RACE 1 HANDICAP HURDLE DAY 3
This is a devilishly difficult puzzle to decipher and almost all of the 22 runners have some sort of chance. I would love to be able to find another huge priced winner here but to be honest I can't see beyond the Tony Martin trained Mydor. This 6yo son of Stormy River was a big improver at the start of last year and after wins at Fairyhouse (22f soft) Leopardstown (24f heavy) and three subsequent placed efforts his mark rocketed from 104 to 132.
He has been below par so far this season but his last run, in a handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse (22f yielding/soft) was a much more encouraging effort. He travelled very well but Denis O'Regan gave him far too much to do and he stayed on strongly for 3rd, beaten under 4L. He is 4lb higher tomorrow off a mark of 133 but the step back up in trip looks sure to bring about an even better showing than last time. I can't see the current 9/1 lasting and he is more than capable of winning off an absolute feather weight.
STEVOS' SELECTION: MYDOR 9/1
RACE 2 NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1
Yorkhill did the business for us when he hacked up at Cheltenham but as we have seen so many times this week he is no certainty to repeat the form. However, if he is even at 90% he should have too much toe for these and he is 2/7 favourite for a reason.
The one I will be having a small wager each way on at massive odds is the Sandy Thomson trained The Dutchman. His form is nowhere near as strong as some of the others in this field, but he has had just 3 runs under rules and he is open to plenty of improvement. He won his maiden on his penultimate run at Wetherby and he showed a good attitude to get the job done at 11/4.
He was stepped straight into Grade 2 company next time at Kelso (18f soft) and he ran an absolute cracker, doing most of the donkey work in front and keeping on very well for 2nd. he is bred to be a good animal and his sisters The Pirate's Queen and Katie Too have also earned black type over timber. Slightly better ground and a step up in trip should show the Dutchman in an even better light and he could be the one to chase Yorkhill home at odds of 50/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: THE DUTCHMAN E/W 50/1
RACE 3 NOVICES' CHASE GRADE 1
Douvan is the 1/6 favourite here and if he repeats his Cheltenham form he wins. If the ground dries out The Game Changer could be the one for the forecast but to be honest I won't be having a bet in this race and it is one to sit back and enjoy.
RACE 4 STAYERS HURDLE GRADE 1
Once again we have another hot pot in Thistlecrack and he is a best price of just 2/7 to follow up on his spectacular Cheltenham win. He stays, is proven at the track and goes on any ground. I would love to see him try chasing next season as with his engine he would surely make up into a Gold Cup horse.
Shaneshill ran a very good race in the RSA at the festival and he reverts back to hurdles to take on Thistlecrack. He found only Douvan too good in the Supreme Novices' a couple of years ago so he is a more than useful sort over timber. He will stay every yard and if for some reason Thistlecrack is not at his best this fella could be the one to pick up the pieces at odds of 14/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: SHANESHILL E/W 14/1
RACE 5 LISTED HANDICAP CHASE
This is a very competitive handicap chase and the one I like is Warden Hill for Mick Channon. This 8yo son of Presenting is totally unexposed over fences and some of his form would suggest that he could be very well treated on just his second start in a handicap over the bigger obstacles. He hasn't been sighted since hosing up in a 4 runner novice chase at Market Rasen (24f good) and though he hasn't run for a year he has won twice after breaks of over 100 days.
He chased home Coneygree on his penultimate run at Kempton (24f good to soft) and while he was beaten 40L he won the race for second with Virak, beating that rival by just under 2L off level weights. That rival has since gone on to be placed off 159 in a Grade 2 handicap at Haydock so Warden Hill's mark of 137 looks an absolute gift on that piece of form. He beat Sir Mangan by 11L last time and that horse went close off 132 in a listed handicap at Cheltenham off 132. Warden Hill's fitness has to be taken on trust, but his mark is too tempting to ignore and he is worthy of an each way bet at 16/1.
STEVOS' SELECTION: WARDEN HILL E/W 16/1
RACE 6 GRAND NATIONAL
From a punting perspective this is not a race to be going overboard in. Many Clouds looks sure to run his race again and it would be a fairytale to see Oliver Sherwood's horse do the job again. However, you would want to be getting your head examined backing a single figure priced horse in a race like this and I like one right down the bottom for the in form combo of Rebecca Curtis and Trevor Whelan.
The Romford Pele fell on his last chase start, and that is hardly encouraging coming into a race like this. However, he has had a couple of confidence boosting runs over timber since that mishap and he ran an absolute cracker in his prep run for this behind Diamond King in the Coral Cup at the festival. He flew home up the hill over an inadequate 21f and he was beaten less than 5L at the finish.
The run that put this horse on my Grand National radar came at Cheltenham back in November in a grade 3 handicap chase off a mark of 148. He stayed on really well in the closing stages over a trip of 27.5f and he looked in need of even further. His stamina will not be in question, but his jumping is the big worry especially over fences as big as these. However, I think Trevor Whelan's aggressive style will suit and if he can get a good early pitch and get the horse into a rhythm he is capable of running a big race at even bigger odds.
STEVOS' SELECTION: THE ROMFORD PELE E/W 40/1
RACE 7 HANDICAP HURDLE
An absolute minefield to finish off the festival and the one I like is Sir Ector for little known County Tyrone handler Nicole McKenna. This 9yo son of Dynaformer has been a credit to his connections and he has run some huge races in valuable flat and hurdle handicaps during his career. This time last year he went ever so close in a strong handicap at the Punchestown festival (20f good) when he very nearly reeled in the winner late on. That effort came off a mark of 121, and he is 7lb higher here, but a fast gallop over 2m should suit him well and Tom Garner takes off a handy 3lb.
He presumably has been targeted at this race and he had a lovely prep run on the level at Cork a couple of weeks ago (5th of 14 10f heavy) off a mark off 99 and that should put him cherry ripe for this test. This is a wide open race so stakes should be kept to a minimum, but at odds of 33/1 he looks worthy of a small each way bet.
STEVOS' SELECTION: SIR ECTOR E/W 33/1
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