Haze Looks Overpriced At Ludlow

Tuesday's cards look hard work from a punting point of view and all the recent rain makes things even trickier. I was really looking forward to seeing Adrian Murray's 7yo Killaro Boy making his handicap debut  in the 3.50 at Fairyhouse, and I think he could prove a lot better than his initial mark of 107. However, it has been lashing it down the last 24 hours in this part of the world and I would have been a lot more confident of his chances on better ground.

He hacked up first time out in a point to point on good to yielding and the form of that race has worked out pretty well. I was at Fairyhouse the day he made his rules debut and he looked a really nice type in the parade ring. However, he got badly bogged down in the heavy ground and he was beaten a distance in 9th. He was 4th next time behind Our Duke at Leopardstown but he was beaten 25L and it was the same story on similar ground last time at Thurles. He is 25/1 with Betfair for today's race and if the ground was better he would be worth backing each way. However, I think I will hold my fire until he gets his ground and I reckon there is another horse at Ludlow that could be worth a second look.

Sahara Haze goes in the 3.25, a 2m 5f mares novice hurdle, and the ground is currently described as good to soft. Phillip Dando's 7yo daughter of Rainbow High has had just the 6 starts under rules, and she has shown more than a glimmer of promise on a couple of those runs. Her three runs in bumpers were nothing to write home about, but she has looked more at home over timber and her penultimate run at Ffos Las (20f good to soft) at 100/1 was a real eye catcher.

She was held up out the back and bar one sticky jump she was very fluent over her hurdles. She was badly outpaced by the front three as they left the back straight and turning for home she looked in big trouble. However, although the front two had flown she seemed to find a second wind as she approached the 2nd last and with her jockey pushing away, not too vigorously mind you, she flew over it and drew alongside the 3rd and 4th in the field coming to the last. She absolutely pinged it and stayed on really strongly for 3rd under hands and heels, closing on the 2nd all the way to the line.

Now it is hard to get too carried away by that form, but she was going to beat the 5/4 fav even if he didn't fall at the last, and with another furlong or two she might have got 2nd. She was dropped down to 17f for her next run at Newton Abbott, and I had absolutely no interest in backing her over that trip, even though she was well backed and was sent off at just 4/1. It was no surprise that she was beaten out of sight as the drop in trip was never going to suit, and it is because of that effort that she is such a big price today.

Her half brother Midnight Haze won over jumps from trips ranging from 20.5f to 25.5f so her pedigree suggests that today's trip of 21f should be ideal, and her run at Ffos Las would indicate the exact same thing. If she was coming here straight after her Ffos Las effort there is no way she would be a 16/1 shot, but her run last time means that she is an inflated price. I am putting a line through that Newton Abbot run because of the trip, and back up to 21f I think she is well worth an each way bet at 16/1 in what looks an open enough race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 3.25 LUDLOW: SAHARA HAZE (E/W) 16/1