When faced with times of trouble some say it is best to focus on the positives. That won’t take us too long. Another day, another blank. Ropey Guest, Betty Clover and Calyxoh had more horses behind them than in front of them at the finish but again, a place evaded us. At least things can’t get any worse, I suppose. My 2024 Royal Ascot Thursday preview is below.
2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)
A 5f Group 2 for the juveniles kicks off Day 3 of the Royal
Meeting. Whistlejacket heads the betting for O’Brien and Moore. Ballydoyle fired
in a double on Wednesday and this horse was very impressive when landing a
listed contest at the Curragh last time out. However, both his runs to date
came on testing ground and conditions couldn’t be much more different today. That being
said, his full brother Little Big Bear won on good to firm so he may well
handle it.
The fact remains that we don’t know for sure if he’ll go on the
ground and that is off putting with a horse as short as he is. Another soft
ground winner in this field is the Karl Burke trained Milford. This Kodiac colt
looked very promising when hacking up on debut at Hamilton. How strong was the
race? Not very, but he was sent off at just 6/5 and he won in the manner of a
very good horse.
Given his pedigree, I would expect him to be even more at
home on this fast ground. I’ve looked back at the form of multiple horses bred
along the same lines (Kodiac x Shamardal dam) and almost every one I checked
liked fast conditions. Burke has already had a juvenile winner and if the money
comes for this lad, it could be telling. At odds of 18/1, Milford is the e/w
selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Milford e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)
3.05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
This contest should be run at a very strong pace. There’s a
heap of pace angles in it and I am going to bank on it setting up for a hold up
horse. The one I have come down on is Go Daddy. Trained by Grassick and Muir,
this son of Smooth Daddy will be partnered by Lewis Edmunds. He’s run twice
this season and he shaped much better on his second start at Newbury in the
London Gold Cup.
In that contest he was dropped out early and he travelled
into the race well. He got slightly hampered in the last furlong or so but he
ran on pretty well for seventh. Ok, he was almost 8L behind the winner King’s
Gambit but he was only 2L behind Persica, 3.5L behind Chantilly and 3.75L
behind Poniros, all of whom reoppose here.
Go Daddy was running off 89 that day, he’s now been dropped
to 87. He is now 11lbs better off with Persica, 5lbs better off with Chantilly
and 6lbs better off with Poniros. Those three are significantly shorter in the
betting here than Go Daddy and given the relatively small distances between
them, surely Go Daddy is the e/w value here at 33/1. He’s a half brother to a 14f
winner so hopefully the step up to 12f will suit.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Go Daddy e/w @ 33/1 (5
places)
3.45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
A race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden
in recent seasons. Gosden is triple handed this year and Aidan runs two but the
favourite is trained by Charlie Appleby, a handler who has yet to taste success
in this contest.
Diamond Rain is just 13/8 to extend her unbeaten sequence to
three. She won her novice here on debut over 8f (gd/sft) and then added a 10f
Newbury Listed race in fine fashion on her second start. Will she stay 12f? Her
dam won the Oaks so she probably will and she wasn’t stopping at the finish at
Newbury.
The value probably lies with one of the three Gosden horses
but I just can’t really make a genuine case for them. The percentage call is to
leave this race alone. No bet.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: No Bet
4.25 – Gold Cup (Group 1)
The class act in this race is Kyprios. Aidan O’Brien’s star
stayer won this in 2022 and he is back to try and regain his crown two years later.
Now a 6yo, the 117 rated son of Galileo has won his last two starts over 14f in
Listed and G3 company and he’ll be hoping to take revenge on Trawlerman, his
conqueror here over 16f in the Champions Long Distance Cup back in October.
Trawlerman was last sighted finishing behind Tower Of London
in Meydan three months ago. He will relish this quick ground and he looks a threat.
So does Coltrane. It feels like he’s been around for donkey’s years but he is
still just a 7yo. He likes it here and he usually goes out on his shield.
