Monday 27 July 2015

Galway Day 1 Preview

It is that time of the year again, when the droves descend on Ballybrit for a week of absolute debauchery. The racing is a mere sideshow for many of the soldiers that march West, but for the horse racing enthusiast there is plenty of quality fare on the menu too, with the serious prize money on offer ensuring that all the big yards are represented throughout the week.
Dermot Weld is usually a shoo in to be the leading trainer at the Festival, and he has an outstanding record over the past two decades. Tony Martin is another trainer to note as he usually fires in a few winners during the week. Local trainer Stephen Mahon also likes to have a winner at the festival, and it is always worth keeping an eye on his runners, in the handicaps in particular.

5.15 Novice Hurdle 4yo Only (2 Miles)

The opener is a race that Mr.Weld has an outstanding record in, and he has taken three of the last five runnings. Zafayan is his representative this year. Willie Mullins saddled last years winner McKinley, and the betting would suggest that his Bachasson is the main threat to the Weld horse.
The Mullins charge is a French import who was successful in two of his three runs in his home country, both wins coming in three runner fields on easy ground over 12F. He was sent off a 4/11 favourite on his hurdling bow at Sligo earlier this month and duly landed the odds in a facile manner. He is the current market leader with a couple of bookmakers, and the best price available at the moment is 13/8. His maiden win came in a weak race, and at that sort of price he is one I will be avoiding.
Zafayan on the other hand can be backed at 15/8 at the moment, and given that his flat form is far stronger than anything the Mullins horse has achieved, and also that he hails from a yard with an unbelievable record at the meeting, that looks to be a more than fair price. His 3rd in the Chester Cup off a mark of 96 was a serious effort, and having been freshened up since, presumably with this race in mind, he is a confident selection to get punters off to a flying start.
Of the remainder the one that interests me at a price is the Aidan O'Brien trained and JP McManus owned All The Answers, who will be ridden by Barry Geraghty, the man charged with the unenviable task of replacing AP McCoy. This horse has a serious National Hunt pedigree, being a son of Kayf Tara and out of a useful Mtoto mare who is a half sister to the classy Radjahni Express. O'Brien's horses usually improve for their first outing, but he can ready one too, and this horse is one to watch very closely in the market.

Selections: Zafayan (win) 15/8, All The Answers (e/w) 14/1.

5.45 Handicap Hurdle 4yo+ (2 Miles)

A typically competitive Galway Festival handicap with any amount of potential winners. There are a few in the field that look like they have been laid out for this race, and the one I really fancy to run well at a big price is Donal Kinsella's King Of Oriel.
This gelded son of Kheleyf has been on  my radar since the festival last year, when he ran in this very race. I backed him that day at 20/1, when he was ridden by Davy Russell, and he was in the process of running a huge race before a silly mistake saw him fall at the last fence. He was dropped out in rear before making smooth headway on the bridle, travelling best in fourth place approaching the last, yet to be asked for a serious effort. He got it all wrong though, and Russell had no chance of keeping the partnership intact.
He hasn't been seen over hurdles subsequently and has instead been running on the flat off a basement mark. After a string of inconsistent efforts everything finally fell into place last time out at Fairyhouse (10F) when he got up in the final stride to beat Flowing Air. He hasn't been seen since, presumably put away for a couple of months with a crack at this race in mind.
Last years effort came off a mark of 104, and this year he gets in off 101. Davy Russell is required to ride one of Weld's in the race, but the booking of Mark Enright is an upgrade in any case in my humble opinion. Kinsella's horses have been running well of late too, another positive for King Of Oriel's chances. The current ground description of yielding should be fine for him, although any further rain would be a worry as he wouldn't want it to be bottomless. All things considered he looks to be a good each way bet at 16/1, but I will be waiting to see what the weather does before my money goes down. If it stays dry and the ground doesn't deteriorate King Of Oriel should be in the shake up.
Another one of interest is the Mahon horse Rocky Court, who will be partnered by Barry Geraghty, a jockey booking that really catches the eye. As I mentioned earlier Mahon is based in Galway, and his entries during the festival demand close inspection. This horse has run well at the track before, has some pretty decent form in maidens, and makes his handicap debut off what could turn out to be a lenient mark of 105.
He has yet to face soft ground under rules, and his point to point effort on that type of ground wasn't exactly full of promise. Yielding ground should be fine, and similarly to King Of Oriel he would ideally like the rain to stay away. He is another to be interested in each way at his current odds of 14/1, and I would imagine his owner Joe Rabbitte, a Galway hurling legend, would get quite a reception if he was to win, especially as The Tribesmen will be in high spirits after their impressive win on Sunday against Cork.

Selections:  King Of Oriel (e/w)  16/1, Rocky Court (e/w) 14/1.


6.15  Flat Maiden 2yo  (7F)

A race that has been shared between Weld and O'Brien in recent years, with Weld leading 6-3 over the last nine seasons. Weld again has the most likely winner this year in market leader True Solitaire (5/4), who is a son of Oasis Dream and a half brother to the classy Carla Bianca.
Perhaps the biggest danger will come from the O'Brien '2nd string' Johannes Vermeer, who is not as well bred as his stablemate Unicorn, but who has the benefit of a previous run under his belt. Given that O'Brien's usually come on massively for their first outing he is the most likely to chase the Weld horse home.
Spader is also worth a mention, and indeed I tipped him up on his last run. It was a disappointing enough effort, but he still looked a bit green under pressure, and Keane didn't exactly throw the kitchen sink at him in the home straight. With the ground currently described as soft it should suit Spader, and he could be one to outrun his current odds of 25/1 if he has improved for his last run.

