I am glad we kept the powder dry on Saturday. I like the look of a filly in the Prix De Diane Longines tomorrow and I think she might outrun her odds of 40/1. Our last French fancy, Mondo Man, ran a cracker for us in the French Derby. Hopefully this filly can go one place better and land the each way money on Sunday.
Survie is a daughter of Churchill who is trained by Arc winning handler Nicolas Clement. Her Le Havre dam Sotteville was pretty decent and her three best runs in stakes company (including a Listed win) all came on quick ground.
Her sire won the Guineas on good to firm and so far, his winner to runners strike rate on quick ground is 28%, compared to 13% on heavy and 15% on soft. It is good to firm at Chantilly tomorrow and I think that is what this filly wants.
Bottomless
Survie ran twice as a two year old with both runs coming
on the all weather. Those races were of average quality and she didn’t win
either by much, but she won them in very cosy fashion. Clement stepped her markedly
up in class on her seasonal return at Longchamp (9f hvy) and she ran a very
nice race in that Group 3, meeting trouble in running and staying on nicely
under tender handling for third on bottomless ground.
She finished 6L behind Dare To Dream in that contest but when upped in trip to 10f on much better ground in a Longchamp G2 (gd/fm), she turned the form around.
This time, she was again given a very easy time by Stephane Pasquier and
just like on her previous start, she ran on strongly close to home to finish third, just
1.5L behind Birthe and nearly 2l in front of Dare To Dream. Incidentally, War
Chimes was back in fifth and she ran third in the Oaks on her next outing.
How Big Is Her Engine?
In my opinion, this horse has yet to be asked for her true
maximum effort. She’s only been tapped with the whip four or five times total
in her four races to date and she still looked a touch green in the final furlong at
Longchamp last time. Given that this is a Group 1, surely Stephane Pasquier
will finally try to find out how big an engine she truly has.
Maybe she’ll come up short, but the form of her last run looks
ok to me. She should relish the ground, she stays the trip so at odds of 40/1, it is worth chancing Survie e/w.
2024 Prix de Diane Longines Tip: Survie e/w @ 40/1 (4
places)
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