Royal Ascot Day 4

Another decent day yesterday for the blog with the first couple of winners of the meeting for us with Curvy and Time Test. Simenon ran a cracker too, but I was delighted for Galwayman  Graham Lee, who I have long admired and who is one of my favourite jockeys. I'm amazed one of the big money owners haven't snapped him up as a retained rider yet. He is criminally underrated and deserves all the success he gets.
Hopefully there is a winner or two in the preview today.

2.30 ALBANY STAKES (GROUP 3) 6 FURLONGS

Another sprint for the fillies to start proceedings on the penultimate day of the meeting, and it is an open race, with Illuminate from the Hannon yard currently a 7/2 favourite. Only one favourite has won in the last five years however, and this year there is a filly at generous odds that looks to have a great chance.
The filly in question is trained by Clive Cox and will be ridden by Oisin Murphy. Our Joy was beaten on her first run, but on reflection that was a more than decent effort given that her conqueror Kassia went on to run with credit behind Acapulco here in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.
That debut run was over 5F, and she would have won if the race was even just 10 yards longer. The step up to 6F should be ideal, her half brother Xtension was 2nd in the Coventry, and at her current odds of 12/1 she looks well worth an each way interest.

Selection: Our Joy (12/1) each way.

3.05 KING EDWARD VII STAKES (GROUP 2) 12 FURLONGS

Not a good race for favourites in recent years, with only one obliging in the last five renewals. Aidan O'Brien has a surprisingly poor record, with only one winner, which came back in 2004. John Gosden has had plenty of joy, winning two of the last four, with three wins in total. Both yards are represented tomorrow, and they are not without their chances.
Stravagante is the current favourite at 5/2 for Frankie and the Stoute yard. He is an extremely well bred son of Rip Van Winkle with no shortage of black type on the dam side of his pedigree. The trip should be fine, and on the evidence of his last run he is a horse on the up. That was only a handicap though, which he won off 89, so he is taking a huge step up in class today. 5/2 is too short for me,
The one I like most at the current prices is the Godolphin representative Festive Fare, an exceedingly well bred son of Teofilo (what a horse he was!) and out of a half sister to Dilshaan.
Unraced at two, He took a maiden at Lingfield on the all weather on his first start (8F) from a stablemate by the slimmest of margins, before winning in the manner of a useful horse in a handicap at Kempton.
 However he stepped up markedly on those efforts on his next start in the listed Feilden Stakes, chasing home Disegno, Peacock and Golden Horn, who have all run well at Group level since. He has been put away since, obviously with today in mind, and I can see him holding off the challenge from Ballydoyle and giving Charlie Appleby and the boys in blue something to cheer about.

Selection: Festive Fare (5/1)

3.40 COMMONWEALTH CUP (GROUP 1) 6 FURLONGS

A new race for this year, and it should be some spectacle. The sight of eighteen of the fastest three year old race horses in the world thundering across the hallowed Ascot turf at breakneck speed will be something to behold and I envy those that will be there at the track to witness it. It is a truly international event, with contenders from Ireland, The UK, France, and The USA.
The current favourite is one of the American contenders, Wesley Ward's speedball Hootenanny, and given that he won at the meeting last year, his trainer is in great form and his jockey, Ryan Moore, is riding out of his skin.it is unsurprising he is favourite. He is currently 7/2 and if you are going to support him do it early, as I can see him being backed off the boards.
The one I like at a price is a filly that hasn't even managed to win this year, but she has shown plenty of ability in her defeats. She was beaten into fifth behind the re-opposing Tiggy Wiggy as a two year old in the Cheveley Park, and ran a lovely race on her seasonal reappearance behind Limato here over today's trip and ground. She was dropped to 5F next time in a listed heat at York, where a slow start put paid to any chance she had, and I'm sure a fair few fingers were burned as she finished a close second at the skinny price of 6/5.
 She is better judged on her second to Limato first time up, and it is interesting to note that Gosden often talked about how big a filly Tendu was as a 2yo, so you would imagine there would be improvement to come this year. She is a full sister to Showcasing, and a half sister to Camacho, so she is defintely bred to be a Group level filly. I think she will fulfil that potential today, and looks well worth backing each way at the generous odds of 14/1.

Selection: Tendu (14/1) each way (4 places most bookies).

4.20 CORONATION STAKES (GROUP 1) 8 FURLONGS

A fascinating little race, with only eight fillies going to post and nearly all could have a case made for them. Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore supply the favourite, Found, who can currently be backed at 11/8. With the yard and jockey in scintillating form she is difficult to oppose.
I'm never usually one to shirk a challenge though, particularly when it involves taking on a short priced favourite, and my idea of a filly that has the credentials to give the O'Brien hotpot a fright is the Martyn Meade trained Irish Rookie.He has already sent out Kurland this week to run a cracker in the Queen Mary.
 This filly made her seasonal return, after an unbeaten two race 2yo campaign which included a Listed victory, in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. She ran a decent race in sixth, but her next run, in the French equivalent, was much more like it. She finished an excellent second to Erveyda, who also runs today. I think this filly is improving, and back on  quicker ground now fully fit she could really make an impact.
She is a beautifully bred, a daughter of  Group 1 winning sire Azamour and out of a half sister to the useful Bravo Echo and Well Dressed. Her grand-dam is a half sister to the 2000 Guineas winner Zafonic, so she lacks nothing on the pedigree front.
 She was originally headed for the French Oaks over 10F last week after her effort at Longchamp, but according to her trainer she has been showing so much speed at home that she was supplemented for this instead. It could prove to be a wise decision.

Selection: Irish Rookie (18/1) each way.


5.00  DUKE OF EDINBURGH STAKES (HANDICAP) 12 FURLONGS

Nineteen go to post in a typical minefield of a handicap. No strong fancy for me here, but one that could run well at silly odds is Peter Hedgers Continuum. He finished in midfield last year, but was only beaten 6 lengths by Arab Spring. Nothing went right for him that day though, he was hampered early on, and with better luck he might have finished even closer.
He ran off 98 that day, was dropped to 96, the same mark as today, and hosed up in the Silver Cup, a Listed handicap, at York. The trip was 14F that day, which proves he has the stamina that will be needed to run well in a race that will most likely be run at a furious pace. Tom Marquand takes off an invaluable 5lbs too, so effectively he races off 91.
He has run with credit on both occasions over this trip at Ascot, including a good fourth to Gatewood in a Listed contest on his 2nd run last year, finishing in close proximity to Pethers Moon and Elidor, with the likes of Harris Tweed and Cap O'Rushes in behind. That looks pretty decent form to me in the context of this race.
He will be dropped in from his wide draw. If they go a furious gallop and the leaders start to wane, don't be too surprised to see Continuum finishing fast. He will need the race run to suit, and the gaps to come at the right time, but if they do and the stars align he is capable of running a big race at 40/1.

Selection: Continuum (40/1) Each Way. (33s Powers 5 places).


5.35  QUEEN'S VASE (LISTED RACE) 16 FURLONGS

No real strong fancy here. Great Glen a token selection to appreciate the step up in trip in a race that does not exactly set the pulse racing.

Selection: Great Glen (10/1)