Selection: True Solitaire (5/4).    Danger: Johannes Vermeer (6/1).     Long Shot: Spader (25/1)


6.50  Flat Handicap  4yo+ (2 miles)

Tony Martin has won this race for the last two years, and he sends a three pronged attack in an attempt to complete the hat trick. Ted Veale is the shortest price of the trio, but Spacious Sky looks an intriguing contender too.
Weld has booked the services of up and coming young jockey Finny Maguire for his sole entrant Sierra Sun, who takes a huge step up in trip. This filly has basically been disappointing this year over middle distance trips after showing definite promise as a 3yo. The new distance has to eke out improvement, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see a better run given her connections.
Spacious Sky appeals most of the Martin entries at the prices, and he has gone close  on a couple of occasions in the past year over this sort of trip. He ran an absolute cracker behind Weld star Silver Concorde on his last run, and he is 2lb lower than when going close in a 15F handicap at Leopardstown in November. He ran well here last year too, goes on any ground, and at his current odds of 16/1 he looks well worth an each way interest.
The top weight Awesome Star is also of interest on his close second to Pyromaniac at the Curragh off 86 back in May. He is 3lbs higher today, and has hit the frame on each of his last six runs. The John Oxx yard is going through something of a revival in recent weeks, after spending quite a long time in the doldrums, and Awesome Star should put in another solid run today. The return to an easier surface could help, he has proven he gets the trip and he has the assistance of the excellent Jamie Codd in the saddle. 12/1 looks too big for such a consistent horse, and he looks sure to run his usual consistent race and be thereabouts at the business end.

Selections: Spacious Sky (nb) 16/1 (e/w). Awesome Star (e/w) 12/1.

7.20 Flat Handicap 3yo Only  (7F)

Unusually this race hasn't been a happy hunting ground for Mr.Weld, and it has been Northern raider Andy Oliver who has taken the honours on the past two occasions. This year it looks an horrendously difficult puzzle to solve with a host of unexposed, well bred types taking their chances.
Oliver has two entries, and one of those is 2nd reserve. Both are worth keeping an eye on, as there can be little doubt that he has targeted this race in an effort to make it three in a row. Pretty Love, a daughter of Duke Of Marmalade, has shown nothing in three runs since a pleasing debut run at Dundalk when she finished 2nd. She has a very similar profile to last years winner Expensive Taste, who won on her handicap debut off a mark of 70.
 If she is pulled out and the Oliver reserve, Pretty Famous, gets in, watch the market closely. She ran her best race over 6F on easy ground in a good maiden at Leopardstown last year, and could well be Oliver's plan b for soft ground if he doesn't think it will suit Pretty Love, who has a good draw too by the way in stall 3.
Of the other contenders Laharde could also run well for the in form Marnane yard. The combination of soft ground, dropping to 7F, a tumbling mark and a first time hood could well see an improved effort from this gelded son of Dutch Art, a sire with a good record from his offspring on easy ground. Connor King takes off a handy 3lb, he has bagged a decent draw in stall 4, and at his current odds of 14/1 he is another with possible each way claims. Stakes are best kept to a minimum in this minefield of a race.

Selections: Pretty Love (e/w)/Pretty Famous(e/w) both 25/1.  Laharde (e/w) 14/1.


7.50 Flat Handicap 3yo Only (12F).

Weld has taken this just twice in the past seven years, including last years victor Timiyan. This year he relies upon Harasava, an unexposed daughter of Azamour out of a Daylami mare that was a listed winner over today's trip of 12F, and on soft ground too. Harasava has had three runs so far, starting out over 7F at this track last year, well beaten, before going close stepped up to 12.5F on soft ground on her next run at Tipperary.
She got her head in front last time out, dropped to 10.5F on good ground at Sligo, and whilst she didn't beat much she showed a willing attitude under pressure, shaping as if the step back up to 12F would be no problem. She has been awarded a mark of 75, and this could turn out to be very generous. She is extremely well bred, with black type galore in her dam line, and it will be disappointing if she can't win this off her current mark, before going on to bigger and better things in the future.

Selection: Harasava NAP (win) 2/1.

8.20 Bumper  4-7yo (2 miles)

With no entries from Weld or Willie Mullins this race will give some of the smaller operations a chance to get themselves into the winners enclosure. Another Cyclone, a full brother to stable star Hidden Cyclone, is the current 2/1 favourite for The Shark, and there was plenty of talk about this fella before his debut run at Fairyhouse in May, when he could only manage fourth. It wasn't a bad effort though, and he is sure to improve for the run. It will be interesting to see what price he goes off at, as it would be no surprise to see The Shark having a wedge on if he fancies him.
The booking of Finny Maguire for the Pat Fahy trained Lord Wickham really catches the eye, and this son of Kris Kin is out of a half sister to the useful Publican, who won his bumper at this track on heavy ground.
Last years winning yard is represented by Matchaway, who ran a lovely race in finishing second on his only run so far on good ground at Punchestown. Jamie Codd takes the reins again, and he is a half brother to  four time winner Ballyallia Man who has a distinct preference for easy ground, which suggests that Matchaway should be fine on today's surface, At his current odds of 4/1 he looks to be the main threat to the favourite, and it would be no surprise to see him coming home in front.

Selections: Matchaway (win) 4/1 Lord Wickham (e/w) 16/1.








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