Top Boy (16/1) went close for the blog on Wednesday, and for him to miss out on a place was frustrating to say the least. He ended up being beaten less than a length for the win, and surely his turn is not far away. He is more than capable of winning off his current mark, and with a little more good fortune he will be back in the winners enclosure sooner rather than later.
The big race today is the Irish Derby, and I have already posted my analysis and selection for that race which can be read below. There is plenty of good action on the other side of the Irish Sea this Saturday too, and a horse that looks overpriced is Master Carpenter in the Listed Midsummer Stakes at Windsor (3.20).
Trained by Rod Millman, he was highly tried on his first couple of runs this year, reappearing in the Group 1 Lockinge (8F) and then trying his luck in a Group 3 (7F) at Haydock. He was well beaten in both events, and dropped into handicap company on his last run.
He ran off a mark of 104 over a mile on fast ground at Ayr, and it marked a proper return to form. He was repeatedly denied a clear run from the two furlong pole, and showed a nice turn of foot when he did find daylight about a hundred yards from home to finish 3rd, with seemingly plenty left in the tank.
He is already a winner at both Listed (8F) and Group 3 (9F) level, but both these triumphs came on easy ground last year. This might be the explanation for his current price of 16/1, as he definitely has the reputation of being a soft ground specialist. I'm not convinced though, as that last run at Ayr came on good to firm and he earned the highest RPR of his career. The conditions will be similar tomorrow at Windsor, and I see no reason why a repeat of his last run won't see him in the shake up. Kodi Bear gets a lot of weight from his rivals and is the current favourite at 15/8. It is his first run of the season though, and if he is not fully tuned up Master Carpenter could be the one to capitalise.
Selection: 3.20 Windsor Master Carpenter (16/1) each way.
Tipster that loves big prices. Racing/NFL/Soccer/Rugby Twitter: @davestevos Biggest Winners: Goliath 33/1 Rage Of Bamby 20/1 Party Rock 33/1 Don't Touch It 40/1 Burning Brightly 33/1 Back Before Dawn 25/1 Court Frontier 20/1 Bilbo Bagins 20/1 Pacha Du Polder 20/1 Champagne Classic 25/1 Whatareudoingtome 20/1 Talismanic 20/1 Tower Bridge 40/1 Kilfenora 25/1 Lalor 16/1 Paper Lantern 14/1 Examiner 20/1 Romanised 40/1 Masar 20/1 Accidental Agent 33/1 Harry The Viking 28/1 Dragon Houdini 50/1
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