2024 Cheltenham Sunday Preview

We have already backed Churchstonewarrior for the Troytown, read why here. I also have one for the Greatwood tomorrow. Each way singles and an e/w double advised.

3.30 Cheltenham – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier)

All the talk in the lead up to this race has been about Dysart Enos. I have heard some pundits say she is the best handicapped horse in training, which might well be true, but as regular readers of the blog will know, I am not a fan of backing horses on their handicap debuts.

This mare has had just three starts over hurdles and they came in novice hurdles. In those races, probably at least 75% of her rivals were only out for a spin to get a mark, whereas in this ultra-competitive sixteen runner handicap, a lot more horses will be there to do their best.

Her lack of experience in races like this has to rate as a big negative and she also lacks a run. Now, on  a literal reading of her bumper win when beating Golden Ace would suggest a mark of 131 is generous, but whether she will be able to exploit it today is another question altogether.

Battle Hardened

The one I am going to back has already won a similarly competitive, big field handicap and we were on him at a nice price when he won it. Cracking Rhapsody, trained up in Scotland by Ewan Whillans, landed the Morebattle at Kelso in March off a mark of 119. He absolutely hosed up and he then followed that up with a sterling effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr, beat a length off 128.

He made his return to action at Hexham in a Mickey Mouse handicap early last month and he shaped well in a race that wasn’t run to suit. He is suited by big fields and a proper gallop, and he should get both of those things today. Craig Nichol knows him well, he has already placed in a hot handicap off just 1lb lower than he is here and the ground should be fine for him. At odds of 22/1, back Cracking Rhapsody e/w.

2024 Cheltenham & Navan Sunday Tip: Cracking Rhapsody e/w @ 22/1 (5 places) NB

Also: Cracking Rhapsody 22s & Churchstonewarrior 14s e/w double (both 5 places)

Warrior Can Strike In The Troytown

This Sunday at Navan we have one of the first major staying handicap chases of the season. The Troytown Chase is a race that Gordon Elliott likes to target and he has won it six times since 2014. Last year he had four of the first five finishers, including the 20/1 winner, Coko Beach.

This year, Elliott is responsible for twelve of the remaining 25 entries and all the talk has been about American Mike, who has been put in as the 5/1 ante-post favourite. A Grade 2 novice chase winner over C&D on heavy in February, his best form is on testing ground and he won’t be getting those conditions on Sunday, if the weather forecast is correct.

The one I have come down on is another C&D winner but unlike the fav, his peak efforts have come on ground with good in the description. Churchstonewarrior will be having his third start for Cian Collins on Sunday. He shaped ok on his stable debut at Tramore after a break and he then ran a lovely race on soft ground when fourth behind Flooring Porter in the Kerry National at Listowel in September.

Yes, he was beaten 20l behind the runaway winner but he got hampered at the tenth fence and he finished well ahead of the likes of Zanahiyr and Perceval Legallois, both of whom could re-oppose here. I thought it was a very pleasing effort considering the underfoot conditions and he’ll be much better suited by the sounder surface on Sunday.

When he won his Grade 2 novice here in 2023 it was on good to yielding ground, the same type of ground on which he won his novice hurdle. In that Grade 2 Chase he beat Mahler Mission by 0.75l off level weights and he is now rated 155, Churchstonewarrior runs off 146 here. Since then, he hasn’t hit the same heights but in his defence, he’s only had his favoured ground once and that was for his Kerry National prep run.

I am hoping that returning to the scene of his career best performance and the prospect of nice ground will enable this son of Mahler to get his head back in front. He should be fully fit now after two runs for Cian Collins and given that he has won here before, this may have always been the aim. Once the rain stays away, Churchstonewarrior is capable of running a massive race and he is worth backing e/w at odds of 16/1.

2024 Troytown Chase Tip: Churchstonewarrior e/w @ 16/1 NAP (1/4 odds, 4 places)

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip

The race that stops a nation and also the race I can never seem to get right. I think I have managed one place in the last five years but God loves a trier, as the saying goes, se we’ll do just that and try again.

The one that will have to carry the double penalty of the Stevos’ shilling this year is the former Andrew Balding inmate, Saint George. Now trained Down Under by Ciaron Maher, this 4yo grey son of Roaring Lion was good enough to place second in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase last year when trained by Balding. He found just Gregory too good by 0.5l and that horse hasn’t been beaten far in some top staying races this season.

He got to within 4.25l of Kyprios when third in the Goodwood Cup (a head behind Sweet William). At York in the G2 Lonsdale Cup he was 3l behind the fav for this race, Vauban, off level weights. So, on a line through Gregory, Saint George looks weighted to beat that rival getting 12lbs from him.

Two Fine Efforts

This lad has had three runs since moving to Australia and two of them have been fine efforts. On his Aussie debut he was beaten just half a length in a G3 handicap at Caulfield over 10f. He just lacked the pace to get up in the final furlong but he kept on well and it was a very encouraging effort considering it was his first run for over a year.

Two weeks later he didn’t run to his best at Flemington upped to 12f but the ground was good to soft and this horse is best on good or quicker. Even so, he seemed to handle the track well and despite finishing ninth, he was beaten just over 4l for the win.

Last time out in the Moonee Valley Cup it was much more like it. Dropped out early, his jockey was in no hurry to put him into the race. With just 200m to go he was still last and seemingly going nowhere but once his rider got stuck into him, with less than 100m to go, he picked up really well and finished off very strongly for fifth.

He finished just 3l behind Okita Sushi and he is 2lb better off with that rival now. He was 0.5l behind Sharp And Smart and I think he can turn that form around over this longer trip. Going up to two miles should really suit this fella and his dam is by Galileo, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue.

I am not too familiar with his jockey, Tyler Schiller, but he has ridden three winners in the last fortnight so he won’t be lacking in confidence. With no rain forecast, Saint George should get his favoured underfoot conditions and with five places on offer, he is worth chancing each way at odds of 25/1.

2024 Melbourne Cup Tip: Saint George e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

One For Friday At Cheltenham

After a torrid couple of weeks on the flat, I am glad to have some jumping action to get stuck into this weekend. First of all, Famed Again was far too keen early on at the Curragh on Tuesday. My hope was that she might settle better in the hood but she didn’t and there’s also a chance that the run may have come to soon after her big run at Naas. I still think she’ll win plenty of races.

The one I am interested in at Cheltenham on Friday goes in the amateur riders’ handicap at 3.35. I am hoping that Wick Green, trained by Ben Pauling, has been aimed this race. The 11yo son of Sagamix was a fine third in this last year, beaten just 1.5L off a mark of 121. A month later, he was fourth over 3m1f back here, beaten 5.75l off 122.

He then came back for a X-Country handicap chase in December and while he only finished eighth, he was running from 12lb out of the handicap so to be beaten 13 odd lengths wasn’t a bad effort. Subsequent to that run the 11yo ran below par races at Wincanton and Southwell in February and March and he was poor again in two runs after a 143 day break at Worcester in July/August.

However, the old boy shaped much better after another short break three weeks ago. He finished third of six, 6.5L behind Musical Slave at Fontwell (26f, gd/sft). That came off 117 and the handicapper has dropped him another 2lb to 115.

That means he is now 8lb lower than when beaten 1.5l in this last year and 2lb below his last winning mark. His rider has yet to win a race under rules but after doing some digging he has ridden winners in point to points so he isn’t totally inexperienced. Good ground will suit, he has run two of the best races of his life at this venue and the first time visor might bring back some spark so at odds of 33/1, an each way bet is advised.

Cheltenham Friday Tip: 3.35 – Wick Green e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

Famed Too Big At The Curragh

It was a bad day for us on Saturday at Ascot. Sweet William landed the e/w NB place money but apart from that, it was a day to forget. It is rare that I tip up horses in midweek on this blog but I am making an exception this week. There is a Group 3 race for 2yo fillies at the Curragh tomorrow and a couple look a touch overpriced to my eye.

First of all, Tamam Desert looks big at 22/1. After shaping with huge potential on her debut at Leopardstown, she confirmed that promise by winning at the Galway Festival. She still looked pretty green that day but she ran on well to just get up in that 7f heat and on that evidence, and on her breeding, this step up to a mile looks certain to suit.

She should go well but at an even bigger price, Famed Again is very interesting. Trained by Tom Cooper, who is better known for his exploits in the National Hunt sphere, this filly finished third behind Tamam Desert in that Galway maiden. She was only 1.75l behind that rival and she didn’t get as clear a run so she is more than capable of closing that gap.

