 6f should be fine today and  has a good draw in stall 2. However, was well beaten off a mark of 101 on his final handicap start last season on ground that would have been ideal and is only 1lb lower today. The drying ground will probably be against him too, and for those reasons I think the 12/1 available looks a bit skinny to me, and he is best watched.

10. BARRACUDA BOY Tom Dascombe/Richard Kingscote

Five time winner, including three on turf, on ground ranging from good to soft to good to firm. Steps back into Class 2 company today after picking up a couple of class 3 events at the tail end of last year. Races off a career high mark of 99. Managed a 3rd place off 89 in class 2 company at Yarmouth last year, but ran a terrible race on his next start in that grade off today's mark on the all weather at Lingfield in December. Has run well on his seasonal return before so the lack of a run shouldn't be a factor. His mark does look too high though, and will be doing exceptionally well to reach the frame today from his draw in stall 12. His current price of 40/1 an accurate reflection of his chance.

11. ARCTIC FEELING Richard Fahey/Sam Bell

A winner over 6f at Newcastle last time out in a class 3 handicap off 93, a career best display. Won two here last year, but those heats were nowhere near as strong as today's race. Been raised 5lbs for that win, and will need to improve again if he is to get his nose in front today off 98. Should run his race, but hard to see him winning  upped in class, Decent draw in stall 6 and best priced at 25/1. Small each way chance.

12. MASS RALLY Micheal Dods/Paul Mulrennan

Admirable 8yo who loves it here and whose last two wins have been over c&d. Good or softer is fine, and won this race back in 2013. Ran in the group 2 Clipper Stakes at this meeting last year and finished a good 4th behind Maarek, Ran a lovely race on his comeback at Pontefract behind Out Do off 98, giving the impression that he would come on for the run. Been dropped a pound for that effort, and todays mark of 97 is 2lbs below what he won this race off in 2013. The drying ground would be a bit of a concern, but once there is no firm in the description he should be fine. Drawn in stall 9, which should be no problem, loves York and been given a right chance by the handicapper. Everything points toward a good run today, and should be there or thereabouts at the business end. Currently heads the market at a best priced 8/1.

13. TATLISU Richard Fahey/Ryan Moore

Looks to be the so called 'first string' of the Fahey quartet, with Ryan Moore booked, and is priced up at 10/1. Beaten less than a length by Pipers Note on his last start he has been raised a pound for that effort to a career high mark of 97. The worry for me would be that he had no real excuses last time out, and his jockey Jack Garrity was claiming 5lbs too, so he is effectively 6lb higher today. For this reason I think the 10/1 is way too short, and is a price based on the trainer jockey combination rather than his actual form chance. Has a great draw in stall 1, but for the reasons outlined above I think I will be giving him a wide berth today.

14. FAST SHOT Tim Easterby/Rachel Richardson

Been a super servant for the Ontoawinner syndicate, a great bunch of lads who love their racing and struck gold last year with their group winner Toocoolforschool. This horse has been mostly very consistent over the past few seasons, and showed he retained all his old ability with a superb run on his reappearance off a mark of 94 at Newcastle behind todays rival Arctic Feeling. Fast Shot would have needed the run that day, and followed up with another solid effort at Ripon on ground that would have been plenty quick enough. Has run in this race twice before,2nd in 2012 and an excellent 4th last year off a mark 2lb higher than today's. Good ground is fine, his trainer is hitting form at the right time (a double on Monday) and it would be no surprise to see this horse running a huge race from stall 7. Gets on famously with Rachel Richardson too, so no worries on that front either. 28/1 way too big a price and has a serious chance of making the frame.

15. ALGAR LAD David O Meara/Sam James

Campaigned mainly at 5f during his career, and has 5 wins to his name at the trip, all on good ground or better. However, stepped up to 6f on his last run and proved he could get the trip with a slightly unlucky 4th behind three of today's rivals at Ripon. Crucially though his mark has been left alone and he meets those rivals on better terms today, so it would seem he has every chance of reversing the form. For this reason I think he is overpriced, especially in relation to Tatlisu who was just ahead of him on his last run but who has to carry a lot more weight today. Drawn in the middle in stall 11 and  his current price of 14/1 looks more than fair to me for a trainer on the up. Solid each way chance.

16. BOGART Kevin Ryan/Jamie Spencer

Very speedy type, who likes to bounce out and make all. Struggled in this race last year, but has dropped a fair way in the handicap since then, and showed he was in good heart on his reappearance at Beverley over 5f last month, beaten less than 2l off the same mark as today's.Will be suited by the step back up to 6f and is now 3lb below his last winning mark. Has won at the course before too, so has plenty in his favour, and his draw in stall 8 shouldn't be too much of a hindrance. His price would suggest that he is the 'first string' from the Kevin Ryan yard, as would the booking of Spencer. However, hasn't won since August 2013 and is prone to running the odd stinker for no apparent reason.As a result his price of 10/1 looks a bit short for me, and I would rather be with the '2nd string' Blaine at the current prices.

17. JAMAICAN BOLT

Non runner.

18. BOY IN THE BAR Richard Fahey/Robert Winston

The third of the Fahey runners and Robert Winston keeps the ride again, having won on him at Pontefract last year when trained by David Barron. Moved to the Fahey yard for this season, and ran well on his seasonal bow beaten less than a length in a class 3 handicap off 92 at Ascot. Has won on ground varying from good to soft, so today's conditions shouldn't be a problem once it doesn't get too firm.Still only a 4yo, so has time on his side and could easily improve again. Needs to though, and his current best price of 10/1 looks short enough for a horse that has to prove he belongs at this level and can handle big fields too. He could easily do it, but my money won't be down. Drawn in stall 14.


19. KIMBERELLA Dandy Nicholls/Adrian Nicholls

Three time 6f winner, including two last year and goes on any ground. Behind a good few of these on his seasonal reappearance, and has been dropped a pound to a mark of 92. That is still 3lb above his last winning mark though, and he will need a career best to come out on top today. However, Dandy loves his big field handicaps, and is not averse to winning them with horses at silly prices. His close second off 94 at Ripon last year would give him a chance, and could be a dark horse in a wide open race. Drawn out widest of all in stall 20.

20. MEHDI  Richard Fahey/Paul Hanagan

In years gone by this horse would be perceived as the Fahey '1st string' due to the fact that Hanagan rides. However, times have changed, and since Hanagan took the Maktoum job it is harder to read the significance of the jockey bookings from the yard. Once rated 102 and placed at group level back in 2012, there is no doubt that this horse has plenty of ability. However he hasn't won since 2011, and couldn't win a handicap last year off a mark of 87.  He runs off 89 today.For a horse that hasn't won a race in almost 4 years his price of 12/1 looks very skinny to me, and I will be keeping a watching brief for now.  Has a good draw in stall 4.


CONCLUSION
As can be seen from the above this is a tricky puzzle to solve. Blaine makes the shortlist due to his course record, and Algar Lad looks to be well treated in relation to his re-opposing rivals. However the one I like best at a big price is FAST SHOT, and I think he can run a big race today for each way backers at 28/1. Kimberella is a bit of a dark horse and could also run into a place. Arctic Feeling looks to be the pick of the Fahey quartet at the prices.Hoof it should not be discounted either for a yard with a super record in this race.