The one I am backing is Caius Chorister. She is a gutsy mare
and David Menuisier deserves to land a big one after some excellent runs at the
highest level in recent weeks. This trip is a new test for the daughter of
Golden Horn but it looks well worth trying.
Menuisier’s charge already has form in the book with
Coltrane and Sweet William, both of whom beat her by a head over 16f this season
on easy ground. Caius Chorister has done most her winning on good to firm
ground so she’ll enjoy the conditions and she’s 3lbs better off with both
Coltrane and Sweet William. The fav will probably be hard to beat but with odds
of 20/1 available, it is worth taking a chance that Caius Chorister can run into
a place.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Caius Chorister e/w @ 20/1
5.05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
I can’t believe I am tipping up another horse that will be
ridden by Jim Crowley but desperate times require desperate measures and all
that. Whip Cracker is a horse we have previous with. We backed him on his third
start in a Listed race at Newmarket and he ran a blinder to finish second, 3.25L
behind Jayarebe, a 9/1 shot for the G3 Hampton Court.
A short head behind Whip Cracker in that 9f heat was Caviar
Heights, now rated 109. In fourth was Ambiente Friendly, now rated 117 after finishing
second in the Derby. Not bad form, is it. Whip Cracker ran again two weeks
later upped to 10f in another Listed race at Newmarket. He was too keen and
weakened so I’m not surprised Hughes has decided to come back in trip.
Usually I swerve handicap debutants but this horse has already
run in a decent sized field in a Listed race so I am making an exception. He
has a favoured high draw, his best run suggests that a mark of 101 could be workable
and he has form on quickish ground. At odds of 28/1, Whip Cracker is the e/w
selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 28/1 (4
places 1/4)
5.40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 2)
Oisin Murphy is in rare form at the moment and he could get
a good spin on Bellum Justum here. This horse first caught my eye when I was putting
Inisherin up for the Guineas. He beat Kevin Ryan’s charge (now fav for the Commonwealth
Cup) in that 8f maiden on good to firm ground and I was keen to see how he got
on when stepped up to Listed company on his return at Epsom.
The son of Sea The Stars duly went and won that race, beating
Chief Little Rock into third. He went out and won a G3 next time out and is
12/1 for the King Edward on Friday. Andrew Balding decided to head back to
Epsom for the big one and while he ran respectably, Bellum Justum looked like
he didn’t stay on the rain softened ground and he weakened into seventh.
The return to 10F is a big plus for this colt and the good
to firm ground will suit him better than the good to soft at Epsom. I was
surprised to see him as big as 20/1 when I had a look at the odds this evening
and at that price, he has to be worth chancing e/w.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Bellum Justum e/w @ 20/1
6.15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
We backed Greatgadian for the AW Champs Mile final at
Newcastle back in March. He ran a shocker that day but he has been freshened up
and that, combined with his form on fast ground at Ascot, has convinced me to go
in on him for small stakes again.
This son of Siyouni has a decent record when fresh. When he
is returning from breaks of 59 days or more, he has career form figures of
25141. All his most recent form is on artificial surfaces but he has run some
more than decent races in turf handicaps, including at this meeting.
Two years ago he ran a nice enough race to be beat 7L in the
Hunt Cup here over a mile off 102. A couple of months later he ran a blinder to
finish 1.75L behind Jungle Cove here, again over a mile, off a mark of 101. His
only run at Ascot over 7f came all the way back in 2020 on his debut and he again
ran well, finishing third beat 4L.
Course Form
Overall, his career form figures at Ascot read 3/11/3/2/15
so he has run well there more often than not. He is also going to be racing off
an effective mark of 89 with Aidan Keeley’s claim, so he’ll be 13lbs lower than
he was in the 2022 Hunt Cup and 12lbs lower than when placed twice later on in
2022.
He wasn’t fresh when running in handicaps here at the last
two meetings so hopefully, the decision to give him an 83 day break pays dividends.
The way this week has gone so far, keep stakes small, but at 66/1 I think
Greatgadian could outrun those odds.
2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Greatgadian e/w @ 66/1 (6
places)
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