A Couple For Newcastle & The Curragh

Ascot wasn’t a complete disaster but it could have been a lot better. Brian nicked the e/w money at 33s in the Chesham and Swingalong was just touched off for us as the NB at 14/1. The places keep things ticking over but we are due a winner. Hopefully it happens this weekend. I’m just putting a couple up for Saturday, I’ll be previewing every race at the Curragh on Sunday for TXMarkets.

1.15 Curragh – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)

These are always risky races to get involved in but I can never resist backing a 66/1 poke for whom a decent case can be made on pedigree. David Marnane has already had a 2yo winner this season with Yoshi, who ran a cracking race in the Windsor Castle last week. He is well able to ready one first time up and I am hoping that Ja’marr can do himself justice on his debut in this 7f maiden.

He is by Zoustar, a top sire in Australia who, in my opinion, has been underutilised in this part of the world. His winners to runners strike rate with 2yos is a respectable 31/116 (27%) but what makes this colt of more interest is the dam side of his pedigree.

His dam, Butterfly Kiss, is by Medaglia d’Oro. She has already produced a 7f winner (3yo) and while she was unraced herself, she is out of a dam called Laughing Lashes. She won the Debutante Stakes over this C&D on yielding ground back in 2010.

Even more interestingly, she made her racecourse debut on quick ground in the fillies’ maiden on this card fourteen years ago. Trained by Jessie Harrington, she was sent off at odds of 16/1 and she just failed to get up to beat Wild Wind. She had to settle for second, a short head behind the winner.

Can Ja’marr follow in her hoofsteps? Well, the booking of Luke McAteer is a plus. He has ridden 27 2yos for Marnane, winning on three and finishing in the first four another twelve times. That’s a frame hitting strike rate of over 55% so hopefully, he can steer Ja’marr into the frame on Saturday.

This is definitely one for small stakes because you just never know how backward or forward these debutants are. However, at odds of 66/1 a small e/w bet is surely warranted.

Curragh Saturday Tip: Ja’marr e/w @ 66/1

2.35 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase Handicap (Class 2)

Nothing is really taking my fancy in the Northumberland Plate but there’s one in the consolation race that might outrun his odds of 16/1. Pons Aelius ran poorly over 14f at Catterick last time out but there was more encouragement to take from his previous outing there over today’s trip of 16f. He was only beaten 1.75L by Animato off a rating of 69 and it marked a welcome return to form after a long spell in the doldrums.

His last previous decent effort came over this C&D last November. He finished 2.75L fourth behind Aqwaam off a mark of 78, just fading in the last half a furlong. That wasn’t his first good run around Newcastle. In June 2022, he ran into second over 12f off a mark of 75, beat just over a length for the win.

Today, Pons Aelius rocks up with an official rating of 68. That’s 10lbs lower than he was last November. Now, it must be said that his mark has dropped for a reason and this is a better class of race than he has been running in recently. However, he has won in class 2 company before and that was off a mark of 80 at Kempton a couple of years ago.

Charlie Johnston has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride. He is 7/33 for the yard and he has finished in the first four on another thirteen occasions (60% frame hitting strike rate). Pons Aelius has a decent draw in stall 6, hopefully he can make a bold bid at odds of 16/1.

Saturday Newcastle Tip: Pons Aelius e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Preview

A bit of respite at last. Go Daddy finished third for us at 33s and he was arguably a shade unlucky. Bellum Justum also placed at 20s. Things are looking up! We go again on Day 4, 2024 Royal Ascot Friday preview is below.

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3)

Fairy Godmother is seemingly highly regarded in Ballydoyle and she is the 7/4 fav. She was beaten on debut decisively by Sparkling Sea but she turned that 2.5L deficit on yielding ground into a neck win on better ground at Naas.

In that Naas race California Dreamer was back in third for Adrian Murray. The Westmeath man had a 150/1 winner at this meeting last year and while this filly isn’t quite as big as that, she still looks a pretty generous price to me at odds of 18/1.

Maiden

She comes into this race as a maiden after two starts. Her best effort came second time up in that Naas G3. David Egan sneaked up the inside and he sent his partner to the front to go and win the race 2F out. A furlong out it looked like she had it in the bag but in hindsight, he probably went too soon and she was reeled in close to home by Fairy Godmother (and Sparkling Sea).

