Flare Can Burn Brightly At Leopardstown

The Festive Season is fast approaching and there is a mouth-watering menu of racing action for punters to feast on. There will be Grade 1s galore on both sides of the pond and I can’t wait for it all to begin. Earlier this week I backed one at a monster price ante-post for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, and I think Flaxen Flare looks a fascinating contender for Gordon Elliott.

 

Flaxen Flare has a good record in big fields and at Leopardstown. 

This 8yo son of Windsor Knot has been lightly campaigned since breaking his chasing maiden at Down Royal back in 2015 (20f gd/yld). He missed all of 2016 and wasn’t seen again until finishing 3rd on bottomless ground in a hurdle race at Cork (16f). He returned to chasing on his next start at Tramore (21f yld) and he looked by far the most likely winner when making a mistake at the 2nd last and unseating Jack Kennedy.

Flaxen Flare returned to the smaller obstacles for his next and final start of the season at Killarney (20f sft). Jack Kennedy was on board again and his run of bad luck aboard this fella continued as he dropped his whip and was edged out by a nose in a thrilling finish by Plinth. Those two runs proved that this former Cheltenham Festival winner still retained plenty of ability, and connections were likely full of optimism as he headed off on his summer holidays.

He made a very satisfactory return to action behind crack mares Apple’s Jade and Jer’s Girl at Navan back in November (20f hvy), beaten 11L for the win but staying on nicely for 3rd 9L behind Jer’s Girl and 2L ahead of Monksland. He was set an impossible task on his return to chasing last time out, taking on the mighty Min, but he jumped well bar one mistake five out and he was allowed to finish in his own time for 2nd.

The handicapper has handed Flaxen Flare a mark of 138 for Leopardstown and on his best handicap hurdle form he should be well capable of making an impact off that rating. He was only beaten 7L off 149 in the Vincent O’Brien handicap hurdle at Cheltenham back in 2014, and he was also narrowly beaten by Gilgamboa in a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown off 142 in January of the same year.

So, what are my reasons for fancying Flaxen Flare in a race like this? Firstly, I think the fact that Elliott has campaigned him so lightly over fences suggests that he has been minding his handicap mark. Also, he won his maiden hurdle at the Xmas meeting at Leopardstown all the way back in 2012 and his form figures at the track over hurdles read 152, with the 5th coming in a Grade 1 behind the ill fated Our Conor.

Another cause for optimism regarding Flaxen Flare’s chances in this race is his stellar record in big fields. In hurdle races with 17 runners or more he has form figures of 1124325, and that includes a win at the Cheltenham festival. Flaxen Flare evidently enjoys races that are run at an honest pace, and he looks sure to get that in this contest.

The biggest worry for him is that this will be his first start at beyond 21f, and if the ground comes up bottomless that could be an issue. However, his last two wins have come at 20f and 20.5f and he wasn’t showing any signs of stopping when unshipping Jack Kennedy over 21f at Tramore. If his stamina does hold out I think he could be a real dark horse in this race, and at odds of 40/1 he looks worth chancing each way ante-post.

STEVOS' SELECTION: 27TH DEC LEOPARDSTOWN 15.00-FLAXEN FLARE E/W @ 40/1