However, the run that really caught my eye was her effort in the valuable 7f Auction race at Naas won by another of today’s rivals, Fiona Maccoul. Draw in stall 2, Ronan Whelan bustled her up the inside to get a decent early position. However, once she got into that position she began to race extremely keenly, fighting her jockey for the guts of a furlong and a half.

Despite those early antics, she kept on really well late on and she just failed to get third. At the line she was just over a length behind the winner, to whom she was conceding 4lbs, and a half a length behind her in fifth was Sigh No More, a Group 3 winner at Leopardstown on her next start. She was getting 6lbs from that rival but even so, it was an excellent effort.

On pedigree there’s a good chance a mile will suit and her effort at Galway suggested it would pose no problems too. Cooper now applies the hood, which will hopefully help her to settle better, and the quiet hands of Colin Keane could be a big help in that department too.

The assessor has rated her 78 and I think he could be wrong. I think she deserves to be rated at least in the mid-80s on the back of her last two runs and the fact that Cooper is running here instead of going for a nursery suggests that he might think the same. 

Keane is 1/9 with another five top four finishes when riding for the yard (66% frame hitting strike rate) so at odds of 66/1, surely Famed Again is worth throwing a few pennies at each way. Hopefully she can nick some precious black type. 

Stevos’ Selection: Famed Again e/w @ 66/1

2024 Champions Day – Soft Ground E/W Lucky 15

At the time of writing, it looks like soft ground is a certainty for Champions Day on Saturday. We have already backed Moss Tucker e/w at 66/1 for the Sprint, you can read why here. Obviously, he’ll be one of the selections for our soft ground e/w lucky 15, find out who else is getting the nod below.

2.35 – Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes

The one that interests me at a big price here is the exceptionally well bred filly Doha. Trained by Ralph Beckett, whose horses are in red hot form, this 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars is out of Treve, a two time Arc winner that handled soft ground. She has yet to hit the heights of her extremely talented mum but she is an improving filly and she is unexposed at this 1m4f trip on testing ground.

She has managed to win three of her eight turf starts, including the Kensington Palace here at the Royal Meeting over 1m on fast ground. Yes, that was only a handicap but she has run very well in three of her four starts in stakes company, culminating in a comfortable Listed win at Saint-Cloud on her latest start earlier this month.

She ran through the line strong in that 10f contest on very soft ground and on that evidence, this 1m4f trip looks well worth a try. On her penultimate start, over 8f on good ground in a Sandown G3 she found only Tamfana too good by 2.75l and she was conceding 6lb to the subsequent Sun Chariot winner who is now rated 118. That form looks alright to me, she has form figures of 1122 on soft ground and if this trip ekes out a bit more improvement, she could sneak into the frame here at odds of 33/1.

2024 Champions Fillies And Mares Stakes Tip: Doha e/w @ 33/1

3.15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Charyn is a really likeable colt and he is going to be hard to beat here. However, like Tamfana, he’ll be having his seventh run of the season so there is a chance that they might be vulnerable to a fresher horse.

The one that looks most overpriced to me back on soft ground is the Roger Teal trained Dancing Gemini. He’s had just four runs this season and his best run, by far, came in the French 2000 Guineas on his first run back. He finished off his race powerfully for second, half a length behind Metropolitan who is an 8/1 shot here.

Since then, Metropolitan has run crackers in a pair of 8f G1s here and at Deauville, whereas things have not gone as smoothly for Dancing Gemini. Teal was convinced he’d stay further than a mile, but he doesn’t. He ran a creditable race in the Epsom Derby to finish sixth, but he faded late on. Even 10f proved too much of a stretch on his penultimate start at Sandown.

Last time out, Dancing Gemini ran in a Goodwood G3 back at a mile but I don’t think he was in love with the good to firm ground. He’s been given a 78 day break since, so he should be nice and fresh for this first run at a mile on soft ground since the French Guineas. He is 5x the price of Metropolitan, with whom he has just half a length to find on that Longchamp form. If he can repeat that run, Dancing Gemini can outrun his odds of 40/1.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Tip: Dancing Gemini e/w @ 40/1

4.35 – Balmoral Handicap

The final leg of our soft ground e/w lucky 15 is going to be Star Of Orion. Trained by the in form Eve Johnson Houghton, this son of Footstepsinthesand is a very consistent animal. Yes, he has only won three of his thirty two starts but he has finished second or third on thirteen occasions and since 2023, he has finished out of the first four just three times in fourteen starts.

His last win came off 91 on good to soft ground at Newmarket in July 2023. Since then he has hit the frame off 97 here over 7f, twice at Sandown off 96 and he was far from disgraced finishing seventh off that mark over 7f back here again earlier this month.

The 6yo has some solid form at this track. He has been beaten less than a length twice in big field 7f handicaps off 94 and 95 and he was beaten a short head off 97 here over 7f back in 2021. Is he well handicapped off 96? Probably not, but he has shown on multiple occasions he can be competitive off this kind of mark and at the prices we are playing at, a place will do.

He has yet to win over a mile or on soft ground but he has run some huge races in defeat. A year ago at York he was beaten 1.25L off 95 on soft ground over 1m at York and at Newmarket earlier this season, he was beaten 0.5l on good ground at 8f off 94. If he can finish as close to the winner here, it’ll hopefully be enough to get the place so at 33/1, Star Of Orion is the e/w selection.

2024 Balmoral Handicap Selection: Star Of Orion e/w @ 33/1 (4 places 1/4 odds)

So, these are our four legs for our Champions Day Soft Ground e/w Lucky 15:

Champions Sprint: Moss Tucker @ 50/1

Champions Fillies And Mares: Doha @ 33/1

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: Dancing Gemini @ 40/1

Balmoral Handicap: Star Of Orion @ 33/1

-DaveStevos

Mossy Can Prosper In The Muck At Ascot

Last weekend, most of my selections got stuck in the mud at Newmarket and York. Conditions look like being equally as gruelling at Ascot for Champions Day and if it comes up soft or heavy, Moss Tucker can make his presence felt in the Sprint.

We have done well in this race in the past. Donjuan Triumphant won for us at 33s, Brando was beaten a nose at 80s and we also had Run To Freedom in 2022 when he finished second at 150/1. Moss Tucker is currently chalked up at 66/1 but he is capable of making a mockery of those odds if he gets his favoured underhoof conditions.

It looks like this son of Excelebration has been trained for a backend soft ground campaign. After looking better than ever on his seasonal return in April at Naas (5f, yielding), he then disappointed on good ground at the Curragh in May. He was left off for over three months after that run and he made his return in the Sprint Cup at Haydock.

Unfortunately, the ground was good that day, just as it was when he ran down the field in the Flying Five at the Currah. Two weeks ago he did get soft ground in the L’Abbaye at Longchamp but unfortunately, the draw gods conspired against him and he never figured.

He didn’t have a hard race that day and I believe 6f on testing ground on a track like Ascot should really suit him. His career form figure on soft to heavy/heavy read 1151 with the fifth coming when he probably needed the run on his seasonal comeback last year. One of the wins came over 6f at the Curragh, where he beat Big Gossey by almost 4l.

Moss Tucker is already a Group 1 winner over 5f, he’s won a Group 3 over 6f and he’s a triple Listed winner at 5f/6f. He’s been totally written off for this by the bookies and to be honest, that is understandable on the back of his last four runs.

However, as I pointed out earlier, he has had excuses for all of those efforts and I think we’ll see a much better version of Mossy at Ascot on Saturday. At odds of 66/1, he is worth backing each way. Fingers crossed for lots of rain!

2024 Champions Sprint Stakes Tip: Moss Tucker e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

Sun Could Shine At Longchamp

Unfortunately, Navagio decided to go to Haydock instead of the Cambridgeshire. I would imagine connections might regret the decision because looking at how powerfully he travelled, I think a fast run 9f on soft ground at Newmarket would have elicited a massive run and as it turned out, stall 13 would have been a great draw. However, the bottom line is that we did our money, but at least we managed to back the horse that beat him at Haydock.

This weekend it is all about one race. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. It is hard to believe it’ll be five years since we backed Waldgeist to win this race. We have managed to land a couple of nice places in more recent renewals, including Gold Trip at 50s in 2020 and Sealiway at 40s in 2021.