It was a very encouraging turf debut by the daughter of Mehmas and she should be effective on the fast ground at Ascot. I think she’ll be suited by a strongly run race over this trip and if David Egan is more patient and times his challenge right, she could hit the frame at odds of 18/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: California Dreamer e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Inisherin has been hammered into 9/4 for this 3yo Group 1. Regular readers will know I put him up for the 2000 Guineas but it seems like he is better over shorter. He was extremely impressive when hosing up on soft ground at Haydock last time and he has run well over a mile on good to firm ground in the past. I have to be honest, I saw him as potentially staying further than a mile before the Guineas so if he has the speed for this on fast ground, he’s some horse.

He isn’t any use to us at 9/4 though. Instead, I am going to take a punt on the French raider, Classic Flower. She is drawn low, which has generally been a negative in massive fields this week. However, in the Norfolk the first two home were drawn in 4 & 2 so hopefully, there’ll be no bias in this fifteen runner field.

Calyx

This French trained G2 winner is by Calyx, an up and coming sire. She has a lot of experience for a horse of her age and this will be the first time she has got nice ground this season. She won her G2 at Chantilly last season on good to firm, beating the then 105 rated Dawn Charger into second and the subsequent Temple Stakes third Seven Questions into third.

Her form figures on good/good to firm ground read 1113. She ran well in a G3 last time, despite being in season, so I would expect a big jolt of improvement on that effort. Mickael Barzalona rode when she had her biggest win at Chantilly and he is back in the plate today. Classic Flower has run well before over 7f so this stiff 6f could really suit her and at odds of 40/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Classic Flower e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

3.45 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1)

A race in which it is hard to see any of the bigger priced ones making an impact. I was half tempted by Skellet but she is from the same family as Skitter Scatter and she didn’t train on from 2yo to 3yo. See The Fire is another one with 2yo form that might give her a squeak but it is alarming that Oisin Murphy has jumped ship to ride Ramatuelle.

I am going to give this race a wide berth. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2)

Mullins and Moore teamed up to win with Belloccio earlier this week. They are hoping to repeat the trick with Ethical Diamond in this handicap and the bookies make him the 11/4 fav. He beat a decent horse in Beechwood when winning his maiden at Limerick and he ran a blinder on his handicap debut over 10f at Leopardstown last month. He did get 5lbs for that near miss though so he’ll need a big career best here.

At odds of 33/1, maybe Struth can go well for Charlie Johnston and Richard Kingscote. Thirteen days ago at Haydock this 4yo son of Australia bounced back to form after a couple of poor runs. He was only beat 0.75L in that valuable 12f race by Iron Lion and he gets in off the same rating today.

While Between Drinks

It has been a while between drinks for this horse. His last win came on his seasonal reappearance last year, a 12f handicap at Chester off 86. Since then he has run some big races without getting his head in front, including at this track.

This gelding has run here on four occasions. He flopped over C&D in the King George V Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year but in July he was beat just 1.75L off 95. Then, in August he was beat a head off 94, the same mark he races off today. He lost a shoe when fourth in the Lavazza Stakes on his last visit to this track.

Richard Kingscote has finished third all three times he has ridden Struth, another third would do us tomorrow. At odds of 33/1, Struth is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Struth e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) 

5.05 – Sandringham Stakes (Class 2)

So far this week it has looked like a low draw has been a big negative in massive fields on the straight course. That has to be a huge worry for those who have backed Indelible into the 9/2 fav. She is clearly a talented horse but that draw in stall 4, and the fact she is unproven on fast ground, has to be a concern for fav backers.

One horse who won’t have any concerns about the draw is Bellarchi. This filly is trained by Grant Tuer, a man who knows how to win a handicap. This filly has landed a nice draw in stall 26 and she will enjoy this ground.

C&D Form

Tuer’s filly has won two of her last three starts in handicap company. Her last win came over this C&D off 87 on good ground when she beat a nice horse of Ed Walker’s by 0.75L. If she was mine, I’d have targeted this race immediately after that win and the way she has been campaigned since suggests that Tuer has done exactly that.

