Ascot wasn’t a complete disaster but it could have been a lot better. Brian nicked the e/w money at 33s in the Chesham and Swingalong was just touched off for us as the NB at 14/1. The places keep things ticking over but we are due a winner. Hopefully it happens this weekend. I’m just putting a couple up for Saturday, I’ll be previewing every race at the Curragh on Sunday for TXMarkets.
1.15 Curragh – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)
These are always risky races to get involved in but I can never
resist backing a 66/1 poke for whom a decent case can be made on pedigree. David
Marnane has already had a 2yo winner this season with Yoshi, who ran a cracking
race in the Windsor Castle last week. He is well able to ready one first time
up and I am hoping that Ja’marr can do himself justice on his debut in this 7f
maiden.
He is by Zoustar, a top sire in Australia who, in my
opinion, has been underutilised in this part of the world. His winners to
runners strike rate with 2yos is a respectable 31/116 (27%) but what makes this
colt of more interest is the dam side of his pedigree.
His dam, Butterfly Kiss, is by Medaglia d’Oro. She has
already produced a 7f winner (3yo) and while she was unraced herself, she is
out of a dam called Laughing Lashes. She won the Debutante Stakes over this
C&D on yielding ground back in 2010.
Even more interestingly, she made her racecourse debut on
quick ground in the fillies’ maiden on this card fourteen years ago. Trained by
Jessie Harrington, she was sent off at odds of 16/1 and she just failed to get
up to beat Wild Wind. She had to settle for second, a short head behind the winner.
Can Ja’marr follow in her hoofsteps? Well, the booking of
Luke McAteer is a plus. He has ridden 27 2yos for Marnane, winning on three and
finishing in the first four another twelve times. That’s a frame hitting strike
rate of over 55% so hopefully, he can steer Ja’marr into the frame on Saturday.
This is definitely one for small stakes because you just
never know how backward or forward these debutants are. However, at odds of
66/1 a small e/w bet is surely warranted.
Curragh Saturday Tip: Ja’marr e/w @ 66/1
2.35 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase Handicap (Class 2)
Nothing is really taking my fancy in the Northumberland Plate
but there’s one in the consolation race that might outrun his odds of 16/1.
Pons Aelius ran poorly over 14f at Catterick last time out but there was more encouragement
to take from his previous outing there over today’s trip of 16f. He was only beaten
1.75L by Animato off a rating of 69 and it marked a welcome return to form
after a long spell in the doldrums.
His last previous decent effort came over this C&D last November.
He finished 2.75L fourth behind Aqwaam off a mark of 78, just fading in the
last half a furlong. That wasn’t his first good run around Newcastle. In June
2022, he ran into second over 12f off a mark of 75, beat just over a length for
the win.
Today, Pons Aelius rocks up with an official rating of 68.
That’s 10lbs lower than he was last November. Now, it must be said that his
mark has dropped for a reason and this is a better class of race than he has
been running in recently. However, he has won in class 2 company before and
that was off a mark of 80 at Kempton a couple of years ago.
Charlie Johnston has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride. He
is 7/33 for the yard and he has finished in the first four on another thirteen
occasions (60% frame hitting strike rate). Pons Aelius has a decent draw in
stall 6, hopefully he can make a bold bid at odds of 16/1.
Saturday Newcastle Tip: Pons Aelius e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
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