This year, I am backing a horse that I have had in mind for this race ever since he finished a staying on seventh in the Prix De Jockey Club back in June. Sunway, trained by David Menuisier, may have failed to get his head in front this season but he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest his odds of 66/1 are far too big.

We have already backed him this season, in the Irish Derby at 20s. He ran a massive race to finish second, staying on strongly in the last furlong to finish just 0.75l behind Los Angeles, who is as short as 6/1 for the Arc. Should Sunway be over 10x his price? On his next start in the King George he got hampered at a crucial moment but still ran with credit behind the easy winner Goliath.

Three weeks ago Sunway turned up in the St Leger. Yet again, he was a bit short of room but he ran on well to finish fourth, just 1.75l behind Jan Brueghel, a horse that is now one of the ante-post favourites for the Melbourne Cup.

The way this horse has been running this season reminds me a bit of Waldgeist the year he won this. He has been mostly thereabouts in all the right races and I think if things fall right for him, he is capable of going very close. Ballydoyle are likely to run at least one pacemaker so Sunway should get a solid pace to aim at and he goes on any ground, so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

His brother Sealiway stayed on well for fifth in this race in 2021 and I am hoping Sunway can go a couple of places better at least at odds of 66s. At the prices, he has to be worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Tip: Sunway e/w @ 66/1

-DaveStevos

Shark Attack At The Curragh

Flying Finn was our only winner on Saturday but she was a nice price at 20/1. Santa Savana really should have placed but got hampered at an inopportune moment. However, it was downhill after that. Unfortunately, Paddy The Squire ended up drawn on the wrong side. It would have been interesting to see how Navagio fared from stall 13, I’d imagine connections regret the decision to go to Haydock. I like one at the Curragh tomorrow at decent odds, you can see who I fancy below.

4.25 – Irish Cesarewitch Handicap (Premier)

With rain forecast tomorrow, the ground could be pretty testing by the time of this race. If it is, I think Enfranchise is capable of outrunning her odds of 33/1 for Shark Hanlon and Gavin Ryan.

This mare is very talented when she gets her optimum conditions. She likes a cut in the ground and she likes a trip and she should hopefully get both of those tomorrow (once the weather forecast is correct). Her form figures on the flat on soft/heavy ground read 221.

The last time this daughter of Invincible Spirit raced on properly testing ground was in a 14f listed heat at Gowran. Gavin Ryan, who is in the plate today, rode and she dotted up by 2l, beating Countess Of Tyrone. They meet again here and Enfranchise is 1lb better off so I’m not sure why she is 33/1 and the Twomey horse is only 20s.

In July this mare ran a blinder to finish fifth off 97 in the QR handicap at Galway on ground that was probably just on the lively side for her. She stayed on nicely and was 7l behind the winner at the line and she races off the same mark today.

I’d imagine her next two starts, over hurdles two days later at Galway and in a Listed heat there over 12f 19 days ago, were runs designed to keep her ticking over ahead of a shot at this race. I’m sure the Shark will be keen to go out with a bang with a big win before his ban kicks in, hopefully Enfranchise can deliver the goods for him at odds of 33/1.

Stevos’ Selection: Enfranchise e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) NAP

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip

Thank god for good old Commanche Falls. To be fair, Seven Questions ran a cracking race, as did Star Anthem. However, Li Ban wasn’t held up as I hoped and unsurprisingly faded late. It was a tough weekend of punting but at least we managed to avoid the dreaded blank with the NAP.

This weekend there is a quality Saturday card at Newmarket. The race I have my eye on for a little ante-post flutter is the Cambridgeshire Handicap and in the hope that the rain forecast for later this week materialises, I am throwing a few quid e/w at a 100/1 poke.

Back in March, Navagio had his first start for James Horton in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster (8f, sft). It was a UK baptism of fire for the son of Footstepsinthesand but he ran a massive race on the rain softened ground off a mark of 96.

Not once, not twice but three times he encountered traffic problems, so he did well to stay on for third, beaten 3.5l for the win by Mr Professor. Since then, however, he has failed to hit the same heights. He finished down the field at Newbury on his next start, he was then beaten 6l at Sandown in a mickey mouse handicap and after another nondescript effort at Newcastle, he was given a couple of months off.

On his return from that 71 day break he ran at Ascot (8f) and it looked like a sharpener for a bigger day. He was fresh early but he did run on well near the finish and I think the 9f at Newmarket will be right up his street. His last win, for Ray Cody in Ireland, came over that trip on soft at Gowran last year and he was giving 12lb to the 96 rated runner up.

After his last few runs, the handicapper has given Navagio a real chance. He is now down to a mark of 91, 5lb lower than he was for his fine run in the Lincoln. James Horton has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight, which is a plus, and though Navagio is also entered at Haydock this weekend, I am hoping Horton has been campaigning him with this race in mind.

His odds of 100/1 are more than big enough to warrant a small e/w interest, hopefully the rain arrives.

2024 Cambridgeshire Handicap Ante-Post Tip: Navagio e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Preview

A bad day at the office on Saturday. Hopefully we get back on track on Sunday, my 2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh tips are below.

1.50 – Bold Lad Handicap (Premier)

At odds of 10/1 I am keeping the faith with Torivega here. Regular readers will know I rate this horse. We have backed him on two of his last three starts, at Royal Ascot where he was given a poor ride and then here in a Premier Handicap where he finished an unlucky fourth. He was too short for the blog last time when unlucky again in third over C&D but he is a just about acceptable 10/1 today.

Robbie Colgan has lost the ride to David Egan and he could be the man to crack the code. The ground should be ideal for him and he will have options from stall 12. If Egan can manage to chart a clear passage on Sheila Lavery’s son of Lope De Vega, hopefully he can gain his first handicap win. At odds of 10/1, Torivega is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Torivega e/w @ 10/1 (6 places) NAP

2.25 – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)

As I mentioned yesterday, I fancied Rogue Millenium to run big in the Matron Stakes. Connections have decided to go for this 10f Group 2 instead but stable jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle prefers the proven 10f performer American Sonja.

I am going to leave the O’Brien runners alone and instead, I’ll take a punt on Bellezza at much bigger odds. Ger Lyons’ got a lovely winner on the board on Saturday and I am not sure this filly should be such a big price at around 25/1.

Listed Form

The daughter of Siyouni has been running excellent races in Listed company at 10f to 13f without quite getting her head in front. She found just Birdman too good over 13f at Navan in May, Hanalia (re-opposes here) beat her 0.75L over 10.5f at Naas in July and then she was beaten the same distance in third behind The Euphrates and Kinesiology at Gowran later that month.

The Euphrates has since finished second in a G3, Kinesiology was a fine second in a G3 at Leopardstown yesterday so the form is pretty decent. Lyons now tries blinkers on Bellezza and if they can eke out even a tiny bit of improvement, she won’t be far away from a place here. At odds of 25/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bellezza e/w @ 25/1

3.00 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

The worst turnout for this race in recent memory. Just five runners and three of them from Ballydoyle. Bedtime Story is 6/5 and to be honest, I am surprised she isn’t odds on. Lake Victoria also brings an unblemished record into the race and she rates a danger, as does the Ger Lyons filly Red Letter.

The sole UK raider Simmering is an improving sort and she could go well too but she is too short for the blog. I wouldn’t fully discount the rag Exactly given that she gave Bedtime story a race here last time but with just five runners and only two places on offer, this is an easy race to swerve. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet

3.35 – Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)

The race of the weekend in my opinion. A huge field of 18 will take their chances in this 5f sprint and it is a truly stacked field. Matilda Picotte is an intriguing runner on her first ever run over the minimum trip. She has an exceedingly high cruising speed over 7f and this looks well worth a shot. If there is any rain, she could make a very bold bid.

Moss Tucker won this last year and he is back to defend his crown. Ken Condon left him off for the summer, presumably to get softer ground later in the season. He ran with credit in the Sprint Cup at Haydock on his first run back but he is another one that might have appreciated a bit more rain. I am going to leave him today and hope that he gets his ground in the Champions Sprint at Ascot next month.

Keep The Faith

We have backed Makarova a couple of times already this season. She was ridden too forward in the King’s Stand and then the rattling quick ground was no use to her in the Nunthorpe. The slightly kinder surface today should be more to her liking and she ran a massive race over C&D when an arguably unlucky third behind Believing in the G2 Sapphire Stakes back in July.

