Punchestown Day 4

After a good first couple of days for the blog it was a lot tougher on Day 3. Pakman got us off to a flier by running a cracker in 3rd (adv 25/1) and I thought we were in for another successful day. Mr Fiftyone ran a very nice race but he could only manage 4th and he is sure to come on massively for the run. Dedigout was a non runner so at least he doesn't count as a loser!

The remaining two selections ran stinkers, and Ttebob in particular was desperately disappointing. He could never land a blow despite the money arriving, and it is back to the drawing board for him. Douvan was hugely impressive it has to be said and he is some horse to do what he has done in the last month and a bit. Day 4 looks a tricky enough card but I do fancy a few and you can check out what I think below.

Race 1

 A hunter chase to get matters underway and I have absolutely no interest in having a bet here.

Race 2

The first 'proper' race of Day 4 is a valuable Novice handicap chase to be run over 21f. With more rain forecast surely the ground will soften, and one horse that looks sure to suit is Tom Gibneys handsome son of Hernando Balnagon Boy. This fella owes us nothing having landed a nice touch for the blog earlier in the season (read here) and I think he could be set to run another big race tomorrow.

He will appreciate an ease in the ground and I am convinced that his best trip is around 20f. He won his Novice chase over 16f at Fairyhouse and he was just as good on his next couple of runs upped to 20f. He was dropped back to 17f (yielding) for his chase handicap debut last time out and back from a couple of months off he ran a lovely race behind Solita in 4th.

That will have put him cherry ripe for this and he looks ready for the step up to 21f. It is important that he gets into a nice rhythm early as his jumping can be a bit sticky at times. He usually warms up as the race goes on though and on a line through Marlbrook he should be well capable of making an impact off his mark of 126. Moore takes off a handy 5lb and at odds of 12/1 I think he can hit the frame.

STEVOS' SELECTION: BALNAGON BOY E/W 12/1

Race 3

Paul Nolan has the likely favourite here and Solita is just a 9/2 shot having won her last two races. However, while she is sure to be popular with punters I am sweeter on his other entry, I'm All You Need, a 6yo daughter of Kings Theatre that looks sure to appreciate the step up to 21f.

She has been running well over inadequate trips and one of her best runs came behind Balnagon Boy at Fairyhouse (16f heavy) staying on well and never nearer. She has been highly tried since then and she managed a decent 2nd behind Gitane Du Berlais in a Listed Chase at Naas (16f soft). She ran well off a mark of 123 at Leopardstown back in December, staying on really well again for 2nd over 17f (heavy).

She was pulled up last time behind Solita at Fairyhouse (17f yielding) but she obviously wasn't right and you can put a line through that effort. She is now 2lb lower than for her good handicap run at Leopardstown and with the step up in trip sure to suit I think she can go close at odds of 18/1.

STEVOS' SELECTION: I'M ALL YOU NEED E/W 18/1

Race 4

The feature race of the day is the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle and it looks a three horse race. Identity Thief has failed to live up to his early season promise, though the more rain  that falls the more it will aid his chances. My Tent Or Yours has run two huge races since returning from injury but this could be too big an ask. Vroum Vroum Mag was a controversial late withdrawal at Sandown and she could be hard to beat in receipt of 7lbs from the boys. However, I am not going to have a bet on this race as I can't see much value in the markets.

Race 5

The 2nd Grade 1 of Day 4 is the Novice Champion Hurdle and it looks like it is Jer's Girl's to lose. This filly has put Gavin Cromwell on the map and as Elusive Ivy showed earlier his horses are in super form. The more rain that falls the better for this daughter of Jeremy and she will be hard to beat at 2/1, especially as she is getting over a stone in weight from her older rivals.

The each way value could lie with the Jessica Harrington trained Jett, a beautifully bred Flemensfirth gelding that is a half brother to Jezki among others. He was a let down last time out but the trip was likely too sharp for him that day and he is better judged on his impressive maiden hurdle win over today's trip of 20f at Leopardstown (soft). His yard is flying and he could be the one to chase home the favourite.

STEVOS' SELECTION: JETT E/W 14/1 

The rest of the card on Day 4 doesn't make much appeal to me and I haven't been able to find anything that looks massively overpriced. Hopefully the selections for tomorrow do better than today's, but after the first couple of days any more winners would be a huge bonus.