Bellarchi’s last two runs have come in Listed company. She wasn’t disgraced when beat 4.75L at York six days after her Ascot win. Then, two weeks later she ran in another Listed heat at Epsom. That was a poor effort but the good to soft ground and drop to 7f were probably not in her favour.

She now returns to the scene of her last handicap win off a mark of 91. Brandon Wilkie, who has won on her before, is back in the plate and with his 5lbs claim, she’ll be carrying a lovely racing weight. It looked like she won with a fair bit in hand here last month, hopefully the return to this venue sparks her back to that sort of form. At 50/1, Bellarchi is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Bellarchi e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)

5.40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

We backed Mondo Man in the Prix du Jockey Club a few weeks ago. He absolutely flew home down the outside that day over 10f and I think this step up to 12f is really going to suit the son of Mondialiste. William Buick keeps the faith on P&J Brandt’s charge and odds of 16/1 about the French raider look far too big now he drops back down into G2 company.

He’s the type of horse that could well be suited by a strongly run race. In France, they often dawdle before sprinting in the closing stages and that is probably why this horse has only won one of his five starts.

Mondo Man finished a neck behind Ghostwriter at Chantilly. He was fourth in the 2000 Guineas and is rated 112. Mondo Man has been handed a rating of 111 on the back of that run so he is joint top rated with Diego Velazquez, yet he is 4x his price. At odds of 16/1, he has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4 places)

6.15 – Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (Class 2)

From a favourable draw in stall 25, I think Got To Love A Grey could make a bold bid. Karl Burke’s daughter of Dark Angel has been running in stakes company this season and she has yet to encounter quick ground. She gets in off a mark of 97 for her handicap debut and a couple of snippets of her form suggest she could be fairly treated.

She beat Classic Flower (our bet in the Commonwealth) by 1.5L on good to soft ground at Chantilly back in March. That was her second win at Listed level. Last season, she made all to win a similar race at York, beating her stablemate Dorothy Lawrence into second. That was on good to firm ground and it was good ground for her next start in the Queen Mary over this C&D.

Queen Mary Run

Drawn in stall 15 that day, she tried to make all and she ended up finishing a very creditable fifth, beat 4.5L for the win. Just in front of her was subsequent G3 winner Juniper Berries in fourth. In third was future Listed winner Beautiful Diamond (rated 103) and the winner is rated 108.

That run suggests that there might be a little bit of wriggle room off her mark of 97. Sam James usually rides and he is back on board again. 5F is her best trip, her two best runs have come on good/good to firm and she is well drawn. Chances are, something will probably come and do her late but at 40/1, it is worth chancing that she hangs on for a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Got To Love A Grey e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Preview

When faced with times of trouble some say it is best to focus on the positives. That won’t take us too long. Another day, another blank. Ropey Guest, Betty Clover and Calyxoh had more horses behind them than in front of them at the finish but again, a place evaded us. At least things can’t get any worse, I suppose. My 2024 Royal Ascot Thursday preview is below.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)

A 5f Group 2 for the juveniles kicks off Day 3 of the Royal Meeting. Whistlejacket heads the betting for O’Brien and Moore. Ballydoyle fired in a double on Wednesday and this horse was very impressive when landing a listed contest at the Curragh last time out. However, both his runs to date came on testing ground and conditions couldn’t be much more different today. That being said, his full brother Little Big Bear won on good to firm so he may well handle it.

The fact remains that we don’t know for sure if he’ll go on the ground and that is off putting with a horse as short as he is. Another soft ground winner in this field is the Karl Burke trained Milford. This Kodiac colt looked very promising when hacking up on debut at Hamilton. How strong was the race? Not very, but he was sent off at just 6/5 and he won in the manner of a very good horse.

Given his pedigree, I would expect him to be even more at home on this fast ground. I’ve looked back at the form of multiple horses bred along the same lines (Kodiac x Shamardal dam) and almost every one I checked liked fast conditions. Burke has already had a juvenile winner and if the money comes for this lad, it could be telling. At odds of 18/1, Milford is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Milford e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

This contest should be run at a very strong pace. There’s a heap of pace angles in it and I am going to bank on it setting up for a hold up horse. The one I have come down on is Go Daddy. Trained by Grassick and Muir, this son of Smooth Daddy will be partnered by Lewis Edmunds. He’s run twice this season and he shaped much better on his second start at Newbury in the London Gold Cup.