Believing is drawn in stall 1 today and she is the 3/1 fav. There’s lots of pace in the lower stalls and I am hoping Makarova can sit off them early and get a late tow into the race. Tom Marquand looks an eye-catching booking and he has form figures of 1244462 on Ed Walker’s mare (the sixth was a 1.75l defeat in last year’s Abbaye). Hopefully he can conjure another good run out of her today at odds of 20/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Makarova e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB

4.10 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1)

Henri Matisse will be popular with favourite backers in this 7f Group 1 for the 2yos. He is 3/3 so far, all at this track. The form of his last two small field wins in G2 company isn’t the easiest to weigh up and I think it is safe to say this is going to be a much tougher proposition.

Aomori City looks an obvious threat, as does Scorthy Champ who only has 2L to find with the market leader on their meeting here three weeks ago. However, I will take them all on with the UK raider, Seagulls Eleven.

Trained by Hugo Palmer, this son of Galileo Gold has won one of his three starts. The victory came second time up in a Haydock novice on fast ground over this trip when he beat Green Storm by over 2l. However, it was his first run in Group 2 company at Newmarket that makes him of interest today.

In the Superlative Stakes he found just Ancient Truth too good, regarded as one of Godolphin’s best 2yos by Charlie Appleby. Back in third in that race was Wimbledon Hawkeye, who subsequently finished a superb second behind The Lion In Winter in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York. I think that form puts him right in the mix in this company and at odds of 12/1, Seagulls Eleven is worth backing e/w.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Seagulls Eleven e/w @ 12/1

4.45 – Irish St Leger (Group 1)

A race which will more than likely be dominated by those at the head of the market. It will probably boil down to a battle between Giavellotto and Kyprios and the value may just lie with the Botti horse but I am happy to just watch and enjoy this one. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No bet

5.20 – Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Race (2yo)

These sales races are the bane of my life. However, surely one of my selections will run a decent race someday, hopefully this is the day it happens! The one I’ll throw a few pennies at is Bluebelardo.

Trained by Michael Grassick, this filly was never sighted on her debut here over 6f. She was sent off 200/1 for her second start at Naas and she belied those odds with a massive run in fourth, beaten just 1.75L behind the 85 rated Rebel Diamond.

Just 0.75l in front of her in third was Right And True, a 5/1 shot for this. Now, it must be said that Bluebelardo didn’t look the most straightforward of rides. She kept on lugging to the left and Rory Cleary had to take a pull to try and angle her off the rail in the closing stages. Hopefully she has learnt from that experience and if she has, she could outrun her odds of 66/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bluebelardo 0.5pt e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)

5.55 – Northfields Handicap (Premier)

Johnny Murtagh has a fine record in this race. He won it in 2022 and 2020 and he had the fifth and seventh in it last year. The one that finished fifth last year was Take Heart off a mark of 95 and he is back for another go off 4lb higher. Billy Lee rides him but I am going to take a chance on his other runner, Mashhoor.

He was a Group 3 winner over this C&D last season, trouncing Al Riffa by almost 5l. He has a fine record here over 10f overall when he has had his favoured good ground and he looks likely to have his optimum conditions today.

He is the top rated here at 105 but Murtagh has enlisted a 10lb claimer to ease his burden. He’ll effectively be running off 95, he won his last handicap start at Cork off 96. This season hasn’t gone to plan for him so far but he’s been running in exalted company on ground softer than ideal. When he did get his ground at Chester, that track didn’t suit.

He now drops back into handicap company and if he could rediscover the form he showed when winning that G3 here last year, he could lead these on a merry dance. Patrick McGettigan has a win and a second from five previous rides for Murtagh, hopefully he can steer Mashhoor into the money at odds of 18/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Mashhoor e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB

-DaveStevos

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday

I have already posted an ante-post selection for the big one on Saturday, you can see that here. The 2024 Leger meeting kicks off on Thursday and I like a couple of horses at decent odds.

1.50 – Nursery Handicap (Class 2)

Plenty of horses with chances in this 6.5f handicap and one that may have slipped under the radar is the Charlie Johnston trained juvenile, Substitute. A pretty impressive winner on debut at Ripon (6f, gd), she had excuses for her next three starts.

On her second outing, again at Ripon, soft ground was probably not to her liking and she was beaten at odds on. That run didn’t discourage Charlie Johnston from running the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle in the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot third time up and she ended up finishing tenth of 16 in that contest.

Handicap Debut

On August 1st Substitute made her handicap debut at Goodwood. She travelled well and was bang in contention a furlong out but the 7f trip probably just stretched her stamina and she ended up sixth of 16, beaten 5l for the win and 2.5l for a place. That effort came off a mark of 79 and she is a pound lower here.

She has had a 42 day break since that last run and I am hoping she has strengthened up a little during that absence. The ground at Doncaster should be perfect for her and the slight drop back in trip to 6.5f is another cause for optimism. I have a terrible record tipping horses from this yard so proceed with caution, but at 20/1 I think Substitute is worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Substitute e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

3.00 – May Hill Stakes (Group 2)

My second bet on Thursday is going to be on the Ed Walker trained filly, Miss Tonnerre. By top sire Night Of Thunder, this 300k guineas yearling is a half sister to Pearling Path, the 2022 Chesham Stakes runner up.

She made her debut in mid-July at Newmarket over 7f in a fillies’ novice. She was slowly away, she looked like she was going to be outpaced after 5f but she picked up really strongly in the final furlong and she ran through the line strong to beat Shining Pearl, who had the benefit of a previous run, by half a length.

On that evidence, and on her pedigree, the step up to a mile here should really suit. Walker has booked Tom Marquand for the ride and he is 1/4 with two places when riding for this owner. Ed Walker sent Perfect Prophet out to finish third in this race in 2022 at 50/1, hopefully Miss Tonnerre can run a big race for him here at odds of 20/1.

 2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Miss Tonnerre e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip

We returned to the winner’s enclosure on Saturday on the TXMarkets blog. Joe Leavy landed the NAP at 12/1 on Grey’s Monument, making all in fine style. Hieronymus drifted like a barge to 80s but made a bold bid as we hoped, holding on for third. Poniros probably lacked a bit of fitness but he placed for us too at 16s. Hopefully we can land another winner with this 2024 St Leger Ante-Post tip.

Leger Losing Its Lustre

It is fair to say this contest has lost a fair bit of its lustre in recent years. In an era where the majority of flat breeders are obsessed by speed, most Leger winners nowadays end up destined to spend their days at stud as national hunt stallions, covering mares for three or four grand a pop.

Kingston Hill is standing for £3k. Harbour Law (£2k), Capri (£2.5k), Kew Gardens (£3k), Logician (£4k) and the 2020 winner Galileo Chrome (£3k) are all in and around that number too. Hurricane Lane won in 2021 and entered stud this year at an eye-popping fee of £6k. Surely there has to be some value in there somewhere…

This Year’s Race

Anyway, onto this year’s race. Predictably, the top few in the betting are Ballydoyle representatives and the home challenge looks to be spearheaded by Ralph Beckett’s You Got To Me and David Menuisier’s Sunway. The latter horse is one I like and I firmly believe he has a Group 1 win in him. Will it be this? It could be, but I’d love to see him in the Arc on testing ground and he’ll be a more suitable price for the blog in that.

The one I like at odds of 20/1 is the son of Camelot, Deira Mile. Owen Burrows has been adamant for a long time that this is a Leger horse and after his run in the Epsom Derby, I can see where he is coming from. We backed him (NB) at 25/1 for 4 places that day and he stayed on from the back for fourth, 7.5L behind City Of Troy.

Course Form

Last year, he ran a huge race to finish a 2.75L fourth behind Ancient Wisdom in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster, so he acts on this track and while he has form on bad ground, his run in the Derby proved he can be competitive on better ground too so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

He’s presumably priced up at 20s because he didn’t win an 11.5f Listed heat at Windsor on his return from an 84 day break. He was clearly too fresh and likely needed the run so that effort doesn’t put me off in the slightest. It was obviously just a prep run for this and hopefully, it will have left him spot on. 20/1 looks far too big a price to me and at those odds, Deira Mile has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip: Deira Mile e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos

Back Mak In The Nunthorpe

Unfortunately, Maljoom could never land a blow in the Juddmonte. He settled well and travelled ok but the 3yos were simply too good. The debate continues to rage about City Of Troy and he undoubtedly benefitted from being allowed a soft lead. However, he is building quite a CV and while he is no Frankel or Sea The Stars, he is a very, very good horse.

