Royal Ascot Day 2

Confidence has been well and truly dented after a poor day for the blog yesterday. Able Friend was perhaps the biggest let down, and when the cameras showed him sweating up down at the start I knew my goose was cooked. It highlights the importance of waiting until the last possible moment if one is considering having a good bet on a horse, and I won't be making the same mistake again.

Below are my selections and a brief analysis for each race on Day 2 of the meeting. Hopefully they run better than yesterday's picks did!

2.30 JERSEY STAKES (GROUP 3) 7 FURLONGS

Favourites have obliged in the last two editions of this race, and interestingly they both had a very similar profile to today's hotpot Ivawood. In fact the last three winners have come here after placed efforts in the Irish 2000 Guineas, and the Hannon trained Ivawood has followed the same path. He also ran with credit in the English version at Newmarket, and on both occasions has shaped as if the drop down to 7F would be ideal.
Both Hannon and his jockey Richard Hughes are extremely bullish about this one's chances, and the two of them have described him as their banker of the meeting. He is currently priced up at 15/8, and is a worthy favourite. It is hard to see him being beaten, but one that might give him something to think about is the Mick Channon inmate Bossy Guest.
He was less than a length behind Ivawood in 4th at Newmarket having been sent off unfancied at 50/1, and crucially he gets 5lbs from the Hannon horse today. If he can repeat that run back down to 7F he must have a big chance. All his wins have come over 6F, but his run in the Guineas suggests that today's trip should be well within his compass. If short priced favourites are not your cup of tea, then Bossy Guest at 9/1 should give you a good run for your money.

Selections: Ivawood (15/8) win Bossy Guest (9/1) each way.

3.05 QUEEN MARY STAKES ( GROUP 2) 5 FURLONGS

Anthem Alexander obliged for favourite backers last year, but four double priced winners since 2005 show that this can be a tricky puzzle for punters to solve. Acapulco represents Wesley Ward (won this in 2009) and Coolmore with Ryan Moore on board, and he also sends out Bruised Orange who will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. Acapulco is currently shading favouritism at 4/1, and Ward has been bullish all week about this ones chances.
She was well beaten on debut though, and while Ward is adamant that she works like the best sprinter he has ever trained, I would rather see evidence on the course before believing the hype. 4/1 is too short for me and I fancy a couple that could run well at bigger odds.
Kassia is an intriguing contender, and she is bred to be fast, a daughter of Acclamation and half sister to Rufford, who was 2nd in the Mill Reef a couple of years ago. She was a good 2nd to today's rival Besharah (11/2) on her first run, and got her head in front next time out still showing signs of greenness and probably value for more than the final winning distance of a short head. With that experience under her belt, and more improvement possibly to come, I can see her running a good race at 20/1.
Kurland is the other horse that has caught my eye, and hails from the Martyn Meade stable, a yard that has been improving at a rate of knots in the past couple of years. His exploits with Irish Rookie show that he knows what it takes to succeed at this level, and his decision to go straight to Ascot with this filly after a facile maiden victory should be heeded. The form doesn't look overly strong, but she could only beat what was in front of her, and this daughter of Kheleyf could hit the frame today at 14/1.

Selections: Kassia (20/1) each way Kurland (14/1) each way


3.40 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (GROUP 2) 8 FURLONGS

No really strong view here. Integral looks too short to me, and Rizeena looks the value at 8/1 given her excellent record at the meeting.

Selection: Rizeena (8/1)


4.20 PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES  (GROUP 1) 10 FURLONGS

As open a renewal as the betting suggests, and difficult to rule out any runner with conviction. The clear form pick on last years exploits is the Grey Gatsby, who lowered the colours of Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. He also bagged the Prix Du Jockey Club, and a repeat of either of those runs would probably be sufficient today. 13/2 looks a big price to me and he looks almost certain to be in the first three.

Selection: The Grey Gatsby (13/2)

5.00 ROYAL HUNT CUP (HANDICAP) 8 FURLONGS

An absolute battle charge and unfortunately I do not have the time for a detailed in depth analysis. Two speculative suggestions are Baraweez each way at 25/1, for Brian Ellison and Colm O' Donoghue, and American Hope, a horse that has run well here in the past in big field handicaps, and could well do so again today. He is also a 25/1 shot for Mike Murphy and Shane Kelly.

Selections: Baraweez (25/1) e/w American Hope (25/1) e/w

5.35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP (LISTED) 8 FURLONGS

A listed handicap for the girls, and another near impossible puzzle for punters to solve. The one I like is Kodiva, for Charlie Hills and ridden by Oisin Murphy. She gets in off a mark of just 91 for her handicap debut, and that looks lenient to me given her strong form last year, which included a good second to Irish Rookie at listed level, who has since gone close in a Group 1 in France. If Hills has her primed for this return she should be well up to making an impact off this sort of mark, and at odds of 20/1 looks worth a little support each way.

Selection: Kodiva (20/1) e/w