Thrown In?

After a torrid run for the blog Pleascach finally ended the drought with a superb win in the 1000 Guineas yesterday. With Jack Dexter going close on Saturday too hopefully our luck has changed and today's selection is a confident one from Ballinrobe.

The horse that is of interest is Tom Gibney's mare The Nutcracker, who takes her chance in the 7.30. She has run extremely well on her last two starts and was particularly unlucky last time out, when young Jonathan Moore dropped the reins and she failed by a head to beat Space Ship, who I know is very highly regarded by connections. Now admittedly she was receiving a fair chunk of weight from the winner, but he went on to frank the form in no uncertain terms when he hacked up in a rated hurdle at Limerick next time out. The fourth home that day, Whatsforyouwontgobyu, also went on to win next time out, beating a good horse of Des McDonagh's by 6 lengths in a maiden in Sligo.

Her previous run, when she finished 2nd to Credo Star, has also been franked with that horse going on to win on her next start, another rated hurdle. The Nutcracker was given a fairly uninspired ride that day too by Andrew Lynch, who is back on today, and I am sure he will try to hold onto her longer than he did on that occasion. This mare is a quick jumper (bar her mistake at the final fence on her last run) and seems to be suited by tight right handed tracks with her two standout efforts coming at Wexford and Down Royal. Those two efforts were on good ground too, and she gets those conditions again this evening.

 The handicapper has decided to give her a mark of just 106, and judging by the strength of her form I believe he has underestimated her ability in a big way. I was flabbergasted when I checked her price on Sunday night and can't believe she can be backed at 7/1. In my eyes she should nearly be favourite, and I can't see that price lasting too long.  Hopefully she can bring her run of seconds to an end and get the win she deserves.

Selection: The Nutcracker (7/1)