On Friday, the feature race at York is the Nunthorpe. This Group 1 sprint is always extremely competitive and this year is no different. Last year’s winner, Live In The Dream, has been targeted at this again and he is likely to be trained to the minute. His odds of 12/1 look far too big and he has a handy draw in stall 5.

Capable Of Winning A G1

Asfoora and Big Evs are others with obvious claims but last year’s fourth, Makarova, is the one I have come down on at odds of 25/1. I believe this mare has a G1 win in her and so does her trainer Ed Walker. I was convinced that her first win at the top table would come at Royal Ascot but the decision to put blinkers on backfired and while she wasn’t disgraced, she ended up seventh of 17, 4L behind Asfoora.

The blinkers lit her up that day and she raced far closer to the pace than usual. Those early exertions took their toll and she faded out of it in the final furlong. With the blinkers taken off, she returned to her best on her next two starts.

Blinkers Off

Firstly, she landed the G3 Coral Charge at Sandown (5f, sft) (Live In The Dream 3L back in third). Then, she lost very little in defeat behind Believing at the Curragh in the Sapphire Stakes, third beaten 2.25L after meeting traffic problems. I think with a clearer run she can get much closer to that rival (8/1 here).

She was beaten the same distance in this last year at huge odds behind Live In The Dream. She was only 0.5L behind Bradsell (6/1 here) and she is 2lb better off with him. She should get the strong pace she craves here, Hector Crouch knows her well and she isn’t too badly drawn in stall 9. At odds of 25/1, Makarova is worth backing e/w.

2024 Nunthorpe Stakes Tip: Makarova e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

An Each Way Fancy For The Juddmonte

The plan this week was to get away, do a bit of fishing, recharge the batteries and watch no racing. However, a thirteen runner Group 1 is such a rarity these days it would be rude not to have a go at something in tomorrow’s Juddmonte International Stakes at York. Holiday over in less than 24 hours!

The 16.1hh City Of Troy has been uneasy at the head of the market this week. Not many would have predicted the Second Coming would be odds against for this but he could be backed at as big as 6/4 with one firm this evening.

Will we see the City Of Troy that flopped in the Guineas, will we see the City Of Troy that won so well in the Derby or will we see the workmanlike City Of Troy that won the Coral Eclipse? It is this uncertainty that probably convinced so many trainers and owners have a go in this year’s Juddmonte and there are plenty of e/w alternatives if you fancy taking on the jolly.

Course Specialist

As regular readers will be well aware of, I am a sucker for a horse with lots of course form in the book. The horse I fancy here has never won at York, but his trainer is a proper course specialist and I think Maljoom can outrun his odds of 25/1 now upped to 10f for the first time by William Haggas.

By Caravaggio, if you just looked at Maljoom’s pedigree you would not think this trip would suit. He’s related to a 7f winner, his dam is related to 5f and 6f winners but sometimes, pedigrees can go out the window. On his last two starts at the top table over 8f this season, Maljoom has shaped like he wants further.

Slow Starter

In the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, he was slow away, he got outpaced at the 3f pole before staying on for third behind Charyn. Then, in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in first time blinkers, he was again a step slow away. However, this time he travelled into the race much better and didn’t come off the bridle until the 2f pole. He finished off really strongly for second, finishing just 1.5L behind crack miler Notable Speech (G1 winners Facteur Cheval and Henry Longfellow behind).

The blinkers are unsurprisingly retained today and over this extra 2f, he may be able to travel better for even longer. As I mentioned earlier, William Haggas usually does well at York and he won this a couple of years ago with the mighty Baaeed. Is Maljoom as good as him? Probably not, but this looks a pretty open renewal of the Juddmonte and at odds of 25/1, hopefully he stays the trip and hits the frame for e/w players.

2024 Juddmonte International Tip: Maljoom e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

Estepona Worth A Look In The Morny

It was great to get a winner on the board today with Faustus but it was a pity we got nothing to go with him. It is Prix Morny day at Deauville tomorrow and after having a good look at the race, I can’t let the unbeaten Estepona go unbacked for modest stakes at odds of 28/1.

As you would expect for a Group 1, this looks a competitive race. We have the G2 Norfolk Stakes winner Shareholder, the G2 July Stakes winner Whistlejacket, the G2 Robert Papin winner Arabie, the Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar and the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk.

The bookies rate Daylight as the best of the French contenders and that is understandable because she won a G3 over C&D. However, the unbeaten Mehmas colt Estepona is the one that caught my eye and while he needs to step up massively on what he has achieved to date, I don’t think he should be written off.

Well Bred

First of all, this lad has a couple of Group 1 winners in his pedigree. His dam, Cigalera, was a smart 3yo, placing in Listed and G3 company and her half-sister placed in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Estepona’s great grand-dam, is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Satwa Queen and Spadoun so while you do have to go back a couple of generations, he is from a good family. His sire Mehmas isn’t half bad either and he has already sired a few G1 2yo winners.

Estepona has raced twice over this C&D (both last month) and narrowly prevailed in both. In the first race he was forced to lead, they went a bit of a crawl before quickening 2f out and he just came out on top, beating an Andre Fabre Godolphin hotpot by a short head.

His next start, when he beat today’s rival Epson Blue Cen, was a bit of a farcical affair. None of the five runners wanted to lead and they absolutely dawdled through the first couple of furlongs. Again, they quickened around 400m out and Epson Blue Cen got first run, but Estepona reeled her in close to home and his jockey never had to resort to the persuader.

Proper Gallop

In all likelihood, it is going to be a truly run race in the Morny. It is impossible to know how Estepona will cope when they go a proper gallop from the outset and the recent record of French horses in this race suggests that he may be up against it.

However, I think he might be even better in a strongly run affair. He is a powerful looking colt who seems to be built like a proper sprinter and he only did enough, and no more, when winning his first two races. They haven’t looked under the bonnet properly yet and there’s no doubt that they will in this Group 1.

Maybe he won’t have the engine to compete with these proven Group performers, but I think he might and at the prices, he is worth throwing some loose change at.

2024 Prix Morny Tip: Estepona e/w @ 28/1

-DaveStevos

Son Worth A Look On Handicap Debut

What a day it was for us on Saturday. We failed to hit the target with our first three bets but I thought Julia Augusta ran with great credit in the Valiant. Rage Of Bamby got us off the mark in fine style by winning at York, advised at 20/1. However, the best was yet to come.

Goliath, our 33/1 e/w NAP, finally got the end to end gallop he craved and he absolutely demolished Auguste Rodin and co in the King George. As I hoped, he settled beautifully in behind the front runners and from at least five furlongs out you could see there was only going to be one winner.

The son of Adlerflug is now the top rated turf horse in the world at 125, all he needed was a truly run race to show how good he actually is.

Goodwood Thursday Fancy

My e/w fancy for Thursday goes in the opener at Glorious Goodwood. Son, making his handicap debut off 101, is a horse we have backed before, this season and last. He was my 20/1 e/w NAP when he ran in the Greenham in April and he was beaten just 1.5L into fourth after being backed down to 9/2. We were also on at 40s when he finished a 2.5L 5th behind Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge last September.

Now, it must be said, that Greenham form has been let down since, including by Son. He nearly ran off the track on his next start at Sandown (8f sft) and finished stone last. On paper, his last run at Ascot (7f) in the G3 Jersey Stakes looked another poor effort but I don’t think it was quite as bad as his finishing position suggests.

Worth A Try Up In Trip

The records will show he finished 13th of 19, beaten 9L. However, he was drawn low, he took a while to settle and as the race developed, he was caught behind a wall of horses. In the end, he finished his race off rather nicely and given his pedigree, he looks well worth trying at this sort of trip.

The son of Too Darn Hot usually raced prominently previous to that Royal Ascot run. The new, more patient tactics seemed to suit him and he was just 1.5L behind Ziggy’s Dream at the finish, 3rd here in Wednesday’s Oak Tree Stakes. There’s loads of potential pace in this race and I am hoping that they go hard early and he can settle in behind the leaders in a decent position on the inner and hopefully, come with a late challenge.

Now, there is a chance that Son might need to be gelded before he shows what he is fully capable of. However, he ran well here on his only previous visit as a 2yo and I saw enough promise in his run at Ascot to justify a small e/w interest on him today on his first handicap start, especially at odds of 40/1.

