All Ireland Semi Final Previews

KERRY VS MAYO

Kerry made a mug out of me last weekend against Mayo and they are lucky to be getting another chance. They didn’t play to anywhere near their potential, whereas Mayo picked up where they left off against Roscommon. The deployment of Aidan O’Shea at full back was the biggest surprise of the match and while Kerry decided not to launch high balls into Donaghy he still managed to be very influential and he was directly involved in 2-4 of their total score of 2-14. It will be interesting to see if O’Shea is deployed in the same role on Saturday.

Andy Moran caused Kerry all sorts of problems last week.

Andy Moran was the star man for Mayo and he looked more like a 21 year old than a man approaching his mid 30s last Sunday. Kerry just couldn’t get out in front of him and he made hay, bagging a total of 1-5. Cillian O’Connor played an important part for Mayo too and he got a couple of crucial scores when they needed them most. It is almost unbelievable that Mayo found themselves a point down as the game entered injury time, but a last gasp point from Paddy Durcan got them out of jail.

They will do it all over again on Saturday and surely Eamonn Fitzmaurice will change Kerry’s set up defensively. Mayo seemed to be able to cut through them almost at will, and they could have been out of sight had they converted all of their chances. Mark Griffin was given the curly finger at half time but he wasn’t the only member of the Kerry full back line to underperform and any one of the three could have been hauled off.

Kerry simply can’t afford to go man to man again and if they do it could be easy pickings again for Andy Moran and co. The likes of McLoughlin and Boyle caused them all sorts of problems with their direct running from deep, and even though Kerry tried to block them off in midfield it proved an ineffective approach. I think Kerry could opt to use a sweeper on Saturday as their full back line is incapable of coping with Mayo’s full forwards in a man to man system.

There is no doubt that Kerry massively underperformed last Sunday, but that could be the kick up the arse they needed. It has to be a huge disappointment for Mayo that they couldn’t put the below par Kingdom to the sword, and we can see them rueing that missed chance. Kerry are unlikely to be as bad again on Saturday and Eamonn Fitzmaurice will take action to fix the problems that they had in the drawn game. This could be one match too far for Mayo and I think Kerry (-3 points) at odds of 11/8 is the bet.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KERRY -3 POINTS @ 11/8

DUBLIN VS TYRONE

There was a time when Dublin supporters would be dreading an All Ireland semi-final date with Tyrone, but those days are gone. Mickey Harte’s men gave the Boys In Blue some awful hammerings back in the day, but in recent times Dublin have had the upper hand. In 2005 and 2008, when Tyrone were at the peak of their powers, they quietened the Hill with 7 point and 12 point wins respectively, the first win coming in a replay after a 1-14 to 1-14 draw. However, Dublin won handily when they met in the Championship in 2010, and most recently in 2011, and a similar outcome could be on the cards on Sunday.

Jack McCaffrey and James McCarthy are key men for Dublin.

This version of Dublin is even better than the team that triumphed in 2011 and it is a squad with serious strength in depth. The likes of Cluxton, James McCarthy, Cian O’Sullivan, Bernard Brogan and Diarmuid Connolly played for the Dubs that day and they are still doing the business 6 years later. The emergence of new talent like Eric Lowndes, Paul Mannion, Dean Rock and Brian Fenton sees Dublin coming into this match as red hot favourites, and rightly so in my opinion.

Mickey Harte is still going strong as the manager of Tyrone and they too have a few survivors from that heavy defeat 6 years ago. Peter Harte, the Cavanagh brothers and Mattie Donnelly all played that day and they will be central figures for this team again on Sunday. Harte is bringing new blood through too with the likes of Cathal McCarron, Mark Bradley and Niall Sludden all making their marks for Tyrone in recent times. They don’t have the same strength on the bench as this Dublin team though, and that could prove to be the difference.

This will be a fascinating game from a tactical point of view, and this Tyrone team will likely opt to pack their defence. There is no secret to the modus operandi favoured by Mickey Harte at this stage of his career and Tyrone will first and foremost go out to try and stop the opposition from playing. Yes, they have clocked up big scores against the likes of Armagh, Donegal and Down this season but they were by far the superior team in those matches and it will be a different story against the free scoring Dubs.

This Dublin team is said to struggle against blanket defences but this is an area Jim Gavin has worked on and they have improved markedly when faced with a wall of tough tackling backs. They don’t get frustrated like they used to and they have the shooting ability to put the ball over the bar from distance. In any case, Tyrone will have to attack at some stage if they want to win this game and when they do Dublin have the pace, skill and accuracy to exploit any gaps left at the back and get the scores they need.

The return of Diarmuid Connolly will be a big boost to Dublin but he will have to be disciplined as you can be sure that Tyrone will target him if he starts. Dean Rock’s accuracy from placed balls could be another key factor as Tyrone may well be forced into making fouls in scorable positions. The pace of Jack McCaffrey and James McCarthy could also trouble Tyrone and with the likes of Brogan, McManamon and McCauley waiting in the wings this Dublin team has serious strength and experience to call upon if required.

Peter Harte is Tyrone’s most influential player by a long way and I love how he plays the game. He runs himself into the ground, is sound defensively and he has the vision and technique to pry open any defence with his accurate passing. Sean Cavanagh is the elder statesman on this team and his talent is well known. He is capable of putting the ball over the bar from any angle but Dublin’s backs are good enough to nullify both their threats.

The last few league meetings between these two teams have been very close contests and the last two clashes finished level. However, Jim Gavin trains this Dublin team to peak in late August and September and they will be a different proposition to the side that Tyrone drew with here in February. Jim Gavin’s men can’t afford to be complacent against a hungry Tyrone team, but The Dubs have a wealth of experience of dealing with the pressure of semi final day and we can see them pulling away late on with their subs making a big impact. Dublin -4 points in the handicap market is the recommendation.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DUBLIN (-4 POINTS) @ 6/4