Thursday 9 July 2015

Belated Step Back Up In Trip To Suit Beckett's Charge

Staccato Wolf was disappointing yesterday and could only manage 6th after being well positioned entering the home straight. He had no excuses and looked to be a fairly tricky ride too. He may well be one to look out for after he has been gelded.
The July meeting starts today at Newmarket, and the feature race today is the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes. Eight horses go to post and the current favourite is the unbeaten John Gosden trained colt Mahsoob, who steps into Group company for the first time after taking the Wolferton last time out. However, worryingly for favourite backers, only one jolly has obliged since 2005.
Michael Stoute has won five out of the last ten runnings of this race, with Ryan Moore on board for four of those victories, and he is doubly represented today, with Moore on board Gospel Choir and Ted Durcan taking the reins on Hillstar. Neither horse can be written off with much confidence and both are previous winners at this level. Second Step, a winner over course and distance in the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) last time out, carries a 3lb penalty as a result and needs to prove that wasn't a fluke as his opponents on the day ran well below their best.
The horse I like at a price is Ralph Beckett's Niceofyoutotellme, who will be ridden by James Doyle. This 6yo gelding, a half brother to Jack Hobbs, has stepped into Group comapany this season after proving himself a serious handicapper, and his first run of the season at this track (Group 3) was an effort filled with promise. It came over 9F, and he was slowly away and stayed on nicely at the finish to finish 4th, beaten less than 2L by the useful French Navy.
 He stepped up to 10F on his next outing, again at Group 3 level, and ran an absolute cracker in 3rd just behind Arab Spring and Western Hymn, outpaced early in the home straight before gaining on both again on the run to the line. Both of these efforts have suggested a step up in trip might suit, and indeed he won over 11F as a 4yo. He did have one go over this trip back in 2012, but it came on easy ground so his poor run can be excused on that front.
His last effort, in the Listed Wolferton Handicap at Sandown, saw him face today's favourite Mahsoob, who won nicely, but Niceofyoutotellme was only a couple of lengths behind and was carrying 2lb more than the Gosden horse, so he is 2lb better off with him today. Although the Beckett horse finished in eighth place he wasn't beaten all that far, and he stayed on well late in the day in a manner that again suggested a crack at this sort of trip was in order. I would imagine the sight of Jack Hobbs hacking up in the Irish Derby might have convinced them to have a go at 12F again too!
James Doyle's booking is another positive, as he has form figures of 2124 when riding this horse, and an overall strike rate of 7/39 when riding for Beckett. The return to Newmarket is also sure to suit, this son of Hernando, who has form figures of 10124 when running at the track. At his current odds of 16/1 he looks worthy of a little each way wager, and hopefully he will be staying on late in the day when others have cried, enough!

Selection: 3.15 Newmarket- Niceofyoutotellme (each way) 16/1.

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