In that contest he was dropped out early and he travelled into the race well. He got slightly hampered in the last furlong or so but he ran on pretty well for seventh. Ok, he was almost 8L behind the winner King’s Gambit but he was only 2L behind Persica, 3.5L behind Chantilly and 3.75L behind Poniros, all of whom reoppose here.

Go Daddy was running off 89 that day, he’s now been dropped to 87. He is now 11lbs better off with Persica, 5lbs better off with Chantilly and 6lbs better off with Poniros. Those three are significantly shorter in the betting here than Go Daddy and given the relatively small distances between them, surely Go Daddy is the e/w value here at 33/1. He’s a half brother to a 14f winner so hopefully the step up to 12f will suit.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Go Daddy e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

3.45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)

A race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden in recent seasons. Gosden is triple handed this year and Aidan runs two but the favourite is trained by Charlie Appleby, a handler who has yet to taste success in this contest.

Diamond Rain is just 13/8 to extend her unbeaten sequence to three. She won her novice here on debut over 8f (gd/sft) and then added a 10f Newbury Listed race in fine fashion on her second start. Will she stay 12f? Her dam won the Oaks so she probably will and she wasn’t stopping at the finish at Newbury.

The value probably lies with one of the three Gosden horses but I just can’t really make a genuine case for them. The percentage call is to leave this race alone. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Gold Cup (Group 1)

The class act in this race is Kyprios. Aidan O’Brien’s star stayer won this in 2022 and he is back to try and regain his crown two years later. Now a 6yo, the 117 rated son of Galileo has won his last two starts over 14f in Listed and G3 company and he’ll be hoping to take revenge on Trawlerman, his conqueror here over 16f in the Champions Long Distance Cup back in October.

Trawlerman was last sighted finishing behind Tower Of London in Meydan three months ago. He will relish this quick ground and he looks a threat. So does Coltrane. It feels like he’s been around for donkey’s years but he is still just a 7yo. He likes it here and he usually goes out on his shield.

The one I am backing is Caius Chorister. She is a gutsy mare and David Menuisier deserves to land a big one after some excellent runs at the highest level in recent weeks. This trip is a new test for the daughter of Golden Horn but it looks well worth trying.

Menuisier’s charge already has form in the book with Coltrane and Sweet William, both of whom beat her by a head over 16f this season on easy ground. Caius Chorister has done most her winning on good to firm ground so she’ll enjoy the conditions and she’s 3lbs better off with both Coltrane and Sweet William. The fav will probably be hard to beat but with odds of 20/1 available, it is worth taking a chance that Caius Chorister can run into a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Caius Chorister e/w @ 20/1 

5.05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

I can’t believe I am tipping up another horse that will be ridden by Jim Crowley but desperate times require desperate measures and all that. Whip Cracker is a horse we have previous with. We backed him on his third start in a Listed race at Newmarket and he ran a blinder to finish second, 3.25L behind Jayarebe, a 9/1 shot for the G3 Hampton Court.

A short head behind Whip Cracker in that 9f heat was Caviar Heights, now rated 109. In fourth was Ambiente Friendly, now rated 117 after finishing second in the Derby. Not bad form, is it. Whip Cracker ran again two weeks later upped to 10f in another Listed race at Newmarket. He was too keen and weakened so I’m not surprised Hughes has decided to come back in trip.

Usually I swerve handicap debutants but this horse has already run in a decent sized field in a Listed race so I am making an exception. He has a favoured high draw, his best run suggests that a mark of 101 could be workable and he has form on quickish ground. At odds of 28/1, Whip Cracker is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 28/1 (4 places 1/4)

5.40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 2)

Oisin Murphy is in rare form at the moment and he could get a good spin on Bellum Justum here. This horse first caught my eye when I was putting Inisherin up for the Guineas. He beat Kevin Ryan’s charge (now fav for the Commonwealth Cup) in that 8f maiden on good to firm ground and I was keen to see how he got on when stepped up to Listed company on his return at Epsom.

