A very disappointing run from yesterday's selection, but hopefully I have found one to make up for that disappointment today. The horse I like goes in the big sprint at 3.45(York) and is a three year old filly, Explosive Lady, trained by Karl Burke and partnered by Ben Curtis, who has ridden her on four of her five starts so far.
This filly won her maiden on debut in taking fashion over 5F in Nottingham, and her shrewd trainer wasted no time in upping her in trip and class next time out. She ran a cracking race in the Group 3 Princess Margaret at Royal Ascot over 6F, finishing an unlucky 3rd behind Osaila after being denied a clear run at a crucial time. She was then dropped into listed company at Ripon, going down by less than a length to Izzthatright. Mr. Burke is adamant she should have won that day, and blames himself for the defeat having instructed Curtis to ride her differently than usual.
Her next start, the final one of her 2yo campaign, came in a traditionally strong sales race at The Curragh worth 82k to the winner, and she ran another superb race in 2nd, with Realtra just behind her in 3rd, a horse that has since won a handicap off 93. There was 29 runners in that race, and she showed that the hurly burly of a big field holds no fears for her, which is very important in the context of today's race.
She was reported to have badly needed the run on her reappearance this season, and yet she still managed to finish a creditable 3rd in a Listed event at Haydock. She has been allocated a mark of 95 for her handicap debut today, and I feel this may underestimate her abilities. Mr.Burke agrees, and hopes 'for a good run off 95 as I feel she's a good bit better than that'.
She is drawn in stall 17 today, and whilst this may be a hindrance there are winners that have come from similar draws in the past so it is not the end of the world. The Martyn Meade colt Scalzo looks like he could be pretty special, but he has it all to prove and today will be the toughest test of his short career. He is priced up at around 3/1, whereas Explosive Lady is available to back at 18/1.
Given that the Burke filly's form stands up to scrutiny, she has experience of big fields and is fancied to run well by her trainer, I think she has to be worth an interest each way, especially with a number of bookmakers offering 1/4 the odds for the first 5 home.
Selection: Explosive Lady e/w 18/1 (5 places various bookies)
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