1.50 Goodwood Selection: Son e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Goliath A Huge Price For King George

Our long wait for a winner finally ended on Saturday. Our 16/1 NAP Castel Gandolfo made it third time lucky in the Summer Hurdle and on another day, our NB Torivega might have won too. This weekend, the feature race is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and at 33/1, Goliath looks far too big.

This French raider is trained by Francis Graffard and news broke this afternoon that not only would his charge definitely be running, he has also booked the brilliant Belgian Christophe Soumillon for the ride.

This fella was last sighted running in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Meeting over this C&D. He is a free going sort who often struggles to settle so Graffard was hoping that he would get a strongly run race, which would enable Goliath to travel a bit more evenly.

Plan Out The Window

However, that plan went out the window after a furlong. Nobody wanted to set the fractions in front and the race descended into a bit of a dawdle. Goliath started pulling the arms off Maxime Guyon after a furlong and he failed to settle for well over a mile.

As they turned for home Guyon was waiting for room, his mount still seemingly on the bridle, when Ise Of Jura swept down the outside and scooted clear. Goliath eventually ran on for second and when you consider how the race unfolded, it was a fine effort by the son of Adlerflug. He had Middle Earth 0.75L behind in third and Continuous even further back in fifth and they are 14/1 and 10/1 respectively here. Goliath is 33s.

Best Yet To Come

Like Graffard, I believe that we won’t see the best of this horse until he gets a proper end to end gallop. Thankfully, that is what Auguste Rodin needs too and O’Brien is likely to run at least one pacemaker for him. This could be the first time that Goliath gets a race run to suit and it’ll be fascinating to see how he fares if he settles and gets a strong pace to aim at.

We know he handles the track and while he might prefer a slight bit of juice in the ground, we know he ran well on fast ground at the Royal Meeting. He’s already beaten Middle Earth and Continuous in similar conditions, yet he is over 3x the price of the O’Brien horse and 2x the price of Middle Earth.

If Auguste Rodin pitches up in peak condition, he’s the one to beat but he can throw in the occasional stinker. Even if he does win, there’s still three places on offer and at 33/1, it is worth taking a chance on Goliath each way.

2024 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Tip: Goliath e/w @ 33/1 (3 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

Wet Weather July Meeting E/W Double

My dreams for heavy rain came true at HQ today. They got 20mm in the space of just an hour and it is now officially soft. Our 100/1 July Cup bet on Vadream looks decent value now as she has shortened into 33s/25s in most places. Hopefully she brings her A-Game on Saturday.

Now that we know the ground will definitely be soft, I have found a couple of horses whose chances will be enhanced by the unseasonally wet weather. The first one I am interested in is Palmar Bay in the heritage handicap at 3pm on Thursday.

Ralph Beckett trains this son of Exceed and Excel and he is proven in testing ground. He has had just one start this term and it was a modest effort at Sandown 26 days ago. However, it was over a trip of 7f and he looked far too fresh.

That was his second try at 7f. Last season, he had a go in a handicap at Donny on heavy ground and he was again keen, ending up third beat 3L off 88. Previous to that, he had been campaigned solely over 5f and 6f. He was beat at odds of 5/4 on debut at Windsor (5f sft) but he made amends at Salisbury second time up, beating Jasour over 5f on good.

That form looks more than decent now and he followed it up with a 0.75L defeat of Solar Aclaim in a class 2 conditions race on soft at Salisbury. I think the drop back to 6f is a big plus today. They’ll go quicker, which should help him to settle and we know he handles testing ground. At odds of 25/1, he can hopefully hit the frame.

Global Can Outrun Odds

So, who else will appreciate a bit of cut this weekend? On Saturday, there’s a mile handicap for the 3yos at 2.50 and with the Brookhouse yard in good form, Global Skies might be worth a second glance. Like our old friend Mondo Man, this horse is by Mondialiste. His Sea The Stars dam won on soft, his full brother Balboa has won on heavy and Global Skies has already shown a liking for easy ground.

Ok, he admittedly didn’t run well on heavy at Doncaster on his last run of 2023 but that was a listed heat and it may have come too soon after his good second at Nottingham 17 days earlier. He had previously got off the mark on his first try on soft in a Haydock maiden and his best form this year has come on soft ground too.

Back in April he ran a fine race to finish third at Beverley (7.5f sft), beat 1.5L off 86. Good ground and 10f/9f can be blamed for his two runs since but every cloud has a silver lining. He’s been dropped to a mark of 83 and now that he’s back at a mile on soft ground, he could resume his progress.

Jack Gilligan is 6/36 with 16 top 4 finishes for Brookhouse, hopefully he can improve on that excellent frame hitting strike rate. At odds of 25/1, Global Skies is the e/w selection. Back him and Palmar Bay in singles and a cheeky little e/w double.

Newmarket Selections: 3pm Thursday: Palmar Bay e/w @ 25/1 (5 places); 2.50pm Saturday: Global Skies e/w @ 25/1 (4 places). 2x e/w singles and an e/w double recommended.

Let It Rain At Newmarket

Saturday was a bit of a disaster. Unbreak My Heart came up short at Sandown and Magic Memories was pipped for a place. At Haydock, the rain never came and that put paid to the chances of both our bets there. You’d think I’d have learned my lesson regarding trusting weather forecasts but there’s a deluge forecast for Newmarket this week and if the rain arrives, there’s a 100/1 shot who will relish the muck.

We latched onto Vadream at decent odds when there was rain forecast on Lincoln Day at Donny (6f hvy) last year. She duly went on to win easily and she won again on soft a few weeks later on the Rowley course at Newmarket over the minimum trip, beating Live In The Dream by half a length.

She has failed to get her head in front in ten runs since but to be fair to her, only two of those runs came on soft ground. In October she was arguably a shade unlucky in an Ascot G3 on good ground, short of room and finishing just 1.75l behind the now 110 rated Annaf.

This season, her best run came when beat a head behind Seven Questions over 5f, again on good ground at Newmarket. She simply didn’t show up on her sole soft ground start this term at Haydock but there was a lot more to like about her excellent fifth in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

Charlie Fellowes’ daughter of Brazen Beau was 4.75L behind the winner Khaadem but she was only a couple of lengths behind Mill Stream (14/1) and if the rain comes and it turns bottomless, I reckon she could turn the tables on both of those rivals.

Jasour (10/1/), River Tiber (6/1) and Regional (9/1) won’t appreciate testing ground. Inisherin is a horse I rate highly and he has won on soft and good to firm. He looks a bit of a monster but apart from him, this looks a pretty open race to me. Vadream is capable of running to 110+ on bottomless ground, if the rain comes and she runs to that level, hopefully it’ll be good enough for a place.

July Cup Ante-Post Selection: Vadream e/w @ 100/1

A Couple For Newcastle & The Curragh

Ascot wasn’t a complete disaster but it could have been a lot better. Brian nicked the e/w money at 33s in the Chesham and Swingalong was just touched off for us as the NB at 14/1. The places keep things ticking over but we are due a winner. Hopefully it happens this weekend. I’m just putting a couple up for Saturday, I’ll be previewing every race at the Curragh on Sunday for TXMarkets.

1.15 Curragh – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)

These are always risky races to get involved in but I can never resist backing a 66/1 poke for whom a decent case can be made on pedigree. David Marnane has already had a 2yo winner this season with Yoshi, who ran a cracking race in the Windsor Castle last week. He is well able to ready one first time up and I am hoping that Ja’marr can do himself justice on his debut in this 7f maiden.

He is by Zoustar, a top sire in Australia who, in my opinion, has been underutilised in this part of the world. His winners to runners strike rate with 2yos is a respectable 31/116 (27%) but what makes this colt of more interest is the dam side of his pedigree.

His dam, Butterfly Kiss, is by Medaglia d’Oro. She has already produced a 7f winner (3yo) and while she was unraced herself, she is out of a dam called Laughing Lashes. She won the Debutante Stakes over this C&D on yielding ground back in 2010.

Even more interestingly, she made her racecourse debut on quick ground in the fillies’ maiden on this card fourteen years ago. Trained by Jessie Harrington, she was sent off at odds of 16/1 and she just failed to get up to beat Wild Wind. She had to settle for second, a short head behind the winner.

