What a trainwreck Tuesday was. Cairo got badly outpaced in the Queen Anne but to his credit he finished fairly well for eighth. Nascimento was given a Jamie Spencer special and though he finished 10th, it was an encouraging run. Makarova ran her heart out but the wrong tactics were employed. Alyanaabi finished fifth, Knight finished tenth and we saved the worst until last with Lucander. Hopefully today goes better, Dave’s 2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday preview is below.
2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)
Our first 2yo bet of the meeting, Nascimento, ran on well
but failed to get into the shake up in the Coventry. We’ll try again in this 5f
contest which is restricted to 2yo fillies only. This race has been a happy
hunting ground for the Americans in the past. Since 2015 the prize has gone
stateside four times, with Wesley Ward responsible for three of those wins (he
also won it in 2009).
The sole US representative this year is Ultima Grace.
Trained by Ward, Joel Rosario will ride and she is an 11/1 poke. She hacked up
over 4.5f on the dirt at Keeneland on debut, winning by 3.75L and showing lots
of speed. The daughter of American Pharoah is drawn in stall 17 and she’ll
likely go hard from the front.
No Easy Lead
However, she is unlikely to get an easy lead and if she
does, she will probably have gone too hard early doors. She is drawn next door
to the favourite, Make Haste, and Diego Dias’ Blue Point filly also displayed
plenty of speed on her debut at Naas. She won that by over 3L but the form
doesn’t look particularly strong.
The one I’ll take a chance on at a decent e/w price is Betty
Clover. Georgia Dobie rides for Eve Johnson Houghton and she is 2/2 on good
ground. She could only finish second on soft ground at Salisbury second time up
but she bounced back returned to a sounder surface in a Listed heat at York on
her last start.
She is drawn in stall 15, right beside the Ward and Dias
speedsters. Those two should give this hold up sort a nice tow into the race
and the daughter of Time Test should also relish the rattling quick ground. Judging
from her York win, she might be even better suited by the stiffer test at Ascot
as she needed every inch of the 5f on the Knavesmire. I think Georgia Dobie is an
underrated jockey, hopefully she can hit the frame on Betty Clover at odds of 18/1.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Betty Clover e/w @ 18/1 (5 places)
3.05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
A dozen will go to post for this Group 2 and four of them
are Galileo 3yos trained by Aidan O’Brien. To be honest, this race isn’t making
a whole lot of appeal from an e/w perspective. I can’t really make a case for
any of the big priced runners and I’m not going to just put one up for the sake
of it.
If Mina Rashid was still 25s I’d be half tempted by him but
those odds have long gone. It’s going to be a long week and there’s going to be
better betting races than this in the coming days. No bet.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet
3.45 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Royal Dress won for us at 33/1 earlier this season and she
was unlucky not to follow up at Epsom. She was repeatedly denied a clear run
and in the end, she had to settle for third, 0.75L behind Breege. She is 10/1
today but all her best form is on softer ground than she’ll get here.
Back in fourth in that Epsom contest was Julia Augusta. She
was only 2L behind Breege (12/1 here) and 1.25L behind Royal Dress, yet she is as
big as 50/1 for this contest. David O’Meara’s daughter of Ulysses was only
reeled in late on at Epsom and Jason Hart dropped his whip so the run probably
deserves to be marked up.
Close To Black Type
This 5yo mare has gone very close to earning black type on
her last two starts. On her penultimate run at Kempton (8f) she finished fourth
in a Listed race, just 1.5L behind the winner Adelaise. On those two runs I
think her rating of 97 underrates her and in my opinion, she is easily a 100+
horse.
The slight drop back in trip should suit her today and so
should this quicker ground. She hacked up in a Thirsk maiden on her first run
on good ground and she also ran a fine race on her sole start on good to firm
ground in a Newbury Handicap back in 2022. Danny Tudhope takes over in the
plate, hopefully he can steer Julia Augusta into the places at odds of 40/1.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Julia Augusta e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)
4.25 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)
This race revolves around Auguste Rodin. Aidan O’Brien’s son
of Deep Impact is a boom or bust character and he seems to be pretty hard to
predict. He was no match for White Birch on his last start at the Curragh (10f
gd/yld) but it was a better run than he produced when finishing stone last over
in Meydan back in March. Odds of 15/8 could look generous if he does turn up at
his best but he isn’t the most reliable of horses.
Inspiral was turned over in the Lockinge on her return but
John Gosden said she needed that run. She won three G1s on the spin last season
after finishing second in the Queen Anne. She proved she stays 10f on a flat
track by winning at the Breeders’ Cup but this track will provide a sterner
test of her stamina. The ground will suit her though and it’ll be
fascinating to see how well she sees the race out.
