Cocked Hat Stakes Preview

Today's feature comes from Goodwood, a listed race run over 1m 3f, and with a number of Derby entries taking their chances it promises to be an intriguing contest, with some regally bred horses on show. Best Of Times looks like he will be the likely favourite for Godolphin, but there is no shortage of potential challengers in the field and below is my preview of what I think is an open race.

4.00 GOODWOOD COCKED HAT STAKES (Listed) 1 Mile 3 Furlongs (Good Ground)


1. BEST OF TIMES James Doyle/Saeed Bin Suroor

The current favourite and available to back at 2/1 with a couple of bookmakers at the time of writing. This colt holds entries in all the big group 1 races throughout the summer, and according to his trainer was only 85% fit when making a winning reappearance in a listed contest at Newmarket last month, just lasting home and scoring by half a length.
This son of Dubawi is bred to be useful, and there is no shortage of black type in his pedigree with his dam being related to St Leger winner Nedawi among others. The step up to 1m 3f should be no problem to this horse on breeding, and his trainer has mooted him as a possible derby horse (currently priced up at 33/1). Today will tell a lot about his prospects for that race, but as regards his chances tomorrow it is difficult to know as others look to have stronger form in the book.
He won his maiden at Goodwood last season, so at least he will handle the track, but at 2/1 he looks a bit skinny to me given what he has achieved so far, and I think he is best watched today.

2.PRINCE GAGARIN Ryan Moore/Ed Dunlop

Non Runner.


3. GLAN Y GORS Jimmy Quinn/Gay Kelleway

One of the most memorable moments of the season so far for me came on Good Friday at Lingfield in the all weather championships, when Gay Kelleway's Lightscameraaction took the  3yo sprint conditions stakes and struck a blow for smaller yards everywhere.
She looks to have another useful type on her hands here, and he is pitched in at the deep end after winning impressively on debut despite going off at 25/1. Whilst the 2nd in that race disappointed on his next run, the 3rd came out and won a maiden by 6l at Newcastle.
He has a lovely pedigree, being a son of High Chapparal, and his dam is a half sister to Group 3 winner Wharf and Docklands, who produced Arc Hero Rail Link. This is a big step up in class today, and on the figures this horse has a lot to find. However, there is every chance that he can improve and I think Ms.Kelleway is right to have a go at this race today.
The bookies are not convinced though, and currently have this one priced up at 28/1, the outsider of the field. He has to prove he belongs at this level, so the price is understandable, but a big run wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

4. GREAT GLEN Pat Dobbs/Ralph Beckett

Another son of High Chapparal this horse has yet to get his head in front after two starts in strong maidens. His first run was excellent, a close 4th behind subsequent Racing Post Trophy runner up Aloft, with today's rival Storm The Stars two short heads in front of him in 2nd. That was over a mile, and on his reappearance he was stepped up to 10f, reversing the form with Storm The Stars and finishing 2nd, over 2 lengths ahead of him.
His dam was a listed winner over 10f on soft ground and was a close 3rd in a group 2 contest over 12f, which suggests that the extra furlong today should pose no problem. The bookies currently have this one priced up at 11/1, which seems very generous seeing as they have Storm The Stars way shorter  at 3/1. Their form would indicate that there is very little between them, and in my opinion they should be much closer in the market too. This one has a derby entry, and is currently priced up at 100/1 for it. His trainer is in decent form, and at his current price he definitely represents the best value in the race.

5. MEDRANO Richard Hughes/David Brown

Archipenko colt, who took three goes to get his head in front in maiden company. However, has left those efforts well behind, and has generally run with credit since being upped in class and distance without actually winning. Was a good second to Celestial Path on his first run in listed company, beaten by 2 lengths over a mile on good ground.
Subsequently he was well beaten in the Royal Lodge on his next start, but the ground was rattling fast that day and that run can probably be excused. He was sent to France on his seasonal reappearance, presumably in search of softer ground, and he finished a reasonable 2nd to the potentially very useful Karaktar, who holds an entry for the Irish Derby. He then went on to finish 3rd behind Silverware in a group 3, again in France on heavy ground, before returning to domestic action at Chester with a creditable run in The Vase finishing 3rd with Storm The Stars half a length ahead of him in second.
His dam was pretty useful, being a listed and group 3 winner, but much like her son, she liked cut in the ground and that has to be the big worry for this horse today.
The bookies have this one priced up at around 18/1, and given that the ground is good, and there is no rain forecast it is probably an accurate reflection of his chances. One to be interested in when he is returned to soft ground.

6. MR SINGH Frankie Dettori/John Gosden

Trainer has a superb record in this race in recent times, with three wins in the last six years. Today's contender, another son of High Chapparal, had only one start as a 2yo, coming late last year at Kempton over a mile.; He finished 3rd that day, but ran as if a step up in trip would suit. He reappeared over 11f at Newbury and won in  good style, form that has been boosted by a few that were in behind him that day. He should improve again with that outing under his belt, and he is another derby entrant currently priced up at 50/1 for the showpiece.
His pedigree is not quite as attractive as some of his rivals though. His dam was useful without being top class, and her best run came with a close 3rd in the Cherry Hinton over 6f on easy ground. Today is a big step up in class, but given his connection's record in this race he has to be respected. His current price of 7/2 looks a little bit skinny to me though to be honest and others have stronger form claims as well as better pedigrees.

7. STORM THE STARS Pat Cosgrave/William Haggas

Son of Sea The Stars who took four goes to get his head in front in maidens. Form ties in closely with today's rival Great Glen who he has met twice with the score currently at 1-1. Was a close second to current Derby favourite Golden Horn on his 2nd run last year which probably explains why he is so short in the betting today at 3/1. Won a weak enough looking maiden on his second start  on fast ground over 10f this season and ran fairly well next time out,  stepped up to group 3 company in  the Chester Vase finishing 3rd  behind Hans Holbein on ground that would have been softer than ideal.
Without a doubt the best bred horse in the race, with his dam being a half sister to Giants Causeway, and black type galore amongst the rest of her siblings. Unsurprisingly he has a derby entry and he is currently a 66/1 shot for it. A big run today could make those odds tumble, considering he was so closely matched to the current favourite when they met last year.
His trainer declared himself delighted with that Chester effort, and suggested that this horse would do nothing but improve as the season wore on. If he does improve again today, and back on quicker ground there is every chance he will, then this horse has a great chance. However, given that he was behind Great Glen when they last met, his current odds of 3/1 look far too short, and from a betting perspective the value definitely lies with the Beckett horse.


CONCLUSION
This race is extremely hard to decipher, with all of the runners looking to have some sort of chance. On a personal level I would love to see Glen Y Gors run a big race, as I love to see the smaller yards putting it up to the big boys. However, he has to prove he belongs at this level and as a betting proposition looks a little too risky. Without a doubt though the value lies with the Ralph Beckett horse Great Glen, who steps up in class for the first time after two very promising runs in  maidens. His form suggests there will be nothing between himself and Storm The Stars, and at 11/1 he should give punters a good run for their money. Medrano looks to need soft ground which he doesn't get today, and the favourite has a lot to prove and looks way too short in the betting for me. The fact that Godolphin felt the need to buy into Jack Hobbs as a potential derby horse suggests that Best Of Times just might not be top class and is a possible negative.

Selections: 1. Great Glen  2. Storm The Stars 3. Glyn Y Gors