Can Ja’marr follow in her hoofsteps? Well, the booking of Luke McAteer is a plus. He has ridden 27 2yos for Marnane, winning on three and finishing in the first four another twelve times. That’s a frame hitting strike rate of over 55% so hopefully, he can steer Ja’marr into the frame on Saturday.

This is definitely one for small stakes because you just never know how backward or forward these debutants are. However, at odds of 66/1 a small e/w bet is surely warranted.

Curragh Saturday Tip: Ja’marr e/w @ 66/1

2.35 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase Handicap (Class 2)

Nothing is really taking my fancy in the Northumberland Plate but there’s one in the consolation race that might outrun his odds of 16/1. Pons Aelius ran poorly over 14f at Catterick last time out but there was more encouragement to take from his previous outing there over today’s trip of 16f. He was only beaten 1.75L by Animato off a rating of 69 and it marked a welcome return to form after a long spell in the doldrums.

His last previous decent effort came over this C&D last November. He finished 2.75L fourth behind Aqwaam off a mark of 78, just fading in the last half a furlong. That wasn’t his first good run around Newcastle. In June 2022, he ran into second over 12f off a mark of 75, beat just over a length for the win.

Today, Pons Aelius rocks up with an official rating of 68. That’s 10lbs lower than he was last November. Now, it must be said that his mark has dropped for a reason and this is a better class of race than he has been running in recently. However, he has won in class 2 company before and that was off a mark of 80 at Kempton a couple of years ago.

Charlie Johnston has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride. He is 7/33 for the yard and he has finished in the first four on another thirteen occasions (60% frame hitting strike rate). Pons Aelius has a decent draw in stall 6, hopefully he can make a bold bid at odds of 16/1.

Saturday Newcastle Tip: Pons Aelius e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Preview

A bit of respite at last. Go Daddy finished third for us at 33s and he was arguably a shade unlucky. Bellum Justum also placed at 20s. Things are looking up! We go again on Day 4, 2024 Royal Ascot Friday preview is below.

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3)

Fairy Godmother is seemingly highly regarded in Ballydoyle and she is the 7/4 fav. She was beaten on debut decisively by Sparkling Sea but she turned that 2.5L deficit on yielding ground into a neck win on better ground at Naas.

In that Naas race California Dreamer was back in third for Adrian Murray. The Westmeath man had a 150/1 winner at this meeting last year and while this filly isn’t quite as big as that, she still looks a pretty generous price to me at odds of 18/1.

Maiden

She comes into this race as a maiden after two starts. Her best effort came second time up in that Naas G3. David Egan sneaked up the inside and he sent his partner to the front to go and win the race 2F out. A furlong out it looked like she had it in the bag but in hindsight, he probably went too soon and she was reeled in close to home by Fairy Godmother (and Sparkling Sea).

It was a very encouraging turf debut by the daughter of Mehmas and she should be effective on the fast ground at Ascot. I think she’ll be suited by a strongly run race over this trip and if David Egan is more patient and times his challenge right, she could hit the frame at odds of 18/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: California Dreamer e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Inisherin has been hammered into 9/4 for this 3yo Group 1. Regular readers will know I put him up for the 2000 Guineas but it seems like he is better over shorter. He was extremely impressive when hosing up on soft ground at Haydock last time and he has run well over a mile on good to firm ground in the past. I have to be honest, I saw him as potentially staying further than a mile before the Guineas so if he has the speed for this on fast ground, he’s some horse.

He isn’t any use to us at 9/4 though. Instead, I am going to take a punt on the French raider, Classic Flower. She is drawn low, which has generally been a negative in massive fields this week. However, in the Norfolk the first two home were drawn in 4 & 2 so hopefully, there’ll be no bias in this fifteen runner field.

Calyx

This French trained G2 winner is by Calyx, an up and coming sire. She has a lot of experience for a horse of her age and this will be the first time she has got nice ground this season. She won her G2 at Chantilly last season on good to firm, beating the then 105 rated Dawn Charger into second and the subsequent Temple Stakes third Seven Questions into third.

Her form figures on good/good to firm ground read 1113. She ran well in a G3 last time, despite being in season, so I would expect a big jolt of improvement on that effort. Mickael Barzalona rode when she had her biggest win at Chantilly and he is back in the plate today. Classic Flower has run well before over 7f so this stiff 6f could really suit her and at odds of 40/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Classic Flower e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

3.45 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1)

A race in which it is hard to see any of the bigger priced ones making an impact. I was half tempted by Skellet but she is from the same family as Skitter Scatter and she didn’t train on from 2yo to 3yo. See The Fire is another one with 2yo form that might give her a squeak but it is alarming that Oisin Murphy has jumped ship to ride Ramatuelle.

I am going to give this race a wide berth. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2)

Mullins and Moore teamed up to win with Belloccio earlier this week. They are hoping to repeat the trick with Ethical Diamond in this handicap and the bookies make him the 11/4 fav. He beat a decent horse in Beechwood when winning his maiden at Limerick and he ran a blinder on his handicap debut over 10f at Leopardstown last month. He did get 5lbs for that near miss though so he’ll need a big career best here.

At odds of 33/1, maybe Struth can go well for Charlie Johnston and Richard Kingscote. Thirteen days ago at Haydock this 4yo son of Australia bounced back to form after a couple of poor runs. He was only beat 0.75L in that valuable 12f race by Iron Lion and he gets in off the same rating today.

While Between Drinks

It has been a while between drinks for this horse. His last win came on his seasonal reappearance last year, a 12f handicap at Chester off 86. Since then he has run some big races without getting his head in front, including at this track.

This gelding has run here on four occasions. He flopped over C&D in the King George V Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year but in July he was beat just 1.75L off 95. Then, in August he was beat a head off 94, the same mark he races off today. He lost a shoe when fourth in the Lavazza Stakes on his last visit to this track.

Richard Kingscote has finished third all three times he has ridden Struth, another third would do us tomorrow. At odds of 33/1, Struth is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Struth e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) 

5.05 – Sandringham Stakes (Class 2)

So far this week it has looked like a low draw has been a big negative in massive fields on the straight course. That has to be a huge worry for those who have backed Indelible into the 9/2 fav. She is clearly a talented horse but that draw in stall 4, and the fact she is unproven on fast ground, has to be a concern for fav backers.

One horse who won’t have any concerns about the draw is Bellarchi. This filly is trained by Grant Tuer, a man who knows how to win a handicap. This filly has landed a nice draw in stall 26 and she will enjoy this ground.

C&D Form

Tuer’s filly has won two of her last three starts in handicap company. Her last win came over this C&D off 87 on good ground when she beat a nice horse of Ed Walker’s by 0.75L. If she was mine, I’d have targeted this race immediately after that win and the way she has been campaigned since suggests that Tuer has done exactly that.

Bellarchi’s last two runs have come in Listed company. She wasn’t disgraced when beat 4.75L at York six days after her Ascot win. Then, two weeks later she ran in another Listed heat at Epsom. That was a poor effort but the good to soft ground and drop to 7f were probably not in her favour.

She now returns to the scene of her last handicap win off a mark of 91. Brandon Wilkie, who has won on her before, is back in the plate and with his 5lbs claim, she’ll be carrying a lovely racing weight. It looked like she won with a fair bit in hand here last month, hopefully the return to this venue sparks her back to that sort of form. At 50/1, Bellarchi is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Bellarchi e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)

5.40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

We backed Mondo Man in the Prix du Jockey Club a few weeks ago. He absolutely flew home down the outside that day over 10f and I think this step up to 12f is really going to suit the son of Mondialiste. William Buick keeps the faith on P&J Brandt’s charge and odds of 16/1 about the French raider look far too big now he drops back down into G2 company.

He’s the type of horse that could well be suited by a strongly run race. In France, they often dawdle before sprinting in the closing stages and that is probably why this horse has only won one of his five starts.

Mondo Man finished a neck behind Ghostwriter at Chantilly. He was fourth in the 2000 Guineas and is rated 112. Mondo Man has been handed a rating of 111 on the back of that run so he is joint top rated with Diego Velazquez, yet he is 4x his price. At odds of 16/1, he has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4 places)

6.15 – Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (Class 2)

From a favourable draw in stall 25, I think Got To Love A Grey could make a bold bid. Karl Burke’s daughter of Dark Angel has been running in stakes company this season and she has yet to encounter quick ground. She gets in off a mark of 97 for her handicap debut and a couple of snippets of her form suggest she could be fairly treated.