The son of Sea The Stars duly went and won that race, beating Chief Little Rock into third. He went out and won a G3 next time out and is 12/1 for the King Edward on Friday. Andrew Balding decided to head back to Epsom for the big one and while he ran respectably, Bellum Justum looked like he didn’t stay on the rain softened ground and he weakened into seventh.

The return to 10F is a big plus for this colt and the good to firm ground will suit him better than the good to soft at Epsom. I was surprised to see him as big as 20/1 when I had a look at the odds this evening and at that price, he has to be worth chancing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Bellum Justum e/w @ 20/1

6.15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

We backed Greatgadian for the AW Champs Mile final at Newcastle back in March. He ran a shocker that day but he has been freshened up and that, combined with his form on fast ground at Ascot, has convinced me to go in on him for small stakes again.

This son of Siyouni has a decent record when fresh. When he is returning from breaks of 59 days or more, he has career form figures of 25141. All his most recent form is on artificial surfaces but he has run some more than decent races in turf handicaps, including at this meeting.

Two years ago he ran a nice enough race to be beat 7L in the Hunt Cup here over a mile off 102. A couple of months later he ran a blinder to finish 1.75L behind Jungle Cove here, again over a mile, off a mark of 101. His only run at Ascot over 7f came all the way back in 2020 on his debut and he again ran well, finishing third beat 4L.

Course Form

Overall, his career form figures at Ascot read 3/11/3/2/15 so he has run well there more often than not. He is also going to be racing off an effective mark of 89 with Aidan Keeley’s claim, so he’ll be 13lbs lower than he was in the 2022 Hunt Cup and 12lbs lower than when placed twice later on in 2022.

He wasn’t fresh when running in handicaps here at the last two meetings so hopefully, the decision to give him an 83 day break pays dividends. The way this week has gone so far, keep stakes small, but at 66/1 I think Greatgadian could outrun those odds.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Greatgadian e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Preview

What a trainwreck Tuesday was. Cairo got badly outpaced in the Queen Anne but to his credit he finished fairly well for eighth. Nascimento was given a Jamie Spencer special and though he finished 10th, it was an encouraging run. Makarova ran her heart out but the wrong tactics were employed. Alyanaabi finished fifth, Knight finished tenth and we saved the worst until last with Lucander. Hopefully today goes better, Dave’s 2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday preview is below.

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)

Our first 2yo bet of the meeting, Nascimento, ran on well but failed to get into the shake up in the Coventry. We’ll try again in this 5f contest which is restricted to 2yo fillies only. This race has been a happy hunting ground for the Americans in the past. Since 2015 the prize has gone stateside four times, with Wesley Ward responsible for three of those wins (he also won it in 2009).

The sole US representative this year is Ultima Grace. Trained by Ward, Joel Rosario will ride and she is an 11/1 poke. She hacked up over 4.5f on the dirt at Keeneland on debut, winning by 3.75L and showing lots of speed. The daughter of American Pharoah is drawn in stall 17 and she’ll likely go hard from the front.

No Easy Lead

However, she is unlikely to get an easy lead and if she does, she will probably have gone too hard early doors. She is drawn next door to the favourite, Make Haste, and Diego Dias’ Blue Point filly also displayed plenty of speed on her debut at Naas. She won that by over 3L but the form doesn’t look particularly strong.

The one I’ll take a chance on at a decent e/w price is Betty Clover. Georgia Dobie rides for Eve Johnson Houghton and she is 2/2 on good ground. She could only finish second on soft ground at Salisbury second time up but she bounced back returned to a sounder surface in a Listed heat at York on her last start.

She is drawn in stall 15, right beside the Ward and Dias speedsters. Those two should give this hold up sort a nice tow into the race and the daughter of Time Test should also relish the rattling quick ground. Judging from her York win, she might be even better suited by the stiffer test at Ascot as she needed every inch of the 5f on the Knavesmire. I think Georgia Dobie is an underrated jockey, hopefully she can hit the frame on Betty Clover at odds of 18/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Betty Clover e/w @ 18/1 (5 places)

3.05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)

A dozen will go to post for this Group 2 and four of them are Galileo 3yos trained by Aidan O’Brien. To be honest, this race isn’t making a whole lot of appeal from an e/w perspective. I can’t really make a case for any of the big priced runners and I’m not going to just put one up for the sake of it.

