A bit of respite at last. Go Daddy finished third for us at 33s and he was arguably a shade unlucky. Bellum Justum also placed at 20s. Things are looking up! We go again on Day 4, 2024 Royal Ascot Friday preview is below.
2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3)
Fairy Godmother is seemingly highly regarded in Ballydoyle
and she is the 7/4 fav. She was beaten on debut decisively by Sparkling Sea but
she turned that 2.5L deficit on yielding ground into a neck win on better ground
at Naas.
In that Naas race California Dreamer was back in third for
Adrian Murray. The Westmeath man had a 150/1 winner at this meeting last year
and while this filly isn’t quite as big as that, she still looks a pretty generous price to me at odds of 18/1.
Maiden
She comes into this race as a maiden after two starts. Her
best effort came second time up in that Naas G3. David Egan sneaked up the inside
and he sent his partner to the front to go and win the race 2F out. A furlong out it
looked like she had it in the bag but in hindsight, he probably went too soon
and she was reeled in close to home by Fairy Godmother (and Sparkling Sea).
It was a very encouraging turf debut by the daughter of
Mehmas and she should be effective on the fast ground at Ascot. I think she’ll
be suited by a strongly run race over this trip and if David Egan is more
patient and times his challenge right, she could hit the frame at odds of 18/1.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: California Dreamer e/w @
18/1 (4 places)
3.05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)
Inisherin has been hammered into 9/4 for this 3yo Group 1.
Regular readers will know I put him up for the 2000 Guineas but it seems like
he is better over shorter. He was extremely impressive when hosing up on soft ground
at Haydock last time and he has run well over a mile on good to firm ground in
the past. I have to be honest, I saw him as potentially staying further than a
mile before the Guineas so if he has the speed for this on fast ground, he’s
some horse.
He isn’t any use to us at 9/4 though. Instead, I am going to
take a punt on the French raider, Classic Flower. She is drawn low, which has generally
been a negative in massive fields this week. However, in the Norfolk the first
two home were drawn in 4 & 2 so hopefully, there’ll be no bias in this
fifteen runner field.
Calyx
This French trained G2 winner is by Calyx, an up and coming
sire. She has a lot of experience for a horse of her age and this will be the
first time she has got nice ground this season. She won her G2 at Chantilly
last season on good to firm, beating the then 105 rated Dawn Charger into
second and the subsequent Temple Stakes third Seven Questions into third.
Her form figures on good/good to firm ground read 1113. She
ran well in a G3 last time, despite being in season, so I would expect a big
jolt of improvement on that effort. Mickael Barzalona rode when she had her
biggest win at Chantilly and he is back in the plate today. Classic Flower has
run well before over 7f so this stiff 6f could really suit her and at odds of 40/1,
she is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Classic Flower e/w @ 40/1 (4
places)
3.45 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1)
A race in which it is hard to see any of the bigger priced ones
making an impact. I was half tempted by Skellet but she is from the same family
as Skitter Scatter and she didn’t train on from 2yo to 3yo. See The Fire is another
one with 2yo form that might give her a squeak but it is alarming that Oisin
Murphy has jumped ship to ride Ramatuelle.
I am going to give this race a wide berth. No bet.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: No Bet
4.25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2)
Mullins and Moore teamed up to win with Belloccio earlier
this week. They are hoping to repeat the trick with Ethical Diamond in this
handicap and the bookies make him the 11/4 fav. He beat a decent horse in Beechwood
when winning his maiden at Limerick and he ran a blinder on his handicap debut
over 10f at Leopardstown last month. He did get 5lbs for that near miss though so
he’ll need a big career best here.
At odds of 33/1, maybe Struth can go well for Charlie Johnston
and Richard Kingscote. Thirteen days ago at Haydock this 4yo son of Australia
bounced back to form after a couple of poor runs. He was only beat 0.75L in that
valuable 12f race by Iron Lion and he gets in off the same rating today.
While Between Drinks
It has been a while between drinks for this horse. His last
win came on his seasonal reappearance last year, a 12f handicap at Chester off
86. Since then he has run some big races without getting his head in front,
including at this track.
