Irish Derby Preview

Coolmore and Aidan O'Brien have farmed this race over the past decade, and Jim Bolger is the only trainer to break their stranglehold since 2006 with the ill fated Trading Leather back in 2013. There are eight intended runners at the time of writing, and four of them hail from Ballydoyle. Unusually though the favourite does not hail from those quarters this year, with Jack Hobbs currently odds on for John Gosden and Godolphin after a superb 2nd to Golden Horn in the Epsom equivalent.
Two of the past three years has seen fields of only five horses going to post, and in my opinion the race has lost a lot of the appeal it once had, particularly from a spectators perspective. Last year, of the five total participants O'Brien provided three, and back in 2014 he trained two of the five starters.
For me, diversity is a  massively important element of horse racing, even at the highest level, and having a single trainer responsible for fifty or sixty odd percent of the starters in a race as important and prestigious as the Irish Derby can't be healthy for the future of the event.
With Coolmore owning the most prolific middle distance sires, and Godolphin on a mission to buy up the best of the rest, the chance of a smaller operation breaking the monopoly looks less likely than ever at the present time, and also into the foreseeable future.
This year's heat sees Jack Hobbs heading the market after his excellent second to Golden Horn at Epsom. The Carbon Unit, Giovanni Canaletto, Kilimanjiro and Storm The Stars also all ran at Epsom, and will be looking to turn the tables on the Gosden horse. Storm The Stars got closest of these, and was four lengths behind Jack Hobbs in 3rd, with Giovanni Canaletto a further two lengths back in 4th. Neither horse had any real excuse on the day, and it is difficult to see either of them turning the tables at The Curragh. Perhaps Giovanni Canaletto has more scope to close the gap, seeing as the Derby was only his 2nd run of the season, but even if he does improve it is difficult to see him finding the six lengths required if Jack Hobbs run to form.
Perhaps the most likely challenger to Jack Hobbs is the Ballydoyle trained and Coolmore owned Highland Reel. This horse has had two runs this year, both in France and both on easy ground. His second run was a huge improvement on his first, as he chased home New Bay in the Prix Du Jockey Club (Group 1) at Chantilly over 10.5F, shaping as if the step up to today's trip of 12F would suit. He will be racing on fast ground at The Curragh for the first time this year, barring an unexpected deluge between now and Saturday, and this along with being upped in trip could eke out the required improvement to make the frame.
His Vintage Stakes (Group 2) win came on good to firm ground at Goodwood last year. He is a son of Galileo and has a plethora of excellent middle distance Australian performers in his pedigree on the dam side. Jockey bookings have yet to be confirmed for the O'Brien quartet, which also includes Oaks heroine Qualify, but if Moore opts for Highland Reel I can see his current best price of 6/1 collapsing in no time. At that price he looks a solid e/w bet once 8 runners remain in the field come Saturday evening, and I can see him giving the favourite plenty to think about.

Prediction: 1. Highland Reel.
                   2. Jack Hobbs.
                   3. Storm The Stars.