If Mina Rashid was still 25s I’d be half tempted by him but those odds have long gone. It’s going to be a long week and there’s going to be better betting races than this in the coming days. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet

3.45 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)

Royal Dress won for us at 33/1 earlier this season and she was unlucky not to follow up at Epsom. She was repeatedly denied a clear run and in the end, she had to settle for third, 0.75L behind Breege. She is 10/1 today but all her best form is on softer ground than she’ll get here.

Back in fourth in that Epsom contest was Julia Augusta. She was only 2L behind Breege (12/1 here) and 1.25L behind Royal Dress, yet she is as big as 50/1 for this contest. David O’Meara’s daughter of Ulysses was only reeled in late on at Epsom and Jason Hart dropped his whip so the run probably deserves to be marked up.

Close To Black Type

This 5yo mare has gone very close to earning black type on her last two starts. On her penultimate run at Kempton (8f) she finished fourth in a Listed race, just 1.5L behind the winner Adelaise. On those two runs I think her rating of 97 underrates her and in my opinion, she is easily a 100+ horse.

The slight drop back in trip should suit her today and so should this quicker ground. She hacked up in a Thirsk maiden on her first run on good ground and she also ran a fine race on her sole start on good to firm ground in a Newbury Handicap back in 2022. Danny Tudhope takes over in the plate, hopefully he can steer Julia Augusta into the places at odds of 40/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Julia Augusta e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

4.25 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)

This race revolves around Auguste Rodin. Aidan O’Brien’s son of Deep Impact is a boom or bust character and he seems to be pretty hard to predict. He was no match for White Birch on his last start at the Curragh (10f gd/yld) but it was a better run than he produced when finishing stone last over in Meydan back in March. Odds of 15/8 could look generous if he does turn up at his best but he isn’t the most reliable of horses.

Inspiral was turned over in the Lockinge on her return but John Gosden said she needed that run. She won three G1s on the spin last season after finishing second in the Queen Anne. She proved she stays 10f on a flat track by winning at the Breeders’ Cup but this track will provide a sterner test of her stamina. The ground will suit her though and it’ll be fascinating to see how well she sees the race out.

French Raider

The one I was going to side with here is the French raider, Blue Rose Cen. Like Survie, this filly is by Churchill and while she has won on testing ground, her best wins have come at today’s trip of 10f on fast ground. She absolutely hosed up on good/good to firm in places in the Prix De Diane last June at Chantilly (10f gd) and she then signed off for the season by winning the Prix de L’Opera on good to firm at Longchamp in October.

I’d imagine she needed the run on her seasonal comeback at Longchamp last month. She was only 2L behind Horizon Dore and she had already had three runs before that race. Blue Rose Cen should improve plenty with that outing under her belt and she’ll have the assistance of the top class Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. Unfortunately, she has shortened into single figure odds from 12/1 so I won’t be putting her up, but I do think she has solid e/w claims.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet

5.05 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)

A thirty runner cavalry charge and usually, a middle to high draw is an advantage. We backed Aerion Power in this last year and he ran a huge race to finish fourth. However, he was effectively running off 92 with Harry Davies’ claim and he is in off 100 today. He has also been drawn in stall number one so the percentage call is to leave him alone on this occasion.

My plan to wait until this morning to do the preview has backfired somewhat. I was planning on putting Crack Shot up at 25s but his price has collapsed. So, instead, we’ll have to row back in behind long time friend of the blog, Ropey Guest.

Run For Our Money

We’ve been backing this horse since his 2yo days and he almost always gives us a run for our money. Last year at York he finally won a big handicap and thankfully, we were on at 40/1. Since then, he has held his form really well.

The win came off 95 and he’s five pounds higher here, but he was only beat 2L on his return here over 7f last month off 101 so I’m not too worried about his mark. He was beat just 1L off 99 in the Balmoral over C&D back in October, finishing 0.75L ahead of Docklands who was running off 104. That form looks alright now after his fine run in the Queen Anne.