This gelding has run here on four occasions. He flopped over
C&D in the King George V Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year but in July
he was beat just 1.75L off 95. Then, in August he was beat a head off 94, the
same mark he races off today. He lost a shoe when fourth in the Lavazza Stakes on his last visit to this track.
Richard Kingscote has finished third all three times he has
ridden Struth, another third would do us tomorrow. At odds of 33/1, Struth is the
e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Struth e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
5.05 – Sandringham Stakes (Class 2)
So far this week it has looked like a low draw has been a big
negative in massive fields on the straight course. That has to be a huge worry
for those who have backed Indelible into the 9/2 fav. She is clearly a talented
horse but that draw in stall 4, and the fact she is unproven on fast ground, has
to be a concern for fav backers.
One horse who won’t have any concerns about the draw is Bellarchi.
This filly is trained by Grant Tuer, a man who knows how to win a handicap. This
filly has landed a nice draw in stall 26 and she will enjoy this ground.
C&D Form
Tuer’s filly has won two of her last three starts in
handicap company. Her last win came over this C&D off 87 on good ground
when she beat a nice horse of Ed Walker’s by 0.75L. If she was mine, I’d have
targeted this race immediately after that win and the way she has been campaigned
since suggests that Tuer has done exactly that.
Bellarchi’s last two runs have come in Listed company. She
wasn’t disgraced when beat 4.75L at York six days after her Ascot win. Then,
two weeks later she ran in another Listed heat at Epsom. That was a poor effort
but the good to soft ground and drop to 7f were probably not in her favour.
She now returns to the scene of her last handicap win off a
mark of 91. Brandon Wilkie, who has won on her before, is back in the plate and
with his 5lbs claim, she’ll be carrying a lovely racing weight. It looked like
she won with a fair bit in hand here last month, hopefully the return to this
venue sparks her back to that sort of form. At 50/1, Bellarchi is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Bellarchi e/w @ 50/1 (6
places)
5.40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)
We backed Mondo Man in the Prix du Jockey Club a few weeks ago.
He absolutely flew home down the outside that day over 10f and I think this
step up to 12f is really going to suit the son of Mondialiste. William Buick
keeps the faith on P&J Brandt’s charge and odds of 16/1 about the French
raider look far too big now he drops back down into G2 company.
He’s the type of horse that could well be suited by a
strongly run race. In France, they often dawdle before sprinting in the closing
stages and that is probably why this horse has only won one of his five starts.
Mondo Man finished a neck behind Ghostwriter at Chantilly. He
was fourth in the 2000 Guineas and is rated 112. Mondo Man has been handed a rating
of 111 on the back of that run so he is joint top rated with Diego Velazquez, yet he is 4x his price. At odds of 16/1, he has to be worth backing e/w.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4
places)
6.15 – Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (Class 2)
From a favourable draw in stall 25, I think Got To Love A
Grey could make a bold bid. Karl Burke’s daughter of Dark Angel has been
running in stakes company this season and she has yet to encounter quick
ground. She gets in off a mark of 97 for her handicap debut and a couple of snippets
of her form suggest she could be fairly treated.
She beat Classic Flower (our bet in the Commonwealth) by
1.5L on good to soft ground at Chantilly back in March. That was her second win
at Listed level. Last season, she made all to win a similar race at York,
beating her stablemate Dorothy Lawrence into second. That was on good to firm ground
and it was good ground for her next start in the Queen Mary over this C&D.
Queen Mary Run
Drawn in stall 15 that day, she tried to make all and she
ended up finishing a very creditable fifth, beat 4.5L for the win. Just in
front of her was subsequent G3 winner Juniper Berries in fourth. In third was
future Listed winner Beautiful Diamond (rated 103) and the winner is rated 108.
That run suggests that there might be a little bit of
wriggle room off her mark of 97. Sam James usually rides and he is back on board
again. 5F is her best trip, her two best runs have come on good/good to firm
and she is well drawn. Chances are, something will probably come and do her
late but at 40/1, it is worth chancing that she hangs on for a place.
2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Got To Love A Grey e/w @ 40/1
(6 places)
No comments:
Post a Comment