Soft Ground The Key To Endeavour?

Today's tip comes from Chepstow, where heavy rain yesterday means soft ground today. The 4.40, a class 5 handicap, sees Mad Endeavour tackle this sort of surface for the first time. The race has cut up already, with five non runners due to the going.

At first glance the selections form figures  do not make for good reading. However, on closer inspection I believe there is reason to be hopeful. He has had 8 starts so far in his career, and two of those runs came at Chepstow over 7f. These two runs have been the best of his short career, a 3rd on his second run in a maiden beaten 3l, and a 4th off a mark of 60 beaten 4l. Both times he shaped as if the 7f stretched him, and that 6f would be ideal. He races off a mark of 52 today, having been dropped 3lb after a disappointing first run of the season on fast ground over 6f at Windsor. He was hooded that day, and that combined with it being his first run back this season means he can be forgiven that lacklustre effort. 

However, what has really sparked my interest in this one today is the fact that it will be his first try on soft ground as his pedigree suggests it will suit. His sire Muhtathir's progeny seem to relish cut in the ground, as can be seen by the form of the highest rated horses he has produced, Doctor Dino and Satwa Queen. He has an overall strike rate of 17% with his offspring on soft ground.

His dam, Capefly, failed to get her head in front during her career, but she is half sister to three black type horses who all achieved their highest RPR's on easy ground. All this points to an improved performance from this horse today, and he also has the assistance of the evergreen Franny Norton in the saddle. At his current price of 10/1 this horse looks worthy of a small each way interest. 

Hopefully readers of this blog will have followed up on The Housekeeper, who I tipped up at Punchestown when she fell when still going well. She won well last night in a beginners chase up in Roscommon at 15/2, and looks to be one to keep on the right side of when sent handicapping. If Harry Kelly has sorted out her jumping she will be a force to be reckoned with this summer. I wouldn't be surprised if Galway was the target.

Selection: Mad Endeavour 10/1 e/w.