On his last five starts he’s been sent off at 40/1 (won), 20/1, 28/1 (beat 2.25L), 40/1 (2nd beat 1L) and 33/1 (5th beat 2L). He’s 33/1 today and with seven places on offer, Ropey Guest is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Ropey Guest e/w @ 33/1 (7 places) NB

5.40 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap)

Last year we managed to find Villanova Queen at 25/1 in this contest. She won off 99 that day under Colin Keane and she is back to defend her crown off just a pound higher. All five of her starts since then have come in stakes company and she’s been beaten around 5L in four of them. Has Jessie Harrington had this race in mind ever since winning last year? It’s possible, and she has a nice draw too in stall 24.

Aurora Dawn is another interesting one off just 81. She carries a lovely racing weight and she got no run at Goodwood last time. She relishes fast ground and it would be no surprise if she were to hit the frame under Saffie Osborne. Unfortunately, the money is coming for her and she’s as short as 11/1 with some firms now.

Pearl Can Shine

However, the one I’ll side with is Mystic Pearl for Haggas and Marquand. This daughter of Invincible Spirit ran a lovely race over this C&D last month. She had a couple of below average runs in G2 company over in Dubai in the early part of the year but she should be a lot more at home in handicap company.

In that race here last time out she finished close up in third off 97. Tom Marquand didn’t exactly throw the kitchen sink at her in the closing stages and it looked to my eye like she finished with a fair bit left in the tank. If it was a sighter for this race, it couldn’t have worked out much better with the handicapper leaving her mark alone. On her Sandown Listed win last July she should be capable of winning off her current rating so at 28/1, Mystic Pearl is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Mystic Pearl e/w @ 28/1 (5 places) NAP

6.15 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)

We may as well swing for the fences here in this 27 runner sprint. This race often throws up a big priced winner and I’m going to take a punt on Calyxoh for Billy Loughnane and Jane Chapple-Hyam. By the hugely promising sire Calyx, this lad has run twice, both over 6f.

He was reeled in close to home on debut on good ground at Newmarket, losing out to Camera Shy by a head. Then, on softer ground at Leicester he again showed plenty of speed before running out of petrol inside the last furlong and fading into fourth.

On the evidence of those two runs, he looks well worth trying over this minimum trip. His dam was second in a G2 on good to firm at Ascot so I am hoping this ground will bring about a big improvement on his last effort. Billy Loughnane will be on cloud nine after his win in the Coventry yesterday, hopefully he can steer Calyxoh into the frame too at odds of 66/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Calyxoh e/w @ 66/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

Survie A Lively Outsider At Chantilly

I am glad we kept the powder dry on Saturday. I like the look of a filly in the Prix De Diane Longines tomorrow and I think she might outrun her odds of 40/1. Our last French fancy, Mondo Man, ran a cracker for us in the French Derby. Hopefully this filly can go one place better and land the each way money on Sunday.

Survie is a daughter of Churchill who is trained by Arc winning handler Nicolas Clement. Her Le Havre dam Sotteville was pretty decent and her three best runs in stakes company (including a Listed win) all came on quick ground. 

Her sire won the Guineas on good to firm and so far, his winner to runners strike rate on quick ground is 28%, compared to 13% on heavy and 15% on soft. It is good to firm at Chantilly tomorrow and I think that is what this filly wants.

Bottomless

Survie ran twice as a two year old with both runs coming on the all weather. Those races were of average quality and she didn’t win either by much, but she won them in very cosy fashion. Clement stepped her markedly up in class on her seasonal return at Longchamp (9f hvy) and she ran a very nice race in that Group 3, meeting trouble in running and staying on nicely under tender handling for third on bottomless ground.

She finished 6L behind Dare To Dream in that contest but when upped in trip to 10f on much better ground in a Longchamp G2 (gd/fm), she turned the form around. 

This time, she was again given a very easy time by Stephane Pasquier and just like on her previous start, she ran on strongly close to home to finish third, just 1.5L behind Birthe and nearly 2l in front of Dare To Dream. Incidentally, War Chimes was back in fifth and she ran third in the Oaks on her next outing.

How Big Is Her Engine?

In my opinion, this horse has yet to be asked for her true maximum effort. She’s only been tapped with the whip four or five times total in her four races to date and she still looked a touch green in the final furlong at Longchamp last time. Given that this is a Group 1, surely Stephane Pasquier will finally try to find out how big an engine she truly has.