She beat Classic Flower (our bet in the Commonwealth) by 1.5L on good to soft ground at Chantilly back in March. That was her second win at Listed level. Last season, she made all to win a similar race at York, beating her stablemate Dorothy Lawrence into second. That was on good to firm ground and it was good ground for her next start in the Queen Mary over this C&D.

Queen Mary Run

Drawn in stall 15 that day, she tried to make all and she ended up finishing a very creditable fifth, beat 4.5L for the win. Just in front of her was subsequent G3 winner Juniper Berries in fourth. In third was future Listed winner Beautiful Diamond (rated 103) and the winner is rated 108.

That run suggests that there might be a little bit of wriggle room off her mark of 97. Sam James usually rides and he is back on board again. 5F is her best trip, her two best runs have come on good/good to firm and she is well drawn. Chances are, something will probably come and do her late but at 40/1, it is worth chancing that she hangs on for a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Got To Love A Grey e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Preview

When faced with times of trouble some say it is best to focus on the positives. That won’t take us too long. Another day, another blank. Ropey Guest, Betty Clover and Calyxoh had more horses behind them than in front of them at the finish but again, a place evaded us. At least things can’t get any worse, I suppose. My 2024 Royal Ascot Thursday preview is below.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)

A 5f Group 2 for the juveniles kicks off Day 3 of the Royal Meeting. Whistlejacket heads the betting for O’Brien and Moore. Ballydoyle fired in a double on Wednesday and this horse was very impressive when landing a listed contest at the Curragh last time out. However, both his runs to date came on testing ground and conditions couldn’t be much more different today. That being said, his full brother Little Big Bear won on good to firm so he may well handle it.

The fact remains that we don’t know for sure if he’ll go on the ground and that is off putting with a horse as short as he is. Another soft ground winner in this field is the Karl Burke trained Milford. This Kodiac colt looked very promising when hacking up on debut at Hamilton. How strong was the race? Not very, but he was sent off at just 6/5 and he won in the manner of a very good horse.

Given his pedigree, I would expect him to be even more at home on this fast ground. I’ve looked back at the form of multiple horses bred along the same lines (Kodiac x Shamardal dam) and almost every one I checked liked fast conditions. Burke has already had a juvenile winner and if the money comes for this lad, it could be telling. At odds of 18/1, Milford is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Milford e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

This contest should be run at a very strong pace. There’s a heap of pace angles in it and I am going to bank on it setting up for a hold up horse. The one I have come down on is Go Daddy. Trained by Grassick and Muir, this son of Smooth Daddy will be partnered by Lewis Edmunds. He’s run twice this season and he shaped much better on his second start at Newbury in the London Gold Cup.

In that contest he was dropped out early and he travelled into the race well. He got slightly hampered in the last furlong or so but he ran on pretty well for seventh. Ok, he was almost 8L behind the winner King’s Gambit but he was only 2L behind Persica, 3.5L behind Chantilly and 3.75L behind Poniros, all of whom reoppose here.

Go Daddy was running off 89 that day, he’s now been dropped to 87. He is now 11lbs better off with Persica, 5lbs better off with Chantilly and 6lbs better off with Poniros. Those three are significantly shorter in the betting here than Go Daddy and given the relatively small distances between them, surely Go Daddy is the e/w value here at 33/1. He’s a half brother to a 14f winner so hopefully the step up to 12f will suit.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Go Daddy e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

3.45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)

A race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden in recent seasons. Gosden is triple handed this year and Aidan runs two but the favourite is trained by Charlie Appleby, a handler who has yet to taste success in this contest.

Diamond Rain is just 13/8 to extend her unbeaten sequence to three. She won her novice here on debut over 8f (gd/sft) and then added a 10f Newbury Listed race in fine fashion on her second start. Will she stay 12f? Her dam won the Oaks so she probably will and she wasn’t stopping at the finish at Newbury.

The value probably lies with one of the three Gosden horses but I just can’t really make a genuine case for them. The percentage call is to leave this race alone. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Gold Cup (Group 1)

The class act in this race is Kyprios. Aidan O’Brien’s star stayer won this in 2022 and he is back to try and regain his crown two years later. Now a 6yo, the 117 rated son of Galileo has won his last two starts over 14f in Listed and G3 company and he’ll be hoping to take revenge on Trawlerman, his conqueror here over 16f in the Champions Long Distance Cup back in October.

Trawlerman was last sighted finishing behind Tower Of London in Meydan three months ago. He will relish this quick ground and he looks a threat. So does Coltrane. It feels like he’s been around for donkey’s years but he is still just a 7yo. He likes it here and he usually goes out on his shield.

The one I am backing is Caius Chorister. She is a gutsy mare and David Menuisier deserves to land a big one after some excellent runs at the highest level in recent weeks. This trip is a new test for the daughter of Golden Horn but it looks well worth trying.

Menuisier’s charge already has form in the book with Coltrane and Sweet William, both of whom beat her by a head over 16f this season on easy ground. Caius Chorister has done most her winning on good to firm ground so she’ll enjoy the conditions and she’s 3lbs better off with both Coltrane and Sweet William. The fav will probably be hard to beat but with odds of 20/1 available, it is worth taking a chance that Caius Chorister can run into a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Caius Chorister e/w @ 20/1 

5.05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

I can’t believe I am tipping up another horse that will be ridden by Jim Crowley but desperate times require desperate measures and all that. Whip Cracker is a horse we have previous with. We backed him on his third start in a Listed race at Newmarket and he ran a blinder to finish second, 3.25L behind Jayarebe, a 9/1 shot for the G3 Hampton Court.

A short head behind Whip Cracker in that 9f heat was Caviar Heights, now rated 109. In fourth was Ambiente Friendly, now rated 117 after finishing second in the Derby. Not bad form, is it. Whip Cracker ran again two weeks later upped to 10f in another Listed race at Newmarket. He was too keen and weakened so I’m not surprised Hughes has decided to come back in trip.

Usually I swerve handicap debutants but this horse has already run in a decent sized field in a Listed race so I am making an exception. He has a favoured high draw, his best run suggests that a mark of 101 could be workable and he has form on quickish ground. At odds of 28/1, Whip Cracker is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 28/1 (4 places 1/4)

5.40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 2)

Oisin Murphy is in rare form at the moment and he could get a good spin on Bellum Justum here. This horse first caught my eye when I was putting Inisherin up for the Guineas. He beat Kevin Ryan’s charge (now fav for the Commonwealth Cup) in that 8f maiden on good to firm ground and I was keen to see how he got on when stepped up to Listed company on his return at Epsom.

The son of Sea The Stars duly went and won that race, beating Chief Little Rock into third. He went out and won a G3 next time out and is 12/1 for the King Edward on Friday. Andrew Balding decided to head back to Epsom for the big one and while he ran respectably, Bellum Justum looked like he didn’t stay on the rain softened ground and he weakened into seventh.

The return to 10F is a big plus for this colt and the good to firm ground will suit him better than the good to soft at Epsom. I was surprised to see him as big as 20/1 when I had a look at the odds this evening and at that price, he has to be worth chancing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Bellum Justum e/w @ 20/1

6.15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

We backed Greatgadian for the AW Champs Mile final at Newcastle back in March. He ran a shocker that day but he has been freshened up and that, combined with his form on fast ground at Ascot, has convinced me to go in on him for small stakes again.

This son of Siyouni has a decent record when fresh. When he is returning from breaks of 59 days or more, he has career form figures of 25141. All his most recent form is on artificial surfaces but he has run some more than decent races in turf handicaps, including at this meeting.

Two years ago he ran a nice enough race to be beat 7L in the Hunt Cup here over a mile off 102. A couple of months later he ran a blinder to finish 1.75L behind Jungle Cove here, again over a mile, off a mark of 101. His only run at Ascot over 7f came all the way back in 2020 on his debut and he again ran well, finishing third beat 4L.

Course Form

Overall, his career form figures at Ascot read 3/11/3/2/15 so he has run well there more often than not. He is also going to be racing off an effective mark of 89 with Aidan Keeley’s claim, so he’ll be 13lbs lower than he was in the 2022 Hunt Cup and 12lbs lower than when placed twice later on in 2022.

He wasn’t fresh when running in handicaps here at the last two meetings so hopefully, the decision to give him an 83 day break pays dividends. The way this week has gone so far, keep stakes small, but at 66/1 I think Greatgadian could outrun those odds.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Greatgadian e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos