2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Preview

A bad day at the office on Saturday. Hopefully we get back on track on Sunday, my 2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh tips are below.

1.50 – Bold Lad Handicap (Premier)

At odds of 10/1 I am keeping the faith with Torivega here. Regular readers will know I rate this horse. We have backed him on two of his last three starts, at Royal Ascot where he was given a poor ride and then here in a Premier Handicap where he finished an unlucky fourth. He was too short for the blog last time when unlucky again in third over C&D but he is a just about acceptable 10/1 today.

Robbie Colgan has lost the ride to David Egan and he could be the man to crack the code. The ground should be ideal for him and he will have options from stall 12. If Egan can manage to chart a clear passage on Sheila Lavery’s son of Lope De Vega, hopefully he can gain his first handicap win. At odds of 10/1, Torivega is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Torivega e/w @ 10/1 (6 places) NAP

2.25 – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)

As I mentioned yesterday, I fancied Rogue Millenium to run big in the Matron Stakes. Connections have decided to go for this 10f Group 2 instead but stable jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle prefers the proven 10f performer American Sonja.

I am going to leave the O’Brien runners alone and instead, I’ll take a punt on Bellezza at much bigger odds. Ger Lyons’ got a lovely winner on the board on Saturday and I am not sure this filly should be such a big price at around 25/1.

Listed Form

The daughter of Siyouni has been running excellent races in Listed company at 10f to 13f without quite getting her head in front. She found just Birdman too good over 13f at Navan in May, Hanalia (re-opposes here) beat her 0.75L over 10.5f at Naas in July and then she was beaten the same distance in third behind The Euphrates and Kinesiology at Gowran later that month.

The Euphrates has since finished second in a G3, Kinesiology was a fine second in a G3 at Leopardstown yesterday so the form is pretty decent. Lyons now tries blinkers on Bellezza and if they can eke out even a tiny bit of improvement, she won’t be far away from a place here. At odds of 25/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bellezza e/w @ 25/1

3.00 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1)

The worst turnout for this race in recent memory. Just five runners and three of them from Ballydoyle. Bedtime Story is 6/5 and to be honest, I am surprised she isn’t odds on. Lake Victoria also brings an unblemished record into the race and she rates a danger, as does the Ger Lyons filly Red Letter.

The sole UK raider Simmering is an improving sort and she could go well too but she is too short for the blog. I wouldn’t fully discount the rag Exactly given that she gave Bedtime story a race here last time but with just five runners and only two places on offer, this is an easy race to swerve. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No Bet

3.35 – Flying Five Stakes (Group 1)

The race of the weekend in my opinion. A huge field of 18 will take their chances in this 5f sprint and it is a truly stacked field. Matilda Picotte is an intriguing runner on her first ever run over the minimum trip. She has an exceedingly high cruising speed over 7f and this looks well worth a shot. If there is any rain, she could make a very bold bid.

Moss Tucker won this last year and he is back to defend his crown. Ken Condon left him off for the summer, presumably to get softer ground later in the season. He ran with credit in the Sprint Cup at Haydock on his first run back but he is another one that might have appreciated a bit more rain. I am going to leave him today and hope that he gets his ground in the Champions Sprint at Ascot next month.

Keep The Faith

We have backed Makarova a couple of times already this season. She was ridden too forward in the King’s Stand and then the rattling quick ground was no use to her in the Nunthorpe. The slightly kinder surface today should be more to her liking and she ran a massive race over C&D when an arguably unlucky third behind Believing in the G2 Sapphire Stakes back in July.

Believing is drawn in stall 1 today and she is the 3/1 fav. There’s lots of pace in the lower stalls and I am hoping Makarova can sit off them early and get a late tow into the race. Tom Marquand looks an eye-catching booking and he has form figures of 1244462 on Ed Walker’s mare (the sixth was a 1.75l defeat in last year’s Abbaye). Hopefully he can conjure another good run out of her today at odds of 20/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Makarova e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB

4.10 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1)

Henri Matisse will be popular with favourite backers in this 7f Group 1 for the 2yos. He is 3/3 so far, all at this track. The form of his last two small field wins in G2 company isn’t the easiest to weigh up and I think it is safe to say this is going to be a much tougher proposition.

Aomori City looks an obvious threat, as does Scorthy Champ who only has 2L to find with the market leader on their meeting here three weeks ago. However, I will take them all on with the UK raider, Seagulls Eleven.

Trained by Hugo Palmer, this son of Galileo Gold has won one of his three starts. The victory came second time up in a Haydock novice on fast ground over this trip when he beat Green Storm by over 2l. However, it was his first run in Group 2 company at Newmarket that makes him of interest today.

In the Superlative Stakes he found just Ancient Truth too good, regarded as one of Godolphin’s best 2yos by Charlie Appleby. Back in third in that race was Wimbledon Hawkeye, who subsequently finished a superb second behind The Lion In Winter in the G3 Acomb Stakes at York. I think that form puts him right in the mix in this company and at odds of 12/1, Seagulls Eleven is worth backing e/w.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Seagulls Eleven e/w @ 12/1

4.45 – Irish St Leger (Group 1)

A race which will more than likely be dominated by those at the head of the market. It will probably boil down to a battle between Giavellotto and Kyprios and the value may just lie with the Botti horse but I am happy to just watch and enjoy this one. No bet.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: No bet

5.20 – Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sales Race (2yo)

These sales races are the bane of my life. However, surely one of my selections will run a decent race someday, hopefully this is the day it happens! The one I’ll throw a few pennies at is Bluebelardo.

Trained by Michael Grassick, this filly was never sighted on her debut here over 6f. She was sent off 200/1 for her second start at Naas and she belied those odds with a massive run in fourth, beaten just 1.75L behind the 85 rated Rebel Diamond.

Just 0.75l in front of her in third was Right And True, a 5/1 shot for this. Now, it must be said that Bluebelardo didn’t look the most straightforward of rides. She kept on lugging to the left and Rory Cleary had to take a pull to try and angle her off the rail in the closing stages. Hopefully she has learnt from that experience and if she has, she could outrun her odds of 66/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Bluebelardo 0.5pt e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)

5.55 – Northfields Handicap (Premier)

Johnny Murtagh has a fine record in this race. He won it in 2022 and 2020 and he had the fifth and seventh in it last year. The one that finished fifth last year was Take Heart off a mark of 95 and he is back for another go off 4lb higher. Billy Lee rides him but I am going to take a chance on his other runner, Mashhoor.

He was a Group 3 winner over this C&D last season, trouncing Al Riffa by almost 5l. He has a fine record here over 10f overall when he has had his favoured good ground and he looks likely to have his optimum conditions today.

He is the top rated here at 105 but Murtagh has enlisted a 10lb claimer to ease his burden. He’ll effectively be running off 95, he won his last handicap start at Cork off 96. This season hasn’t gone to plan for him so far but he’s been running in exalted company on ground softer than ideal. When he did get his ground at Chester, that track didn’t suit.

He now drops back into handicap company and if he could rediscover the form he showed when winning that G3 here last year, he could lead these on a merry dance. Patrick McGettigan has a win and a second from five previous rides for Murtagh, hopefully he can steer Mashhoor into the money at odds of 18/1.

2024 Irish Champions Weekend Curragh Tip: Mashhoor e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB

-DaveStevos

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday

I have already posted an ante-post selection for the big one on Saturday, you can see that here. The 2024 Leger meeting kicks off on Thursday and I like a couple of horses at decent odds.

1.50 – Nursery Handicap (Class 2)

Plenty of horses with chances in this 6.5f handicap and one that may have slipped under the radar is the Charlie Johnston trained juvenile, Substitute. A pretty impressive winner on debut at Ripon (6f, gd), she had excuses for her next three starts.

On her second outing, again at Ripon, soft ground was probably not to her liking and she was beaten at odds on. That run didn’t discourage Charlie Johnston from running the daughter of Bungle Inthejungle in the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot third time up and she ended up finishing tenth of 16 in that contest.

Handicap Debut

On August 1st Substitute made her handicap debut at Goodwood. She travelled well and was bang in contention a furlong out but the 7f trip probably just stretched her stamina and she ended up sixth of 16, beaten 5l for the win and 2.5l for a place. That effort came off a mark of 79 and she is a pound lower here.

She has had a 42 day break since that last run and I am hoping she has strengthened up a little during that absence. The ground at Doncaster should be perfect for her and the slight drop back in trip to 6.5f is another cause for optimism. I have a terrible record tipping horses from this yard so proceed with caution, but at 20/1 I think Substitute is worth a couple of quid e/w.

2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Substitute e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)

3.00 – May Hill Stakes (Group 2)

My second bet on Thursday is going to be on the Ed Walker trained filly, Miss Tonnerre. By top sire Night Of Thunder, this 300k guineas yearling is a half sister to Pearling Path, the 2022 Chesham Stakes runner up.

She made her debut in mid-July at Newmarket over 7f in a fillies’ novice. She was slowly away, she looked like she was going to be outpaced after 5f but she picked up really strongly in the final furlong and she ran through the line strong to beat Shining Pearl, who had the benefit of a previous run, by half a length.

On that evidence, and on her pedigree, the step up to a mile here should really suit. Walker has booked Tom Marquand for the ride and he is 1/4 with two places when riding for this owner. Ed Walker sent Perfect Prophet out to finish third in this race in 2022 at 50/1, hopefully Miss Tonnerre can run a big race for him here at odds of 20/1.

 2024 Doncaster Leger Meeting Thursday Tip: Miss Tonnerre e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip

We returned to the winner’s enclosure on Saturday on the TXMarkets blog. Joe Leavy landed the NAP at 12/1 on Grey’s Monument, making all in fine style. Hieronymus drifted like a barge to 80s but made a bold bid as we hoped, holding on for third. Poniros probably lacked a bit of fitness but he placed for us too at 16s. Hopefully we can land another winner with this 2024 St Leger Ante-Post tip.

Leger Losing Its Lustre

It is fair to say this contest has lost a fair bit of its lustre in recent years. In an era where the majority of flat breeders are obsessed by speed, most Leger winners nowadays end up destined to spend their days at stud as national hunt stallions, covering mares for three or four grand a pop.

Kingston Hill is standing for £3k. Harbour Law (£2k), Capri (£2.5k), Kew Gardens (£3k), Logician (£4k) and the 2020 winner Galileo Chrome (£3k) are all in and around that number too. Hurricane Lane won in 2021 and entered stud this year at an eye-popping fee of £6k. Surely there has to be some value in there somewhere…

This Year’s Race

Anyway, onto this year’s race. Predictably, the top few in the betting are Ballydoyle representatives and the home challenge looks to be spearheaded by Ralph Beckett’s You Got To Me and David Menuisier’s Sunway. The latter horse is one I like and I firmly believe he has a Group 1 win in him. Will it be this? It could be, but I’d love to see him in the Arc on testing ground and he’ll be a more suitable price for the blog in that.

The one I like at odds of 20/1 is the son of Camelot, Deira Mile. Owen Burrows has been adamant for a long time that this is a Leger horse and after his run in the Epsom Derby, I can see where he is coming from. We backed him (NB) at 25/1 for 4 places that day and he stayed on from the back for fourth, 7.5L behind City Of Troy.

Course Form

Last year, he ran a huge race to finish a 2.75L fourth behind Ancient Wisdom in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster, so he acts on this track and while he has form on bad ground, his run in the Derby proved he can be competitive on better ground too so it won’t really matter what the weather does.

He’s presumably priced up at 20s because he didn’t win an 11.5f Listed heat at Windsor on his return from an 84 day break. He was clearly too fresh and likely needed the run so that effort doesn’t put me off in the slightest. It was obviously just a prep run for this and hopefully, it will have left him spot on. 20/1 looks far too big a price to me and at those odds, Deira Mile has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 St Leger Ante-Post Tip: Deira Mile e/w @ 20/1

-DaveStevos

Back Mak In The Nunthorpe

Unfortunately, Maljoom could never land a blow in the Juddmonte. He settled well and travelled ok but the 3yos were simply too good. The debate continues to rage about City Of Troy and he undoubtedly benefitted from being allowed a soft lead. However, he is building quite a CV and while he is no Frankel or Sea The Stars, he is a very, very good horse.

On Friday, the feature race at York is the Nunthorpe. This Group 1 sprint is always extremely competitive and this year is no different. Last year’s winner, Live In The Dream, has been targeted at this again and he is likely to be trained to the minute. His odds of 12/1 look far too big and he has a handy draw in stall 5.

Capable Of Winning A G1

Asfoora and Big Evs are others with obvious claims but last year’s fourth, Makarova, is the one I have come down on at odds of 25/1. I believe this mare has a G1 win in her and so does her trainer Ed Walker. I was convinced that her first win at the top table would come at Royal Ascot but the decision to put blinkers on backfired and while she wasn’t disgraced, she ended up seventh of 17, 4L behind Asfoora.

The blinkers lit her up that day and she raced far closer to the pace than usual. Those early exertions took their toll and she faded out of it in the final furlong. With the blinkers taken off, she returned to her best on her next two starts.

Blinkers Off

Firstly, she landed the G3 Coral Charge at Sandown (5f, sft) (Live In The Dream 3L back in third). Then, she lost very little in defeat behind Believing at the Curragh in the Sapphire Stakes, third beaten 2.25L after meeting traffic problems. I think with a clearer run she can get much closer to that rival (8/1 here).

She was beaten the same distance in this last year at huge odds behind Live In The Dream. She was only 0.5L behind Bradsell (6/1 here) and she is 2lb better off with him. She should get the strong pace she craves here, Hector Crouch knows her well and she isn’t too badly drawn in stall 9. At odds of 25/1, Makarova is worth backing e/w.

2024 Nunthorpe Stakes Tip: Makarova e/w @ 25/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

An Each Way Fancy For The Juddmonte

The plan this week was to get away, do a bit of fishing, recharge the batteries and watch no racing. However, a thirteen runner Group 1 is such a rarity these days it would be rude not to have a go at something in tomorrow’s Juddmonte International Stakes at York. Holiday over in less than 24 hours!

The 16.1hh City Of Troy has been uneasy at the head of the market this week. Not many would have predicted the Second Coming would be odds against for this but he could be backed at as big as 6/4 with one firm this evening.

Will we see the City Of Troy that flopped in the Guineas, will we see the City Of Troy that won so well in the Derby or will we see the workmanlike City Of Troy that won the Coral Eclipse? It is this uncertainty that probably convinced so many trainers and owners have a go in this year’s Juddmonte and there are plenty of e/w alternatives if you fancy taking on the jolly.

Course Specialist

As regular readers will be well aware of, I am a sucker for a horse with lots of course form in the book. The horse I fancy here has never won at York, but his trainer is a proper course specialist and I think Maljoom can outrun his odds of 25/1 now upped to 10f for the first time by William Haggas.

By Caravaggio, if you just looked at Maljoom’s pedigree you would not think this trip would suit. He’s related to a 7f winner, his dam is related to 5f and 6f winners but sometimes, pedigrees can go out the window. On his last two starts at the top table over 8f this season, Maljoom has shaped like he wants further.

Slow Starter

In the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, he was slow away, he got outpaced at the 3f pole before staying on for third behind Charyn. Then, in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood in first time blinkers, he was again a step slow away. However, this time he travelled into the race much better and didn’t come off the bridle until the 2f pole. He finished off really strongly for second, finishing just 1.5L behind crack miler Notable Speech (G1 winners Facteur Cheval and Henry Longfellow behind).

The blinkers are unsurprisingly retained today and over this extra 2f, he may be able to travel better for even longer. As I mentioned earlier, William Haggas usually does well at York and he won this a couple of years ago with the mighty Baaeed. Is Maljoom as good as him? Probably not, but this looks a pretty open renewal of the Juddmonte and at odds of 25/1, hopefully he stays the trip and hits the frame for e/w players.

2024 Juddmonte International Tip: Maljoom e/w @ 25/1

-DaveStevos

Estepona Worth A Look In The Morny

It was great to get a winner on the board today with Faustus but it was a pity we got nothing to go with him. It is Prix Morny day at Deauville tomorrow and after having a good look at the race, I can’t let the unbeaten Estepona go unbacked for modest stakes at odds of 28/1.

As you would expect for a Group 1, this looks a competitive race. We have the G2 Norfolk Stakes winner Shareholder, the G2 July Stakes winner Whistlejacket, the G2 Robert Papin winner Arabie, the Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar and the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes winner Arabian Dusk.

The bookies rate Daylight as the best of the French contenders and that is understandable because she won a G3 over C&D. However, the unbeaten Mehmas colt Estepona is the one that caught my eye and while he needs to step up massively on what he has achieved to date, I don’t think he should be written off.

Well Bred

First of all, this lad has a couple of Group 1 winners in his pedigree. His dam, Cigalera, was a smart 3yo, placing in Listed and G3 company and her half-sister placed in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac. Estepona’s great grand-dam, is a half-sister to Group 1 winners Satwa Queen and Spadoun so while you do have to go back a couple of generations, he is from a good family. His sire Mehmas isn’t half bad either and he has already sired a few G1 2yo winners.

Estepona has raced twice over this C&D (both last month) and narrowly prevailed in both. In the first race he was forced to lead, they went a bit of a crawl before quickening 2f out and he just came out on top, beating an Andre Fabre Godolphin hotpot by a short head.

His next start, when he beat today’s rival Epson Blue Cen, was a bit of a farcical affair. None of the five runners wanted to lead and they absolutely dawdled through the first couple of furlongs. Again, they quickened around 400m out and Epson Blue Cen got first run, but Estepona reeled her in close to home and his jockey never had to resort to the persuader.

Proper Gallop

In all likelihood, it is going to be a truly run race in the Morny. It is impossible to know how Estepona will cope when they go a proper gallop from the outset and the recent record of French horses in this race suggests that he may be up against it.

However, I think he might be even better in a strongly run affair. He is a powerful looking colt who seems to be built like a proper sprinter and he only did enough, and no more, when winning his first two races. They haven’t looked under the bonnet properly yet and there’s no doubt that they will in this Group 1.

Maybe he won’t have the engine to compete with these proven Group performers, but I think he might and at the prices, he is worth throwing some loose change at.

2024 Prix Morny Tip: Estepona e/w @ 28/1

-DaveStevos

Son Worth A Look On Handicap Debut

What a day it was for us on Saturday. We failed to hit the target with our first three bets but I thought Julia Augusta ran with great credit in the Valiant. Rage Of Bamby got us off the mark in fine style by winning at York, advised at 20/1. However, the best was yet to come.

Goliath, our 33/1 e/w NAP, finally got the end to end gallop he craved and he absolutely demolished Auguste Rodin and co in the King George. As I hoped, he settled beautifully in behind the front runners and from at least five furlongs out you could see there was only going to be one winner.

The son of Adlerflug is now the top rated turf horse in the world at 125, all he needed was a truly run race to show how good he actually is.

Goodwood Thursday Fancy

My e/w fancy for Thursday goes in the opener at Glorious Goodwood. Son, making his handicap debut off 101, is a horse we have backed before, this season and last. He was my 20/1 e/w NAP when he ran in the Greenham in April and he was beaten just 1.5L into fourth after being backed down to 9/2. We were also on at 40s when he finished a 2.5L 5th behind Ghostwriter in the Royal Lodge last September.

Now, it must be said, that Greenham form has been let down since, including by Son. He nearly ran off the track on his next start at Sandown (8f sft) and finished stone last. On paper, his last run at Ascot (7f) in the G3 Jersey Stakes looked another poor effort but I don’t think it was quite as bad as his finishing position suggests.

Worth A Try Up In Trip

The records will show he finished 13th of 19, beaten 9L. However, he was drawn low, he took a while to settle and as the race developed, he was caught behind a wall of horses. In the end, he finished his race off rather nicely and given his pedigree, he looks well worth trying at this sort of trip.

The son of Too Darn Hot usually raced prominently previous to that Royal Ascot run. The new, more patient tactics seemed to suit him and he was just 1.5L behind Ziggy’s Dream at the finish, 3rd here in Wednesday’s Oak Tree Stakes. There’s loads of potential pace in this race and I am hoping that they go hard early and he can settle in behind the leaders in a decent position on the inner and hopefully, come with a late challenge.

Now, there is a chance that Son might need to be gelded before he shows what he is fully capable of. However, he ran well here on his only previous visit as a 2yo and I saw enough promise in his run at Ascot to justify a small e/w interest on him today on his first handicap start, especially at odds of 40/1.

1.50 Goodwood Selection: Son e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Goliath A Huge Price For King George

Our long wait for a winner finally ended on Saturday. Our 16/1 NAP Castel Gandolfo made it third time lucky in the Summer Hurdle and on another day, our NB Torivega might have won too. This weekend, the feature race is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and at 33/1, Goliath looks far too big.

This French raider is trained by Francis Graffard and news broke this afternoon that not only would his charge definitely be running, he has also booked the brilliant Belgian Christophe Soumillon for the ride.

This fella was last sighted running in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal Meeting over this C&D. He is a free going sort who often struggles to settle so Graffard was hoping that he would get a strongly run race, which would enable Goliath to travel a bit more evenly.

Plan Out The Window

However, that plan went out the window after a furlong. Nobody wanted to set the fractions in front and the race descended into a bit of a dawdle. Goliath started pulling the arms off Maxime Guyon after a furlong and he failed to settle for well over a mile.

As they turned for home Guyon was waiting for room, his mount still seemingly on the bridle, when Ise Of Jura swept down the outside and scooted clear. Goliath eventually ran on for second and when you consider how the race unfolded, it was a fine effort by the son of Adlerflug. He had Middle Earth 0.75L behind in third and Continuous even further back in fifth and they are 14/1 and 10/1 respectively here. Goliath is 33s.

Best Yet To Come

Like Graffard, I believe that we won’t see the best of this horse until he gets a proper end to end gallop. Thankfully, that is what Auguste Rodin needs too and O’Brien is likely to run at least one pacemaker for him. This could be the first time that Goliath gets a race run to suit and it’ll be fascinating to see how he fares if he settles and gets a strong pace to aim at.

We know he handles the track and while he might prefer a slight bit of juice in the ground, we know he ran well on fast ground at the Royal Meeting. He’s already beaten Middle Earth and Continuous in similar conditions, yet he is over 3x the price of the O’Brien horse and 2x the price of Middle Earth.

If Auguste Rodin pitches up in peak condition, he’s the one to beat but he can throw in the occasional stinker. Even if he does win, there’s still three places on offer and at 33/1, it is worth taking a chance on Goliath each way.

2024 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Tip: Goliath e/w @ 33/1 (3 places) NAP

-DaveStevos

Wet Weather July Meeting E/W Double

My dreams for heavy rain came true at HQ today. They got 20mm in the space of just an hour and it is now officially soft. Our 100/1 July Cup bet on Vadream looks decent value now as she has shortened into 33s/25s in most places. Hopefully she brings her A-Game on Saturday.

Now that we know the ground will definitely be soft, I have found a couple of horses whose chances will be enhanced by the unseasonally wet weather. The first one I am interested in is Palmar Bay in the heritage handicap at 3pm on Thursday.

Ralph Beckett trains this son of Exceed and Excel and he is proven in testing ground. He has had just one start this term and it was a modest effort at Sandown 26 days ago. However, it was over a trip of 7f and he looked far too fresh.

That was his second try at 7f. Last season, he had a go in a handicap at Donny on heavy ground and he was again keen, ending up third beat 3L off 88. Previous to that, he had been campaigned solely over 5f and 6f. He was beat at odds of 5/4 on debut at Windsor (5f sft) but he made amends at Salisbury second time up, beating Jasour over 5f on good.

That form looks more than decent now and he followed it up with a 0.75L defeat of Solar Aclaim in a class 2 conditions race on soft at Salisbury. I think the drop back to 6f is a big plus today. They’ll go quicker, which should help him to settle and we know he handles testing ground. At odds of 25/1, he can hopefully hit the frame.

Global Can Outrun Odds

So, who else will appreciate a bit of cut this weekend? On Saturday, there’s a mile handicap for the 3yos at 2.50 and with the Brookhouse yard in good form, Global Skies might be worth a second glance. Like our old friend Mondo Man, this horse is by Mondialiste. His Sea The Stars dam won on soft, his full brother Balboa has won on heavy and Global Skies has already shown a liking for easy ground.

Ok, he admittedly didn’t run well on heavy at Doncaster on his last run of 2023 but that was a listed heat and it may have come too soon after his good second at Nottingham 17 days earlier. He had previously got off the mark on his first try on soft in a Haydock maiden and his best form this year has come on soft ground too.

Back in April he ran a fine race to finish third at Beverley (7.5f sft), beat 1.5L off 86. Good ground and 10f/9f can be blamed for his two runs since but every cloud has a silver lining. He’s been dropped to a mark of 83 and now that he’s back at a mile on soft ground, he could resume his progress.

Jack Gilligan is 6/36 with 16 top 4 finishes for Brookhouse, hopefully he can improve on that excellent frame hitting strike rate. At odds of 25/1, Global Skies is the e/w selection. Back him and Palmar Bay in singles and a cheeky little e/w double.

Newmarket Selections: 3pm Thursday: Palmar Bay e/w @ 25/1 (5 places); 2.50pm Saturday: Global Skies e/w @ 25/1 (4 places). 2x e/w singles and an e/w double recommended.

Let It Rain At Newmarket

Saturday was a bit of a disaster. Unbreak My Heart came up short at Sandown and Magic Memories was pipped for a place. At Haydock, the rain never came and that put paid to the chances of both our bets there. You’d think I’d have learned my lesson regarding trusting weather forecasts but there’s a deluge forecast for Newmarket this week and if the rain arrives, there’s a 100/1 shot who will relish the muck.

We latched onto Vadream at decent odds when there was rain forecast on Lincoln Day at Donny (6f hvy) last year. She duly went on to win easily and she won again on soft a few weeks later on the Rowley course at Newmarket over the minimum trip, beating Live In The Dream by half a length.

She has failed to get her head in front in ten runs since but to be fair to her, only two of those runs came on soft ground. In October she was arguably a shade unlucky in an Ascot G3 on good ground, short of room and finishing just 1.75l behind the now 110 rated Annaf.

This season, her best run came when beat a head behind Seven Questions over 5f, again on good ground at Newmarket. She simply didn’t show up on her sole soft ground start this term at Haydock but there was a lot more to like about her excellent fifth in the Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

Charlie Fellowes’ daughter of Brazen Beau was 4.75L behind the winner Khaadem but she was only a couple of lengths behind Mill Stream (14/1) and if the rain comes and it turns bottomless, I reckon she could turn the tables on both of those rivals.

Jasour (10/1/), River Tiber (6/1) and Regional (9/1) won’t appreciate testing ground. Inisherin is a horse I rate highly and he has won on soft and good to firm. He looks a bit of a monster but apart from him, this looks a pretty open race to me. Vadream is capable of running to 110+ on bottomless ground, if the rain comes and she runs to that level, hopefully it’ll be good enough for a place.

July Cup Ante-Post Selection: Vadream e/w @ 100/1

A Couple For Newcastle & The Curragh

Ascot wasn’t a complete disaster but it could have been a lot better. Brian nicked the e/w money at 33s in the Chesham and Swingalong was just touched off for us as the NB at 14/1. The places keep things ticking over but we are due a winner. Hopefully it happens this weekend. I’m just putting a couple up for Saturday, I’ll be previewing every race at the Curragh on Sunday for TXMarkets.

1.15 Curragh – Irish EBF Maiden (2yo)

These are always risky races to get involved in but I can never resist backing a 66/1 poke for whom a decent case can be made on pedigree. David Marnane has already had a 2yo winner this season with Yoshi, who ran a cracking race in the Windsor Castle last week. He is well able to ready one first time up and I am hoping that Ja’marr can do himself justice on his debut in this 7f maiden.

He is by Zoustar, a top sire in Australia who, in my opinion, has been underutilised in this part of the world. His winners to runners strike rate with 2yos is a respectable 31/116 (27%) but what makes this colt of more interest is the dam side of his pedigree.

His dam, Butterfly Kiss, is by Medaglia d’Oro. She has already produced a 7f winner (3yo) and while she was unraced herself, she is out of a dam called Laughing Lashes. She won the Debutante Stakes over this C&D on yielding ground back in 2010.

Even more interestingly, she made her racecourse debut on quick ground in the fillies’ maiden on this card fourteen years ago. Trained by Jessie Harrington, she was sent off at odds of 16/1 and she just failed to get up to beat Wild Wind. She had to settle for second, a short head behind the winner.

Can Ja’marr follow in her hoofsteps? Well, the booking of Luke McAteer is a plus. He has ridden 27 2yos for Marnane, winning on three and finishing in the first four another twelve times. That’s a frame hitting strike rate of over 55% so hopefully, he can steer Ja’marr into the frame on Saturday.

This is definitely one for small stakes because you just never know how backward or forward these debutants are. However, at odds of 66/1 a small e/w bet is surely warranted.

Curragh Saturday Tip: Ja’marr e/w @ 66/1

2.35 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase Handicap (Class 2)

Nothing is really taking my fancy in the Northumberland Plate but there’s one in the consolation race that might outrun his odds of 16/1. Pons Aelius ran poorly over 14f at Catterick last time out but there was more encouragement to take from his previous outing there over today’s trip of 16f. He was only beaten 1.75L by Animato off a rating of 69 and it marked a welcome return to form after a long spell in the doldrums.

His last previous decent effort came over this C&D last November. He finished 2.75L fourth behind Aqwaam off a mark of 78, just fading in the last half a furlong. That wasn’t his first good run around Newcastle. In June 2022, he ran into second over 12f off a mark of 75, beat just over a length for the win.

Today, Pons Aelius rocks up with an official rating of 68. That’s 10lbs lower than he was last November. Now, it must be said that his mark has dropped for a reason and this is a better class of race than he has been running in recently. However, he has won in class 2 company before and that was off a mark of 80 at Kempton a couple of years ago.

Charlie Johnston has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride. He is 7/33 for the yard and he has finished in the first four on another thirteen occasions (60% frame hitting strike rate). Pons Aelius has a decent draw in stall 6, hopefully he can make a bold bid at odds of 16/1.

Saturday Newcastle Tip: Pons Aelius e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Preview

A bit of respite at last. Go Daddy finished third for us at 33s and he was arguably a shade unlucky. Bellum Justum also placed at 20s. Things are looking up! We go again on Day 4, 2024 Royal Ascot Friday preview is below.

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3)

Fairy Godmother is seemingly highly regarded in Ballydoyle and she is the 7/4 fav. She was beaten on debut decisively by Sparkling Sea but she turned that 2.5L deficit on yielding ground into a neck win on better ground at Naas.

In that Naas race California Dreamer was back in third for Adrian Murray. The Westmeath man had a 150/1 winner at this meeting last year and while this filly isn’t quite as big as that, she still looks a pretty generous price to me at odds of 18/1.

Maiden

She comes into this race as a maiden after two starts. Her best effort came second time up in that Naas G3. David Egan sneaked up the inside and he sent his partner to the front to go and win the race 2F out. A furlong out it looked like she had it in the bag but in hindsight, he probably went too soon and she was reeled in close to home by Fairy Godmother (and Sparkling Sea).

It was a very encouraging turf debut by the daughter of Mehmas and she should be effective on the fast ground at Ascot. I think she’ll be suited by a strongly run race over this trip and if David Egan is more patient and times his challenge right, she could hit the frame at odds of 18/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: California Dreamer e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)

Inisherin has been hammered into 9/4 for this 3yo Group 1. Regular readers will know I put him up for the 2000 Guineas but it seems like he is better over shorter. He was extremely impressive when hosing up on soft ground at Haydock last time and he has run well over a mile on good to firm ground in the past. I have to be honest, I saw him as potentially staying further than a mile before the Guineas so if he has the speed for this on fast ground, he’s some horse.

He isn’t any use to us at 9/4 though. Instead, I am going to take a punt on the French raider, Classic Flower. She is drawn low, which has generally been a negative in massive fields this week. However, in the Norfolk the first two home were drawn in 4 & 2 so hopefully, there’ll be no bias in this fifteen runner field.

Calyx

This French trained G2 winner is by Calyx, an up and coming sire. She has a lot of experience for a horse of her age and this will be the first time she has got nice ground this season. She won her G2 at Chantilly last season on good to firm, beating the then 105 rated Dawn Charger into second and the subsequent Temple Stakes third Seven Questions into third.

Her form figures on good/good to firm ground read 1113. She ran well in a G3 last time, despite being in season, so I would expect a big jolt of improvement on that effort. Mickael Barzalona rode when she had her biggest win at Chantilly and he is back in the plate today. Classic Flower has run well before over 7f so this stiff 6f could really suit her and at odds of 40/1, she is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Classic Flower e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

3.45 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1)

A race in which it is hard to see any of the bigger priced ones making an impact. I was half tempted by Skellet but she is from the same family as Skitter Scatter and she didn’t train on from 2yo to 3yo. See The Fire is another one with 2yo form that might give her a squeak but it is alarming that Oisin Murphy has jumped ship to ride Ramatuelle.

I am going to give this race a wide berth. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Class 2)

Mullins and Moore teamed up to win with Belloccio earlier this week. They are hoping to repeat the trick with Ethical Diamond in this handicap and the bookies make him the 11/4 fav. He beat a decent horse in Beechwood when winning his maiden at Limerick and he ran a blinder on his handicap debut over 10f at Leopardstown last month. He did get 5lbs for that near miss though so he’ll need a big career best here.

At odds of 33/1, maybe Struth can go well for Charlie Johnston and Richard Kingscote. Thirteen days ago at Haydock this 4yo son of Australia bounced back to form after a couple of poor runs. He was only beat 0.75L in that valuable 12f race by Iron Lion and he gets in off the same rating today.

While Between Drinks

It has been a while between drinks for this horse. His last win came on his seasonal reappearance last year, a 12f handicap at Chester off 86. Since then he has run some big races without getting his head in front, including at this track.

This gelding has run here on four occasions. He flopped over C&D in the King George V Stakes at the Royal Meeting last year but in July he was beat just 1.75L off 95. Then, in August he was beat a head off 94, the same mark he races off today. He lost a shoe when fourth in the Lavazza Stakes on his last visit to this track.

Richard Kingscote has finished third all three times he has ridden Struth, another third would do us tomorrow. At odds of 33/1, Struth is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Struth e/w @ 33/1 (5 places) 

5.05 – Sandringham Stakes (Class 2)

So far this week it has looked like a low draw has been a big negative in massive fields on the straight course. That has to be a huge worry for those who have backed Indelible into the 9/2 fav. She is clearly a talented horse but that draw in stall 4, and the fact she is unproven on fast ground, has to be a concern for fav backers.

One horse who won’t have any concerns about the draw is Bellarchi. This filly is trained by Grant Tuer, a man who knows how to win a handicap. This filly has landed a nice draw in stall 26 and she will enjoy this ground.

C&D Form

Tuer’s filly has won two of her last three starts in handicap company. Her last win came over this C&D off 87 on good ground when she beat a nice horse of Ed Walker’s by 0.75L. If she was mine, I’d have targeted this race immediately after that win and the way she has been campaigned since suggests that Tuer has done exactly that.

Bellarchi’s last two runs have come in Listed company. She wasn’t disgraced when beat 4.75L at York six days after her Ascot win. Then, two weeks later she ran in another Listed heat at Epsom. That was a poor effort but the good to soft ground and drop to 7f were probably not in her favour.

She now returns to the scene of her last handicap win off a mark of 91. Brandon Wilkie, who has won on her before, is back in the plate and with his 5lbs claim, she’ll be carrying a lovely racing weight. It looked like she won with a fair bit in hand here last month, hopefully the return to this venue sparks her back to that sort of form. At 50/1, Bellarchi is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Bellarchi e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)

5.40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2)

We backed Mondo Man in the Prix du Jockey Club a few weeks ago. He absolutely flew home down the outside that day over 10f and I think this step up to 12f is really going to suit the son of Mondialiste. William Buick keeps the faith on P&J Brandt’s charge and odds of 16/1 about the French raider look far too big now he drops back down into G2 company.

He’s the type of horse that could well be suited by a strongly run race. In France, they often dawdle before sprinting in the closing stages and that is probably why this horse has only won one of his five starts.

Mondo Man finished a neck behind Ghostwriter at Chantilly. He was fourth in the 2000 Guineas and is rated 112. Mondo Man has been handed a rating of 111 on the back of that run so he is joint top rated with Diego Velazquez, yet he is 4x his price. At odds of 16/1, he has to be worth backing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 16/1 NAP (4 places)

6.15 – Palace Of Holyrood Stakes (Class 2)

From a favourable draw in stall 25, I think Got To Love A Grey could make a bold bid. Karl Burke’s daughter of Dark Angel has been running in stakes company this season and she has yet to encounter quick ground. She gets in off a mark of 97 for her handicap debut and a couple of snippets of her form suggest she could be fairly treated.

She beat Classic Flower (our bet in the Commonwealth) by 1.5L on good to soft ground at Chantilly back in March. That was her second win at Listed level. Last season, she made all to win a similar race at York, beating her stablemate Dorothy Lawrence into second. That was on good to firm ground and it was good ground for her next start in the Queen Mary over this C&D.

Queen Mary Run

Drawn in stall 15 that day, she tried to make all and she ended up finishing a very creditable fifth, beat 4.5L for the win. Just in front of her was subsequent G3 winner Juniper Berries in fourth. In third was future Listed winner Beautiful Diamond (rated 103) and the winner is rated 108.

That run suggests that there might be a little bit of wriggle room off her mark of 97. Sam James usually rides and he is back on board again. 5F is her best trip, her two best runs have come on good/good to firm and she is well drawn. Chances are, something will probably come and do her late but at 40/1, it is worth chancing that she hangs on for a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Friday Tip: Got To Love A Grey e/w @ 40/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Preview

When faced with times of trouble some say it is best to focus on the positives. That won’t take us too long. Another day, another blank. Ropey Guest, Betty Clover and Calyxoh had more horses behind them than in front of them at the finish but again, a place evaded us. At least things can’t get any worse, I suppose. My 2024 Royal Ascot Thursday preview is below.

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2)

A 5f Group 2 for the juveniles kicks off Day 3 of the Royal Meeting. Whistlejacket heads the betting for O’Brien and Moore. Ballydoyle fired in a double on Wednesday and this horse was very impressive when landing a listed contest at the Curragh last time out. However, both his runs to date came on testing ground and conditions couldn’t be much more different today. That being said, his full brother Little Big Bear won on good to firm so he may well handle it.

The fact remains that we don’t know for sure if he’ll go on the ground and that is off putting with a horse as short as he is. Another soft ground winner in this field is the Karl Burke trained Milford. This Kodiac colt looked very promising when hacking up on debut at Hamilton. How strong was the race? Not very, but he was sent off at just 6/5 and he won in the manner of a very good horse.

Given his pedigree, I would expect him to be even more at home on this fast ground. I’ve looked back at the form of multiple horses bred along the same lines (Kodiac x Shamardal dam) and almost every one I checked liked fast conditions. Burke has already had a juvenile winner and if the money comes for this lad, it could be telling. At odds of 18/1, Milford is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Milford e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

3.05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

This contest should be run at a very strong pace. There’s a heap of pace angles in it and I am going to bank on it setting up for a hold up horse. The one I have come down on is Go Daddy. Trained by Grassick and Muir, this son of Smooth Daddy will be partnered by Lewis Edmunds. He’s run twice this season and he shaped much better on his second start at Newbury in the London Gold Cup.

In that contest he was dropped out early and he travelled into the race well. He got slightly hampered in the last furlong or so but he ran on pretty well for seventh. Ok, he was almost 8L behind the winner King’s Gambit but he was only 2L behind Persica, 3.5L behind Chantilly and 3.75L behind Poniros, all of whom reoppose here.

Go Daddy was running off 89 that day, he’s now been dropped to 87. He is now 11lbs better off with Persica, 5lbs better off with Chantilly and 6lbs better off with Poniros. Those three are significantly shorter in the betting here than Go Daddy and given the relatively small distances between them, surely Go Daddy is the e/w value here at 33/1. He’s a half brother to a 14f winner so hopefully the step up to 12f will suit.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Go Daddy e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

3.45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)

A race that has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden in recent seasons. Gosden is triple handed this year and Aidan runs two but the favourite is trained by Charlie Appleby, a handler who has yet to taste success in this contest.

Diamond Rain is just 13/8 to extend her unbeaten sequence to three. She won her novice here on debut over 8f (gd/sft) and then added a 10f Newbury Listed race in fine fashion on her second start. Will she stay 12f? Her dam won the Oaks so she probably will and she wasn’t stopping at the finish at Newbury.

The value probably lies with one of the three Gosden horses but I just can’t really make a genuine case for them. The percentage call is to leave this race alone. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: No Bet

4.25 – Gold Cup (Group 1)

The class act in this race is Kyprios. Aidan O’Brien’s star stayer won this in 2022 and he is back to try and regain his crown two years later. Now a 6yo, the 117 rated son of Galileo has won his last two starts over 14f in Listed and G3 company and he’ll be hoping to take revenge on Trawlerman, his conqueror here over 16f in the Champions Long Distance Cup back in October.

Trawlerman was last sighted finishing behind Tower Of London in Meydan three months ago. He will relish this quick ground and he looks a threat. So does Coltrane. It feels like he’s been around for donkey’s years but he is still just a 7yo. He likes it here and he usually goes out on his shield.

The one I am backing is Caius Chorister. She is a gutsy mare and David Menuisier deserves to land a big one after some excellent runs at the highest level in recent weeks. This trip is a new test for the daughter of Golden Horn but it looks well worth trying.

Menuisier’s charge already has form in the book with Coltrane and Sweet William, both of whom beat her by a head over 16f this season on easy ground. Caius Chorister has done most her winning on good to firm ground so she’ll enjoy the conditions and she’s 3lbs better off with both Coltrane and Sweet William. The fav will probably be hard to beat but with odds of 20/1 available, it is worth taking a chance that Caius Chorister can run into a place.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Caius Chorister e/w @ 20/1 

5.05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

I can’t believe I am tipping up another horse that will be ridden by Jim Crowley but desperate times require desperate measures and all that. Whip Cracker is a horse we have previous with. We backed him on his third start in a Listed race at Newmarket and he ran a blinder to finish second, 3.25L behind Jayarebe, a 9/1 shot for the G3 Hampton Court.

A short head behind Whip Cracker in that 9f heat was Caviar Heights, now rated 109. In fourth was Ambiente Friendly, now rated 117 after finishing second in the Derby. Not bad form, is it. Whip Cracker ran again two weeks later upped to 10f in another Listed race at Newmarket. He was too keen and weakened so I’m not surprised Hughes has decided to come back in trip.

Usually I swerve handicap debutants but this horse has already run in a decent sized field in a Listed race so I am making an exception. He has a favoured high draw, his best run suggests that a mark of 101 could be workable and he has form on quickish ground. At odds of 28/1, Whip Cracker is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Whip Cracker e/w @ 28/1 (4 places 1/4)

5.40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 2)

Oisin Murphy is in rare form at the moment and he could get a good spin on Bellum Justum here. This horse first caught my eye when I was putting Inisherin up for the Guineas. He beat Kevin Ryan’s charge (now fav for the Commonwealth Cup) in that 8f maiden on good to firm ground and I was keen to see how he got on when stepped up to Listed company on his return at Epsom.

The son of Sea The Stars duly went and won that race, beating Chief Little Rock into third. He went out and won a G3 next time out and is 12/1 for the King Edward on Friday. Andrew Balding decided to head back to Epsom for the big one and while he ran respectably, Bellum Justum looked like he didn’t stay on the rain softened ground and he weakened into seventh.

The return to 10F is a big plus for this colt and the good to firm ground will suit him better than the good to soft at Epsom. I was surprised to see him as big as 20/1 when I had a look at the odds this evening and at that price, he has to be worth chancing e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Bellum Justum e/w @ 20/1

6.15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

We backed Greatgadian for the AW Champs Mile final at Newcastle back in March. He ran a shocker that day but he has been freshened up and that, combined with his form on fast ground at Ascot, has convinced me to go in on him for small stakes again.

This son of Siyouni has a decent record when fresh. When he is returning from breaks of 59 days or more, he has career form figures of 25141. All his most recent form is on artificial surfaces but he has run some more than decent races in turf handicaps, including at this meeting.

Two years ago he ran a nice enough race to be beat 7L in the Hunt Cup here over a mile off 102. A couple of months later he ran a blinder to finish 1.75L behind Jungle Cove here, again over a mile, off a mark of 101. His only run at Ascot over 7f came all the way back in 2020 on his debut and he again ran well, finishing third beat 4L.

Course Form

Overall, his career form figures at Ascot read 3/11/3/2/15 so he has run well there more often than not. He is also going to be racing off an effective mark of 89 with Aidan Keeley’s claim, so he’ll be 13lbs lower than he was in the 2022 Hunt Cup and 12lbs lower than when placed twice later on in 2022.

He wasn’t fresh when running in handicaps here at the last two meetings so hopefully, the decision to give him an 83 day break pays dividends. The way this week has gone so far, keep stakes small, but at 66/1 I think Greatgadian could outrun those odds.

2024 Royal Ascot Thursday Tip: Greatgadian e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Preview

What a trainwreck Tuesday was. Cairo got badly outpaced in the Queen Anne but to his credit he finished fairly well for eighth. Nascimento was given a Jamie Spencer special and though he finished 10th, it was an encouraging run. Makarova ran her heart out but the wrong tactics were employed. Alyanaabi finished fifth, Knight finished tenth and we saved the worst until last with Lucander. Hopefully today goes better, Dave’s 2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday preview is below.

2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)

Our first 2yo bet of the meeting, Nascimento, ran on well but failed to get into the shake up in the Coventry. We’ll try again in this 5f contest which is restricted to 2yo fillies only. This race has been a happy hunting ground for the Americans in the past. Since 2015 the prize has gone stateside four times, with Wesley Ward responsible for three of those wins (he also won it in 2009).

The sole US representative this year is Ultima Grace. Trained by Ward, Joel Rosario will ride and she is an 11/1 poke. She hacked up over 4.5f on the dirt at Keeneland on debut, winning by 3.75L and showing lots of speed. The daughter of American Pharoah is drawn in stall 17 and she’ll likely go hard from the front.

No Easy Lead

However, she is unlikely to get an easy lead and if she does, she will probably have gone too hard early doors. She is drawn next door to the favourite, Make Haste, and Diego Dias’ Blue Point filly also displayed plenty of speed on her debut at Naas. She won that by over 3L but the form doesn’t look particularly strong.

The one I’ll take a chance on at a decent e/w price is Betty Clover. Georgia Dobie rides for Eve Johnson Houghton and she is 2/2 on good ground. She could only finish second on soft ground at Salisbury second time up but she bounced back returned to a sounder surface in a Listed heat at York on her last start.

She is drawn in stall 15, right beside the Ward and Dias speedsters. Those two should give this hold up sort a nice tow into the race and the daughter of Time Test should also relish the rattling quick ground. Judging from her York win, she might be even better suited by the stiffer test at Ascot as she needed every inch of the 5f on the Knavesmire. I think Georgia Dobie is an underrated jockey, hopefully she can hit the frame on Betty Clover at odds of 18/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Betty Clover e/w @ 18/1 (5 places)

3.05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)

A dozen will go to post for this Group 2 and four of them are Galileo 3yos trained by Aidan O’Brien. To be honest, this race isn’t making a whole lot of appeal from an e/w perspective. I can’t really make a case for any of the big priced runners and I’m not going to just put one up for the sake of it.

If Mina Rashid was still 25s I’d be half tempted by him but those odds have long gone. It’s going to be a long week and there’s going to be better betting races than this in the coming days. No bet.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet

3.45 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)

Royal Dress won for us at 33/1 earlier this season and she was unlucky not to follow up at Epsom. She was repeatedly denied a clear run and in the end, she had to settle for third, 0.75L behind Breege. She is 10/1 today but all her best form is on softer ground than she’ll get here.

Back in fourth in that Epsom contest was Julia Augusta. She was only 2L behind Breege (12/1 here) and 1.25L behind Royal Dress, yet she is as big as 50/1 for this contest. David O’Meara’s daughter of Ulysses was only reeled in late on at Epsom and Jason Hart dropped his whip so the run probably deserves to be marked up.

Close To Black Type

This 5yo mare has gone very close to earning black type on her last two starts. On her penultimate run at Kempton (8f) she finished fourth in a Listed race, just 1.5L behind the winner Adelaise. On those two runs I think her rating of 97 underrates her and in my opinion, she is easily a 100+ horse.

The slight drop back in trip should suit her today and so should this quicker ground. She hacked up in a Thirsk maiden on her first run on good ground and she also ran a fine race on her sole start on good to firm ground in a Newbury Handicap back in 2022. Danny Tudhope takes over in the plate, hopefully he can steer Julia Augusta into the places at odds of 40/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Julia Augusta e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

4.25 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)

This race revolves around Auguste Rodin. Aidan O’Brien’s son of Deep Impact is a boom or bust character and he seems to be pretty hard to predict. He was no match for White Birch on his last start at the Curragh (10f gd/yld) but it was a better run than he produced when finishing stone last over in Meydan back in March. Odds of 15/8 could look generous if he does turn up at his best but he isn’t the most reliable of horses.

Inspiral was turned over in the Lockinge on her return but John Gosden said she needed that run. She won three G1s on the spin last season after finishing second in the Queen Anne. She proved she stays 10f on a flat track by winning at the Breeders’ Cup but this track will provide a sterner test of her stamina. The ground will suit her though and it’ll be fascinating to see how well she sees the race out.

French Raider

The one I was going to side with here is the French raider, Blue Rose Cen. Like Survie, this filly is by Churchill and while she has won on testing ground, her best wins have come at today’s trip of 10f on fast ground. She absolutely hosed up on good/good to firm in places in the Prix De Diane last June at Chantilly (10f gd) and she then signed off for the season by winning the Prix de L’Opera on good to firm at Longchamp in October.

I’d imagine she needed the run on her seasonal comeback at Longchamp last month. She was only 2L behind Horizon Dore and she had already had three runs before that race. Blue Rose Cen should improve plenty with that outing under her belt and she’ll have the assistance of the top class Christophe Soumillon in the saddle. Unfortunately, she has shortened into single figure odds from 12/1 so I won’t be putting her up, but I do think she has solid e/w claims.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: No Bet

5.05 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)

A thirty runner cavalry charge and usually, a middle to high draw is an advantage. We backed Aerion Power in this last year and he ran a huge race to finish fourth. However, he was effectively running off 92 with Harry Davies’ claim and he is in off 100 today. He has also been drawn in stall number one so the percentage call is to leave him alone on this occasion.

My plan to wait until this morning to do the preview has backfired somewhat. I was planning on putting Crack Shot up at 25s but his price has collapsed. So, instead, we’ll have to row back in behind long time friend of the blog, Ropey Guest.

Run For Our Money

We’ve been backing this horse since his 2yo days and he almost always gives us a run for our money. Last year at York he finally won a big handicap and thankfully, we were on at 40/1. Since then, he has held his form really well.

The win came off 95 and he’s five pounds higher here, but he was only beat 2L on his return here over 7f last month off 101 so I’m not too worried about his mark. He was beat just 1L off 99 in the Balmoral over C&D back in October, finishing 0.75L ahead of Docklands who was running off 104. That form looks alright now after his fine run in the Queen Anne.

On his last five starts he’s been sent off at 40/1 (won), 20/1, 28/1 (beat 2.25L), 40/1 (2nd beat 1L) and 33/1 (5th beat 2L). He’s 33/1 today and with seven places on offer, Ropey Guest is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Ropey Guest e/w @ 33/1 (7 places) NB

5.40 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Fillies’ Handicap)

Last year we managed to find Villanova Queen at 25/1 in this contest. She won off 99 that day under Colin Keane and she is back to defend her crown off just a pound higher. All five of her starts since then have come in stakes company and she’s been beaten around 5L in four of them. Has Jessie Harrington had this race in mind ever since winning last year? It’s possible, and she has a nice draw too in stall 24.

Aurora Dawn is another interesting one off just 81. She carries a lovely racing weight and she got no run at Goodwood last time. She relishes fast ground and it would be no surprise if she were to hit the frame under Saffie Osborne. Unfortunately, the money is coming for her and she’s as short as 11/1 with some firms now.

Pearl Can Shine

However, the one I’ll side with is Mystic Pearl for Haggas and Marquand. This daughter of Invincible Spirit ran a lovely race over this C&D last month. She had a couple of below average runs in G2 company over in Dubai in the early part of the year but she should be a lot more at home in handicap company.

In that race here last time out she finished close up in third off 97. Tom Marquand didn’t exactly throw the kitchen sink at her in the closing stages and it looked to my eye like she finished with a fair bit left in the tank. If it was a sighter for this race, it couldn’t have worked out much better with the handicapper leaving her mark alone. On her Sandown Listed win last July she should be capable of winning off her current rating so at 28/1, Mystic Pearl is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Mystic Pearl e/w @ 28/1 (5 places) NAP

6.15 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)

We may as well swing for the fences here in this 27 runner sprint. This race often throws up a big priced winner and I’m going to take a punt on Calyxoh for Billy Loughnane and Jane Chapple-Hyam. By the hugely promising sire Calyx, this lad has run twice, both over 6f.

He was reeled in close to home on debut on good ground at Newmarket, losing out to Camera Shy by a head. Then, on softer ground at Leicester he again showed plenty of speed before running out of petrol inside the last furlong and fading into fourth.

On the evidence of those two runs, he looks well worth trying over this minimum trip. His dam was second in a G2 on good to firm at Ascot so I am hoping this ground will bring about a big improvement on his last effort. Billy Loughnane will be on cloud nine after his win in the Coventry yesterday, hopefully he can steer Calyxoh into the frame too at odds of 66/1.

2024 Royal Ascot Wednesday Tip: Calyxoh e/w @ 66/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos

Survie A Lively Outsider At Chantilly

I am glad we kept the powder dry on Saturday. I like the look of a filly in the Prix De Diane Longines tomorrow and I think she might outrun her odds of 40/1. Our last French fancy, Mondo Man, ran a cracker for us in the French Derby. Hopefully this filly can go one place better and land the each way money on Sunday.

Survie is a daughter of Churchill who is trained by Arc winning handler Nicolas Clement. Her Le Havre dam Sotteville was pretty decent and her three best runs in stakes company (including a Listed win) all came on quick ground. 

Her sire won the Guineas on good to firm and so far, his winner to runners strike rate on quick ground is 28%, compared to 13% on heavy and 15% on soft. It is good to firm at Chantilly tomorrow and I think that is what this filly wants.

Bottomless

Survie ran twice as a two year old with both runs coming on the all weather. Those races were of average quality and she didn’t win either by much, but she won them in very cosy fashion. Clement stepped her markedly up in class on her seasonal return at Longchamp (9f hvy) and she ran a very nice race in that Group 3, meeting trouble in running and staying on nicely under tender handling for third on bottomless ground.

She finished 6L behind Dare To Dream in that contest but when upped in trip to 10f on much better ground in a Longchamp G2 (gd/fm), she turned the form around. 

This time, she was again given a very easy time by Stephane Pasquier and just like on her previous start, she ran on strongly close to home to finish third, just 1.5L behind Birthe and nearly 2l in front of Dare To Dream. Incidentally, War Chimes was back in fifth and she ran third in the Oaks on her next outing.