Maybe she’ll come up short, but the form of her last run looks ok to me. She should relish the ground, she stays the trip so at odds of 40/1, it is worth chancing Survie e/w.

2024 Prix de Diane Longines Tip: Survie e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Makarova Worth A Punt At Ascot

Our last bet on the blog narrowly missed out on a place in France. Mondo Man stayed on really well from the back to finish fifth in the Prix du Jockey Club, just a neck away from landing the e/w money. I have another big priced ante-post fancy for the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and I’m hoping she can land the e/w cash at odds of 50/1.

Needed The Run

We backed Makarova on her seasonal return at Newmarket back in April. She clearly needed the run that day and the way she was ridden suggested that connections had another day in mind. When this mare is at her best, she is held up for a late run.

At Newmarket she was ridden more aggressively than usual but on her next start in France she was dropped out early. She ran on really well to finish 2.5L behind Ponntos in that Longchamp G3 (5f sft). I am not surprised that she is being kept to 5f now because her best form is over that trip.

Rock Solid 5F Form

Last season the daughter of Acclamation ran a massive race on nice ground in the Prix de L’Abbaye (5f gd). She was beat just 1.75L behind Highfield Princess and she was upsides the likes of Get Ahead and Aesop’s Fables (16s for this). 0.75L behind her was Kerdos, an 11/1 shot for this.

Makarova’s general form over 5f on decent ground is mustard. She has never been beaten more than 2.5L over 5f on good to soft or quicker, including excellent efforts in the Abbaye and also in the Nunthorpe when she ran on well for fourth, beat 2.25L for the win and less than a length behind Bradsell in third, the winner of this race last season.

She ran a nice race on her sole previous visit to Ascot, finishing sixth of fifteen in last year’s Champion Sprint. The trip that day was 6f and the ground was soft, I think quicker ground and 5f at Ascot will play more to her strengths. As an added bonus, Ed Walker is in scintillating form at the moment, hopefully that continues through next week. At odds of 50/1, Makarova is worth backing e/w.

King Charles III Stakes Royal Ascot Tip: Makarova e/w @ 50/1

Take Me Up To Mondo

After all the speculation, the Epsom Derby turned into a City of Troy procession. The son of Justify silenced his many doubters (including me) but it might be a bit too soon to say he’s a better sire than Galileo as Aidan did after the race.

Our selection Deira Mile ran with great credit considering where he came from. He just got up for fourth and we collected on our e/w NB bet at 25/1. Tomorrow, the spotlight will be on Chantilly for the French version, the Prix du Jockey Club. This time the trip is 10f and, unlike it says on the Racing Post site, the ground will be good to soft.

Under The Radar

Fourteen have been declared and it looks to me like one may have slipped under the radar at huge odds. Mondo Man will be ridden by William Buick and P&J Brandt’s son of Mondialiste has the form to hit the frame here on ground that I think will suit him well.

This colt hasn’t been seen since running really well in a Longchamp G3 at the start of April (9f hvy). He finished 1.25L behind the winner Atlast but he got going too late and I’m not sure he was in love with the ground. On that evidence, the step up to 10f looks sure to suit and he had First Look and Sunway (both shorter here) behind him.

That wasn’t the first time he shaped as though further would suit. On his first start in pattern company on the all weather at Chantilly he was also strong at the finish, despite Cristian Demuro pulling the neck off him for nearly a furlong after the start. He finished just a head behind the runner up Wootton Verni, a horse that went on to beat Sunway by a neck on his next start.

Pedigree Clues

Mondo Man isn’t by the most illustrious sire in the race but he is from a decent family. His two brothers both won races at trips ranging from 8f to 10f and his dam, Moghrama, is a half to 8f Group 2 winner Mythical Magic (good ground) and the Nell Gwyn winner Esentepe, also on good ground. Mondialiste won a G1 on fast ground over 10f so there is every chance he is going to stay this trip.

The booking of William Buick catches the eye too. One of Mondo Man’s part owners is Norwegian so perhaps he pulled a few strings to get Buick on board. Stall 9 won’t be an inconvenience as this lad will be dropped out to come with a late run, hopefully Buick can time his challenge right and hit the frame. At 33/1, Mondo Man is the e/w selection.

2024 Prix Du Jockey Club Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos