Tuesday 6 September 2016

Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 1

Quiet Reflection made no mistake on Saturday and, as the saying goes, 'I love it when a plan comes together'. She travelled supremely well and when Dougie pushed the button a furlong out she put the race to bed in an instant.

It could be argued that The Tin Man was unlucky as he blew the start, but the start is as much a part of the race as the finish, so in reality his connections can have no complaints. The best horse definitely won on the day. It was a pity Gordon Lord Byron ran so poorly, and maybe old Father time has finally caught up with the veteran sprinter.

Tomorrow is the start of the St Leger festival at Doncaster, and as I have a bit of time on my hands I have decided to go through the card. A couple of races don't appeal as betting heats, but I do fancy a few. Below are my thoughts on Day 1 of what should be a cracking few days of racing.

RACE 1

I really fancied Dream Of Dreams to run a huge race last time in the Gimcrack at York. However, he was pulled up sharply before the race had begun in earnest and, though he was reportedly none the worse for his ordeal, I just can't go back in again at just 11/4.

The one I think is overpriced here is the Mark Johnston trained colt Town Charter, a son of Lonhro that ran out an easy winner his sole start on good to soft ground. He is rated 88 after three starts, and that gives him an awful lot to find with the top rated Dream Of Dreams, who is rated 102.

However, this colt was very impressive his only start on easy ground, and the current ground description at Doncaster is good to soft. The top two have shown their best form on a firm surface, and the same applies to the other Johnston runner Jacquard. De Sousa has been booked and he is 4/13 on 2yos for Johnston this season. 8/1 looks too big and if Dream Of Dreams has another off day, he could be the one to capitalise.

STEVOS' SELECTION: TOWN CHARTER 8/1 E/W

RACE 2

This class 2 nursery handicap looks a competitive little heat, and Ontoawinner's Our Charlie Brown is sure to be popular after his mightily impressive win last time. The form of that run has been franked, and his 9lb raise looks more than justified. He is now off a rating of 71, and judging by the authority of his win last time that should be well within his compass. However, it was only a class 6 contest the last day, and this represents a huge step up in class.

The ground will be different too, although his pedigree offers hope that he should handle an ease just fine. His sire American Post is not a stallion I am overly familiar with, but he does have a decent  strike rate on easy ground and he won on good to soft himself. Andok looks the biggest danger, though the other Easterby entry should not be discounted either. They could struggle to concede weight to Our Charlie Brown though, and at odds of 5/1 he is a confident selection.

STEVOS' SELECTION: OUR CHARLIE BROWN 5/1 (NAP)

RACE 3

On the figures this looks between the top three in the market, and if the handicapper is right they should finish a fair distance ahead of the rest. However, the top two have to carry top weight of 9-13, and Thesme gets 5lb from both of those horses, even though she is rated just 1lb less. However, the one I like at a huge price is the Robert Cowell trained speedster Iffranesia, who drops back down to listed level after a couple of runs in group 1 contests.

This 6yo has been a super horse for connections since arriving from France, and she has won 8 races since her first win off a mark of just 50 in a class 7 handicap at Kempton. She has risen through the handicap ranks, and she tasted success at pattern level for the first time in a listed heat at Chantilly on her final run of last season (5.5f gd/sft). She has been very highly tried for the most part this season, and she ran a cracker to be 2nd in a group 2 back at Chantilly in June.

She was well beaten on her next two starts at Group level, but she should be well suited by the drop in class tomorrow. She has a course and distance win to her name, she won't mind what the weather does, and she is trained by a man who has a midas touch with sprinters. She looks too big a price at 25/1, and she is the each way suggestion in what should be a cracking race.

STEVOS' SELECTION: IFFRANESIA E/W 25/1

RACE 4

This legend's race is not one to get heavily involved in and it is one to watch and enjoy.

RACE 5

Once again I have no strong fancy for this race unfortunately. Nothing looks criminally overpriced and with only 6 going to post there is no real each way angle.

RACE 6

Yet another small field, and it doesn't appeal as a betting heat.

RACE 7

Thorntoun Lady is a horse I have been keeping a close eye on this season, and I must confess that I backed her last time out at Haydock. Young Joe Doyle endured a troubled passage on the Jim Goldie trained mare, and the 6yo daughter of Henrythenavigator would have been a lot closer than the 3.5L she finished behind the winner with a clear run.

That effort came off a mark of 71, and the handicapper has generously dropped her to 69 after that fine effort. She won by nearly 3L the last time she raced off such a low rating (Haydock 5f gd/fm) and she ran arguably even better there last September when 2nd off 75, beaten just a length. However, she is 2lb out of the handicap here, so she races off the same mark as last time (71).

Two of her first three starts came here on good/good to firm and she ran well on both occasions. She didn't run well here back in August off 76, but that was a class 3 and she will be much more at home in this class 4 contest. Paul Hanagan replaces Doyle in the saddle, and he has won 6 and been placed on 24 of his 99 rides for Goldie. Hopefully he can add win number 7 on his 100th ride for the shrewd trainer at Doncaster tomorrow.

STEVOS' SELECTION: THORNTOUN LADY E/W 14/1 (NB)


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