Royal Ascot Day 5 Preview

A train wreck of a day for the blog yesterday with not us not even managing a place. A couple of the selections lost their races at the start, and the rest were just plain not good enough. Onwards and upwards as the saying goes though, and hopefully we will have better luck on the final day.

2.30 CHESHAM STAKES (LISTED RACE) 7 FURLONGS

A Listed contest to get proceedings under way, and this race has not been a happy hunting ground for favourites in recent years, with just one winning since 2009. Aidan O'Brien was the trainer of that horse, and he supplies the market leader again this time around, with the aptly named Ballydoyle, who is currently a best priced 7/4. Ryan Moore takes the ride and this well bred daughter of Galileo is entitled to maximum respect.
She is a full sister to black type performers Misty For Me (dual Group 1 winner as a 2yo) and Twirl, and her dam is out of a half sister to Fasilyev. She lacks nothing on the pedigree front, and the two horses that have run since finishing ahead of her on debut (6F) have both won since. She finished 4th that day, and shaped as if a step up in trip would suit.
Mick Halford also sends a raider across the Irish Sea, Tonkinese, and he has arguably the strongest piece of form in the race. He was beaten just two lengths by Air Force Blue on debut, and the 2nd and 8th in that race won next time out. Tonkinese, who finished 3rd, also won next time out, and he did it in some style over today's trip on fast ground at Leopardstown.
Of the remainder, Love The Kitten for Wesley Ward ought to appreciate the step up to 7F after being outpaced on both her starts over 4.5F in the States. Simon Crisford has Red Artist for Fergie, and he is very nicely bred, his dam being a half sister to a few very decent types. He could be one for each way backers.
However, Tonkinese has the best form in the book, is nicely bred, and at his current odds of 4/1 he has to rate as the value bet against the O'Brien horse given their respective achievements on the track to date. Red Artist is the dark horse, and could give those at the head of the market something to think about.

Selections: Tonkinese (4/1) win Red Artist (14/1) each way.

3.05 WOLFERTON HANDICAP (LISTED) 10 FURLONGS

Two favourites have won this in the last five years, and in recent times it has been won by useful performers like Gatewood and Rainbow Peak who went onto win races at Group level afterwards. It is an extremely tricky puzzle to solve this year, and finding the winner is a thankless task. Stakes should be kept to a minimum here.
One that I think might run well at a price is  Educate, for Ismail Mohammed and ridden by Adam Kirby. Has been slowly regaining his form this season, and his last run behind The Corsican in a Listed race at Goodwood (10F) was his best of the season so far. He is just a pound higher than for his greatest victory in The Cambridgeshire, and a big field holds no fears.
He will be held up, and is always the case with these sort of runners he will need the gaps to appear at the right times. If he gets the rub of the green Educate could well teach his rivals a lesson.

Selection: Educate (18/1) each way.

3.40 HARDWICKE STAKES (GROUP 2) 12 FURLONGS

This race has been farmed by the Stoute operation in recent years, and he has sent out five of the last ten winners. He fires three bullets this year, and the favourite is last years winner Telescope, who will again be ridden by Ryan Moore.
Eagle Top for Dettori and Gosden head the opposition, and look the most likely to capitalise if the favourite has an off day. Postponed for Cumani and Kirby is the third of the horses at the top of the market, and the only other runner of possible interest is Snow Sky for Stoute, who lowered the colours of Brown Panther over two furlongs further at York last time out.
However, it is difficult to look beyond the favourite Telescope and he is clearly the one they all have to beat.

Selection: Telescope (5/4)

4.20 DIAMOND JUBLIEE STAKES (GROUP 1) 6 FURLONGS

I have written an in depth preview for the feature race and you can find it here http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/


5.00 WOKINGHAM STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 6 FURLONGS

Another spectacular big field sprint, and a difficult race to try and find the winner in. Richard Fahey and Kevin Ryan have taken the prize up North on the last couple of occasions, and there are a few Northern raiders of interest in the field again today.
Ryan Moore has been booked by Fahey for Tatilsu, which suggests that a big run is expected. He will need a career best to win. Rene Mathis also runs for Fahey, and should appreciate the return to this trip having been campaigned at 7F so far this season.
Watchable is another from up North with obvious claims for the O'Meara yard, and with Spencer in the saddle he could well do some damage.
However, the one I like at a price is a horse with Northern roots that is now trained in Newmarket. Suzi's Connoisseur is an intriguing contender, and showed clear signs of returning to something like his best last time out. He is a Listed winner over this trip on good ground, and also bagged a handicap off a mark of 100 over 7F on heavy ground at Leicester. He is a pound lower today, and he wasn't beaten all that far over 7F here last time, storming into the lead two furlongs out before fading just inside the final furlong. At his current odds of 33/1 he could be one for a few pennies each way.

Selection: Suzi's Connoisssseur (33/1) each way

5.35 QUEEN ALEXANDRA STAKES (CLASS 2) 21 FURLONGS

A trappy enough affair, and no strong  fancy here, Teak is a proven stayer, and is a token selection at 18/1.

Selection: Teak (18/1) each way.