Rogue Too Big At Ascot

Saturday's selection goes in the 3.55 at Ascot, a Class 4 handicap with 14 runners. As one would expect it is a very open heat, and the current favourite is the unexposed  Great Fun for Brian Meehan at 5/1, who returns to the turf for the first time since his debut win. His chance is obvious, but the one I like at much juicier odds is the Timothy Jarvis trained Rogue Wave, a horse that has only tasted success once in 14 starts.
On the face of it he looks to be fairly exposed, but there is reason to believe he can put in an improved performance today. He won his maiden last year over this trip as a 3yo  at Thirsk on good ground after a fruitless 2yo campaign, and he earned himself a handicap mark of 80. He has failed to win a handicap so far, but a couple of his runs suggest that he is more than capable off today's mark of 78.
He twice went close off this mark last year, at Kempton (7F) and Newcastle (8F) going down by narrow margins on both occasions, but his from tailed off on his last couple of runs and he was put away for the Winter. He made a low key reappearance at Kempton (8F) in April, not beaten all that far, and today's jockey Jordan Vaughan rode him on his second and last run at Haydock (8F) which was a much improved effort.
He drops back down to 7F today, which on all the evidence available should suit, and Vaughan takes off a handy 5lbs, meaning he basically races off 73. Those two runs over a mile should have put him cherry ripe for today, and the Jarvis stable has really hit form in the last couple of weeks. He can currently be backed at odds of 16/1 and this looks to be way too big. He looks well worth supporting each way in a typically open handicap.

Selection: 3.55 Ascot-Rogue Wave (16/1) each way.

I have also done an in depth preview of the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket today and it can be found here http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/