French Raider
The one I was going to side with here is the French raider,
Blue Rose Cen. Like Survie, this filly is by Churchill and while she has won on
testing ground, her best wins have come at today’s trip of 10f on fast ground.
She absolutely hosed up on good/good to firm in places in the Prix De Diane
last June at Chantilly (10f gd) and she then signed off for the season by
winning the Prix de L’Opera on good to firm at Longchamp in October.
I’d imagine she needed the run on her seasonal comeback at
Longchamp last month. She was only 2L behind Horizon Dore and she had already
had three runs before that race. Blue Rose Cen should improve plenty with that outing
under her belt and she’ll have the assistance of the top class Christophe
Soumillon in the saddle. Unfortunately, she has shortened into single figure odds
from 12/1 so I won’t be putting her up, but I do think she has solid
e/w claims.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet
5.05 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
A thirty runner cavalry charge and usually, a middle to high
draw is an advantage. We backed Aerion Power in this last year and he ran a
huge race to finish fourth. However, he was effectively running off 92 with
Harry Davies’ claim and he is in off 100 today. He has also been drawn in stall
number one so the percentage call is to leave him alone on this occasion.
My plan to wait until this morning to do the preview has
backfired somewhat. I was planning on putting Crack Shot up at 25s but his price
has collapsed. So, instead, we’ll have to row back in behind long time friend
of the blog, Ropey Guest.
Run For Our Money
We’ve been backing this horse since his 2yo days and he almost
always gives us a run for our money. Last year at York he finally won a big
handicap and thankfully, we were on at 40/1. Since then, he has held his form
really well.
The win came off 95 and he’s five pounds higher here, but he
was only beat 2L on his return here over 7f last month off 101 so I’m not too
worried about his mark. He was beat just 1L off 99 in the Balmoral over C&D
back in October, finishing 0.75L ahead of Docklands who was running off 104. That
form looks alright now after his fine run in the Queen Anne.
On his last five starts he’s been sent off at 40/1 (won),
20/1, 28/1 (beat 2.25L), 40/1 (2nd beat 1L) and 33/1 (5th beat 2L). He’s 33/1
today and with seven places on offer, Ropey Guest is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Ropey Guest e/w @ 33/1 (7 places) NB
5.40 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap)
Last year we managed to find Villanova Queen at 25/1 in this
contest. She won off 99 that day under Colin Keane and she is back to defend
her crown off just a pound higher. All five of her starts since then have come in
stakes company and she’s been beaten around 5L in four of them. Has Jessie
Harrington had this race in mind ever since winning last year? It’s possible,
and she has a nice draw too in stall 24.
Aurora Dawn is another interesting one off just 81. She
carries a lovely racing weight and she got no run at Goodwood last time. She
relishes fast ground and it would be no surprise if she were to hit the frame
under Saffie Osborne. Unfortunately, the money is coming for her and she’s as
short as 11/1 with some firms now.
Pearl Can Shine
However, the one I’ll side with is Mystic Pearl for Haggas
and Marquand. This daughter of Invincible Spirit ran a lovely race over this
C&D last month. She had a couple of below average runs in G2 company over
in Dubai in the early part of the year but she should be a lot more at home in
handicap company.
In that race here last time out she finished close up in
third off 97. Tom Marquand didn’t exactly throw the kitchen sink at her in the
closing stages and it looked to my eye like she finished with a fair bit left
in the tank. If it was a sighter for this race, it couldn’t have worked out
much better with the handicapper leaving her mark alone. On her Sandown Listed
win last July she should be capable of winning off her current rating so at
28/1, Mystic Pearl is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Mystic Pearl e/w @ 28/1 (5 places) NAP
6.15 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)
We may as well swing for the fences here in this 27 runner
sprint. This race often throws up a big priced winner and I’m going to take a
punt on Calyxoh for Billy Loughnane and Jane Chapple-Hyam. By the hugely
promising sire Calyx, this lad has run twice, both over 6f.
He was reeled in close to home on debut on good ground at
Newmarket, losing out to Camera Shy by a head. Then, on softer ground at Leicester
he again showed plenty of speed before running out of petrol inside the last
furlong and fading into fourth.
On the evidence of those two runs, he looks well worth trying
over this minimum trip. His dam was second in a G2 on good to firm at Ascot so
I am hoping this ground will bring about a big improvement on his last effort.
Billy Loughnane will be on cloud nine after his win in the Coventry yesterday,
hopefully he can steer Calyxoh into the frame too at odds of 66/1.
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