How Big Is Her Engine?

In my opinion, this horse has yet to be asked for her true maximum effort. She’s only been tapped with the whip four or five times total in her four races to date and she still looked a touch green in the final furlong at Longchamp last time. Given that this is a Group 1, surely Stephane Pasquier will finally try to find out how big an engine she truly has.

Maybe she’ll come up short, but the form of her last run looks ok to me. She should relish the ground, she stays the trip so at odds of 40/1, it is worth chancing Survie e/w.

2024 Prix de Diane Longines Tip: Survie e/w @ 40/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

Makarova Worth A Punt At Ascot

Our last bet on the blog narrowly missed out on a place in France. Mondo Man stayed on really well from the back to finish fifth in the Prix du Jockey Club, just a neck away from landing the e/w money. I have another big priced ante-post fancy for the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and I’m hoping she can land the e/w cash at odds of 50/1.

Needed The Run

We backed Makarova on her seasonal return at Newmarket back in April. She clearly needed the run that day and the way she was ridden suggested that connections had another day in mind. When this mare is at her best, she is held up for a late run.

At Newmarket she was ridden more aggressively than usual but on her next start in France she was dropped out early. She ran on really well to finish 2.5L behind Ponntos in that Longchamp G3 (5f sft). I am not surprised that she is being kept to 5f now because her best form is over that trip.

Rock Solid 5F Form

Last season the daughter of Acclamation ran a massive race on nice ground in the Prix de L’Abbaye (5f gd). She was beat just 1.75L behind Highfield Princess and she was upsides the likes of Get Ahead and Aesop’s Fables (16s for this). 0.75L behind her was Kerdos, an 11/1 shot for this.

Makarova’s general form over 5f on decent ground is mustard. She has never been beaten more than 2.5L over 5f on good to soft or quicker, including excellent efforts in the Abbaye and also in the Nunthorpe when she ran on well for fourth, beat 2.25L for the win and less than a length behind Bradsell in third, the winner of this race last season.

She ran a nice race on her sole previous visit to Ascot, finishing sixth of fifteen in last year’s Champion Sprint. The trip that day was 6f and the ground was soft, I think quicker ground and 5f at Ascot will play more to her strengths. As an added bonus, Ed Walker is in scintillating form at the moment, hopefully that continues through next week. At odds of 50/1, Makarova is worth backing e/w.

King Charles III Stakes Royal Ascot Tip: Makarova e/w @ 50/1

Take Me Up To Mondo

After all the speculation, the Epsom Derby turned into a City of Troy procession. The son of Justify silenced his many doubters (including me) but it might be a bit too soon to say he’s a better sire than Galileo as Aidan did after the race.

Our selection Deira Mile ran with great credit considering where he came from. He just got up for fourth and we collected on our e/w NB bet at 25/1. Tomorrow, the spotlight will be on Chantilly for the French version, the Prix du Jockey Club. This time the trip is 10f and, unlike it says on the Racing Post site, the ground will be good to soft.

Under The Radar

Fourteen have been declared and it looks to me like one may have slipped under the radar at huge odds. Mondo Man will be ridden by William Buick and P&J Brandt’s son of Mondialiste has the form to hit the frame here on ground that I think will suit him well.

This colt hasn’t been seen since running really well in a Longchamp G3 at the start of April (9f hvy). He finished 1.25L behind the winner Atlast but he got going too late and I’m not sure he was in love with the ground. On that evidence, the step up to 10f looks sure to suit and he had First Look and Sunway (both shorter here) behind him.

That wasn’t the first time he shaped as though further would suit. On his first start in pattern company on the all weather at Chantilly he was also strong at the finish, despite Cristian Demuro pulling the neck off him for nearly a furlong after the start. He finished just a head behind the runner up Wootton Verni, a horse that went on to beat Sunway by a neck on his next start.

Pedigree Clues

Mondo Man isn’t by the most illustrious sire in the race but he is from a decent family. His two brothers both won races at trips ranging from 8f to 10f and his dam, Moghrama, is a half to 8f Group 2 winner Mythical Magic (good ground) and the Nell Gwyn winner Esentepe, also on good ground. Mondialiste won a G1 on fast ground over 10f so there is every chance he is going to stay this trip.

The booking of William Buick catches the eye too. One of Mondo Man’s part owners is Norwegian so perhaps he pulled a few strings to get Buick on board. Stall 9 won’t be an inconvenience as this lad will be dropped out to come with a late run, hopefully Buick can time his challenge right and hit the frame. At 33/1, Mondo Man is the e/w selection.

2024 Prix Du Jockey Club Tip: Mondo Man e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

-DaveStevos

2024 Naas Royal Ascot Trials Day Preview

Witch Hunter saved us from a wipeout on Saturday. It’s funny, I was more confident than usual with today’s tips but as often happens when that is the case, most of them ran stinkers. I wasn't too discouraged by Queen Of Mougins though, I think we'll get our money back on her in a fillies' only Listed race. I fancy a couple to run well at double figure odds in Ireland tomorrow, 2024 Naas Ascot Trials Day tips are below.

2.05 – Sole Power Sprint Stakes (Listed)

If she is even 90% fit for her seasonal reappearance, Ano Syra can outrun her odds of 10/1 here. John Feane’s mare came onto my radar last year and we backed her when she placed behind Moss Tucker in the G3 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last August. 

She was only 2.25L behind the winner, she was a nose behind subsequent G3 winner Go Athletico and she beat the 112 rated Commanche Falls by almost 2L.  Dylan Browne McMonagle was on board for that fine run and he gets the leg up for the first time since today

The ground was properly good that day and she flopped the next twice when there was juice in the ground. The daughter of Kodiac is best on a sound surface, just like it was when she finished third behind Art Power on her seasonal reappearance last season at the Curragh in the Greenlands Stakes (6f gd).

Goes Well Fresh

She won on her return to action as a 3yo too, over 6f on good ground at Naas. She has run twice here since, fourth on yielding over 6f in another handicap and then beat 2.75L into fourth in a Listed contest on good ground (6f)..

I think Aesop’s Fables rating of 111 is a bit generous and apart from him, I can’t see any other horses that Ano Syra should be afraid of. This could be the season that Ano Syra finally gets a win at pattern level, hopefully today is the day. At odds of 10/1, she is the each way selection.

2024 Naas Ascot Trials Day Tip: Ano Syra e/w @ 10/1

4.30 – Royal Ascot Trials Day Handicap (0-95)

Jessica Harrington has been firing in winners left, right and centre this season and she runs two here. On jockey bookings, it looks like Raknah is her main hope. Shane Foley rides the daughter of Blue Point but all her best form is on the all-weather. Her two turf runs have been underwhelming and I prefer the chances of Going Remote, who pitches up here off a mark of 77.

By Kodiac, this gelding made his handicap debut over C&D three weeks ago on yielding ground. I’m not too sure that sort of ground suits him and I’m also hoping he may have needed the run. He is of big interest today on the form of his second start over 7f when he ran a cracker in a Naas maiden behind Bright Stripes.

Strong Form

Andy Oliver’s charge was getting 4lbs from Going Remote and he was only 2L behind him and closing at the line. He has since won at Listed level and is rated 100+. Gesture was third and he’s since won twice on the all weather off 72 and by 5L off 76. Goal Exceeded in fifth won a maiden next time out and is now rated mid 80s. Take Me To Church was seventh and she won the Madrid handicap and is now rated 100.

It was an excellent run by Going Remote and this will be the best ground he has encountered since then. It is a bit concerning that Dusty Foley rides his stablemate but Nathan Crosse is 18/136 when riding for Harrington with an eye catching level stakes profit of +165.46 if you had a quid on every ride. 

It looked like a mile would suit when he ran in that 7f maiden here and a mark of 77 looks workable on that form, so, at 25/1, Going Remote is the e/w selection.

2024 Naas Ascot Trials Day Tip: Going Remote e/w @ 25/1 (4 places); 0.5pt e/w double with Ano Syra.

-DaveStevos